Tuesday, December 24

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Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act: Analysis and Opinion

Updated 18 May 2021 On 25 March 2021 Canada’s Supreme Court issued arguably its most crucial judgment in a decade. The case arose from three appeals from the high courts of Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan respecting the constitutionality of the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act  (GGPPA). Challenges of the GGPPA were made to the legislation by the Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan government in their various jurisdictions. In Ontario and Saskatchewan the courts of appeal sided with the federal government while the Alberta Court of Appeal ruled against the constitutionality of the GGPPA. While the jurisprudence within the case will be cited for generations, it is difficult at this stage to assess the long-term consequences on the future balance of the Canadian federation. The winners we...
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Hyndman Papers: Excerpts from Old Budget Speeches (Part 3)

Updated 16 December 2020 The final instalment in the Jim Dinning- Lou Hyndman memo prepared  as background for a forthcoming budget- presumably 1980-81. The first part of these excerpts compare spending of the 50th anniversary celebration of Alberta's entry into confederation as a province with spending proposed for the 1980 - 75th celebrations. in addition, these excerpts from budgets in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970 reflect perennial concerns of provincial treasurers: the constant spending pressures and the use of non-renewable resource revenues to fund the appetite for education, municipal, highways, and health services.  These budgets including the final budget of the Social Credit government are full of admonishments towards spending beyond our means and the perils of debt and Canada's ...
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Hyndman Papers: Excerpts from Old Budget Speeches (Part 1)

Updated 16 January 2020 From the Provincial Archives of Alberta and the Hyndman papers comes an undated memorandum from Jim Dinning to Lou Hyndman giving a history of previous budgets.  The tone seems archaic in this elite white male system, These excerpts underline the great optimism which has been incorporated into the psyche of most Albertans.  An unbounded future- ever expansionary- no room for pessimists and little time for opposition members.  The tone is also conversational in these first segments indicating that few in the population knew about or cared about this arcane art of provincial budgeting.  FROM:            Jim Dinning                         Executive Assistant TO:                  Hon. Lou Hyndman                         Provincial Treasurer REVIEW OF PREVIOUS BUDGETS...
Moment of Truth- Book Review and Opinion
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Moment of Truth- Book Review and Opinion

Preamble It would be unfair to dismiss the authors of Moment of Truth as grumpy, mostly white old men. This hastily edited textbook for Wexiters and Fair Dealers is a compelling read making a plausible case for a colony separating from its metropolitan or imperial power. The book is published by Sutherland House and edited by Jack Mintz, Ted Morton and Tom Flanagan. The list of grievances are long and familiar: equalization; Bill C-69; the NEP; official bilingualism; special treatment of Quebec; under-representation in Parliament; supply management; the federal carbon tax; and judicial decision-making.   Jack Mintz Source:   UCalgary.ca Although not intended, the book makes a persuasive case against the imperial-style capitalism which western Canada has been subject to since before Confed...
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Presentation to Edmonton West Rotary Club

Updated 15 October 2020 with correction to Chart 24 in Slide presentation On Thursday 1 October, I gave the following Power Point presentation entitled "Alberta’s Halting Economic Recovery-  Implications for Alberta’s Public Finances" to a local group of Rotarians. It was a rather sobering and depressing presentation.   The presentation also gave me an opportunity to plug the edited collection A Sales Tax for Alberta: Why and How to published next year by Athabasca University Press.  In my view the present government is doing what a succession of provincial governments have done for decades: accept the myth that Alberta is defined solely by its economy and the economy IS  the exploration, mining, development and production of fossil fuels.  This mindset has clouded the decision-making o...
Agencies, Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics, Uncategorized

After waiting an extra 2 months 2019-20- some major surprises missed in February forecast

Updated 10 November 2020 In an earlier report on the crucial role played by the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in government finances, we highlighted the Commission's role in overseeing the North West Redwater Upgrader investment, commenced in the latter years of the Stelmach regime. We raised some doubts, given APMC's record with the North West Redwater Partnership  (NWRP), about its competence in negotiating with TC Energy on the Keystone XL project.  APMC is also the agency tasked with negotiating the Energy East commitment and the controversial oil-by rail contracts. With the two-month delay in the publication of the Government of Alberta's Annual Report and audited consolidated financial statements, the public  finally has been apprised that Alberta's budget shortfal...
Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan
Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...
ATB Financial: how results compare
Agencies, ATB, Uncategorized

ATB Financial: how results compare

CAUTION: Writing this blog has been the most challenging undertaking since I began Albertarecessionwatch.com (now Abpolecon.ca) four years ago. Writing about a former employer and one of the "Crown jewels" of Alberta's public sector and knowing so many former colleagues still working at ATB creates a dilemma when examining critically this institution's financial condition. ATB's financial condition should be of interest to all Albertans who have a stake in the success, or failure, of this venerable institution.  This post has been frustrating to write because there is so much information available on banking institutions used to compare ATB's performance. The ocean of financial information has so many layers built up over years by both internal organizational dynamics as well as external r...
AIMCo faces first major test- Analysis and Opinion
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AIMCo faces first major test- Analysis and Opinion

Updated 3 May 2020, 4 May 2020, 18 May 2020 AIMCo’s board and management are facing troubling questions about how it has conducted its investment management strategy.  In 2016, the Institute for Public Economics published a paper I wrote that examined the success of the corporatization project. Prior to 2008, Alberta Investment Management, a division of the province's Finance department, provided investment management services to provincial public sector pension plans, to provincial agencies, and to the provincial government.  The paper was a preliminary assessment on how the new organization delivered on the promise made by previous Finance Ministers: namely, the organization would deliver returns in excess of those achieved by the previous governmental organization. ...
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Alberta Growth Mandate

In October 2015, the newly minted NDP government released their first budget. It was a difficult time for this rookie government as Alberta's economy was in free-fall and Calgary's economy was reeling. Finance Minister Joe Ceci sought something positive and the two major provincial financial agencies, reporting to the minister, were enlisted into a program to support deserving Alberta companies. According to Minister Ceci, there were three cornerstones in his maiden budget: 1) to stabilize public services, 2) a plan to balance the budget, and 3) to act on jobs and diversification. Included under jobs and diversification was a measure to mandate AIMCo "to focus a prudent but significant portion of our province’s Heritage Fund to directly invest in Alberta’s growth. Three percen...