Monday, May 20

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Presentation to Edmonton West Rotary Club

Updated 15 October 2020 with correction to Chart 24 in Slide presentation On Thursday 1 October, I gave the following Power Point presentation entitled "Alberta’s Halting Economic Recovery-  Implications for Alberta’s Public Finances" to a local group of Rotarians. It was a rather sobering and depressing presentation.   The presentation also gave me an opportunity to plug the edited collection A Sales Tax for Alberta: Why and How to published next year by Athabasca University Press.  In my view the present government is doing what a succession of provincial governments have done for decades: accept the myth that Alberta is defined solely by its economy and the economy IS  the exploration, mining, development and production of fossil fuels.  This mindset has clouded the decision-making ...
Agencies, Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics, Uncategorized

After waiting an extra 2 months 2019-20- some major surprises missed in February forecast

Updated 10 November 2020 In an earlier report on the crucial role played by the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in government finances, we highlighted the Commission's role in overseeing the North West Redwater Upgrader investment, commenced in the latter years of the Stelmach regime. We raised some doubts, given APMC's record with the North West Redwater Partnership  (NWRP), about its competence in negotiating with TC Energy on the Keystone XL project.  APMC is also the agency tasked with negotiating the Energy East commitment and the controversial oil-by rail contracts. With the two-month delay in the publication of the Government of Alberta's Annual Report and audited consolidated financial statements, the public  finally has been apprised that Alberta's budget shortfal...
Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan
Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Uni...
ATB Financial: how results compare
Agencies, ATB, Uncategorized

ATB Financial: how results compare

CAUTION: Writing this blog has been the most challenging undertaking since I began Albertarecessionwatch.com (now Abpolecon.ca) four years ago. Writing about a former employer and one of the "Crown jewels" of Alberta's public sector and knowing so many former colleagues still working at ATB creates a dilemma when examining critically this institution's financial condition. ATB's financial condition should be of interest to all Albertans who have a stake in the success, or failure, of this venerable institution.  This post has been frustrating to write because there is so much information available on banking institutions used to compare ATB's performance. The ocean of financial information has so many layers built up over years by both internal organizational dynamics as well as exter...
AIMCo faces first major test- Analysis and Opinion
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AIMCo faces first major test- Analysis and Opinion

Updated 3 May 2020, 4 May 2020, 18 May 2020 AIMCo’s board and management are facing troubling questions about how it has conducted its investment management strategy.  In 2016, the Institute for Public Economics published a paper I wrote that examined the success of the corporatization project. Prior to 2008, Alberta Investment Management, a division of the province's Finance department, provided investment management services to provincial public sector pension plans, to provincial agencies, and to the provincial government.  The paper was a preliminary assessment on how the new organization delivered on the promise made by previous Finance Ministers: namely, the organization would deliver returns in excess of those achieved by the previous governmental organization. ...
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Alberta Growth Mandate

In October 2015, the newly minted NDP government released their first budget. It was a difficult time for this rookie government as Alberta's economy was in free-fall and Calgary's economy was reeling. Finance Minister Joe Ceci sought something positive and the two major provincial financial agencies, reporting to the minister, were enlisted into a program to support deserving Alberta companies. According to Minister Ceci, there were three cornerstones in his maiden budget: 1) to stabilize public services, 2) a plan to balance the budget, and 3) to act on jobs and diversification. Included under jobs and diversification was a measure to mandate AIMCo "to focus a prudent but significant portion of our province’s Heritage Fund to directly invest in Alberta’s growth. Three perce...
Bill 22 – Important changes to ATB, AIMCo and ACFA- Updated
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Bill 22 – Important changes to ATB, AIMCo and ACFA- Updated

Immediate outrage from Alberta's official opposition greeted the introduction of the Reform of Agencies, Boards, and Commissions and Government Enterprises Act on Monday, 18 November. While the opposition NDP focused on the political aspects of the firing of Lorne Gibson- his position was abolished by the Act- careful study shows the legislation will have significant implications beyond the political party sphere. The 172 page omnibus bill, introduced by Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Travis Toews, is part of the legislation necessary to give effect to some of the 24 October budget announcements. This analysis and opinion piece is devoted to three of the most important financial institutions owned by the Alberta Crown. Before commenting on the details in Bill 22, it is i...
Energy Wars in the 1970s- Hyndman’s files
Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Uncategorized

Energy Wars in the 1970s- Hyndman’s files

Two more excerpts from the files of the late Lou Hyndman come from the mid 1970s. The disputes being addressed by senior political leaders followed soon after the OPEC oil embargo. The conflict which emerged between Ottawa and the consuming provinces (e.g. Ontario) and Alberta involved a bitter fight over which order of government would collect the lion's share of the rapid increase in the world price of oil. The first excerpt is from a speech given by the then Treasurer, Gordon Miniely at a finance ministers' conference. The second extract is from a speech, presumably authored, by J.Peter Meekison, a special intergovernmental affairs advisor and then deputy minister of Alberta's Federal and Intergovernmental Affairs department dated in December 1974. The speech is significant as ...
Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

Budget 2019- Analysis and Opinion

Genesis, analysis, investment imperative, rating agencies Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Trevor Toews was provided considerable advice as he prepared his October 2019 budget. The precursors included the NDP's "path to balance"- a Recovery built to Last, the UCP platform, Alberta Strong & Free, the report of the Blue Ribbon Panel (MacKinnon Report) and the Shadow Budget produced by the C.D. Howe Institute. In this report, we look at how the Alberta budget compares with these other "suggestions" or "guideposts." Then we examine the "big gamble" that underlines the UCP budget- if they create the environment for investment, will it come? Finally, we ask how the rating agencies will evaluate the UCP's initial stewardship of Alberta's public finances. Genesis Unlik...
Populism and its Discontents-
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Populism and its Discontents-

2019 Parkland Institute Conference Between November 15 and 17, the annual Parkland Conference is taking place at the University of Alberta. The conference examines the currents of populism evident in Canada and abroad. Keynote speakers include Professor of Philosophy (University of Toronto) Mark Kingwell and Erika Shaker of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. For for more information on sessions and other speakers including registration choices go to Parkland Institute.