Opinion/Research Archives - Page 6 of 7

10Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Premier Danielle Smith- Buckle-up

It was probably closer than she expected but her faith in the count was ultimately rewarded. Last night it took 6 vote counts to decide the winner. Smith finally got 53.77 per cent to Toews 46.23 per cent. The UCP is now a party quite evenly split between the party of Jason Kenney (and designated successor Travis Toews) and the party of Daniel Smith. I didn't watch the full victory speech except first few words. Smith looked delighted, basking in her new power. How she will wield it remains to be seen. Brian Jean did much worse than I thought. For a thoughtful "biography" of Smith see Jason Markusoff's post dated 6 October 2022 entitled "The reinvention(s) of Danielle Smith." Another good primer is West of Centre with Kathleen Petty. There is also a fascinating post by Ken Boessenko...

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

PST- the Political Suicide Tax

Updated 12 October 2022 Above- Interview with Bob Ascah- Mornings 630 CHED- Provincial Sales Tax- 11 October 2022. The following article is reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) which was published Tuesday, 4 October 2022. In this article I make the now familiar plea to Alberta politicians to stop the roller coaster of provincial finances by bringing in a provincial sales tax. As the article explains Albertans have become used to paying low taxes while enjoying good or in some cases superior public goods and services than other provinces' citizens. However the "Alberta Tax Advantage" has a darker side. It has produced a hard core of politicians, business groups. and citizens who hate taxes, especially a sales tax. This type of magical thinking has produced...

2Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Character and the UCP leadership race

The character of political leaders is critical to success of the society governed by the leaders. Frequently cited characteristics of political leadership include trustworthiness and honesty. Good interpersonal and organizational skills and judgement are other desirable qualities. Danielle Smith Smith's character has been mainly evaluated on her judgement in giving up the Wild Rose leadership and joining the Progressive Conservative caucus under the late premier Jim Prentice. This move drew outrage from her supporters leaving the party in a lurch just months before the election writ was dropped. This action caused a split in the conservative vote producing an unexpectedly large win by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. The Wild Rose under Brian Jean did much better than anticipated winning 21 ...

29Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Government Finances, Health, Intergovernmental, Investment, Opinion/Research

The UCP Front-runners- Policy Analysis

In this analysis I compare both the slogans and key phrases of the candidates. Slogans and phrases which are meant to attract members to vote for their preferred candidate and some of the detail of their top policy priorities. I also drill down to examine three policy areas in more detail. At the time of publication Danielle Smith is the presumed frontrunner with Travis Toews second and Brian Jean third. High level slogans compared According to Danielle Smith’s “Alberta First” campaign she will: Free Alberta from Ottawa’s control; Protect the rights and freedoms of Albertans; Unleash our economic potential and restore the Alberta Advantage, and Defeat Rachel Notley and the NDP in the next election Travis Toews promises responsible, stable leadership and promises to unite ...

De Havilland exits Ontario: Destination Wheatland County, Alberta

25Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Investment, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

De Havilland exits Ontario: Destination Wheatland County, Alberta

As previewed in Abpolecon.ca last July and this April, Alberta continues to poach unionized jobs from Ontario. Protracted negotiations between disgraced Unifor former president Gerry Diaz and De Havilland failed to protect thousands of jobs at the company's Downsview facility. In October 2021, Unifor bowing to the inevitable reduction in jobs acceded to a three-year deal which would preserve 112 member jobs in production and 673 member jobs working in office, technical and professional positions at the plant. However it did achieve a payment to employees from the phase out of the Dash-8 commitment. Negotiations centered on the company's plans to leave its current production location at the Downsview plant, ending production of the Dash 8 aircraft. In the absence of a commitment to re...

10Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

First Quarter Update- Sunny update reveals some cracks

Jason Nixon, Treasury President and Minister of Finance Source: CTV News Edmonton However, there were several dark clouds covering the sun in the first quarter numbers that merit a mention. AIMCo has had another trying quarter like other investment managers Investment income is down $2.9-billion “due entirely to negative Heritage Fund and endowment fund income as financial markets deteriorated. These market losses could be reversed although with interest rates rising bond prices will continue to fall.” Hedging debt service costs hasn’t worked out very well Even though debt is declining significantly, debt servicing costs are rising because of debt swap costs. This is unusual because with rates at historic lows one would want to protect against rising rates by entering interest rate swap...

7Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Who owns the Big Four?

Profits earned by foreign direct investors on their assets in Canada were up $2.8 billion, led by the energy sector. Statistics Canada report on balance of payments. Statistics Canada Report on balance of international payments- 30 August 2022 In a column earlier this year, Gordon Laxer argued that Alberta’s inquiry into foreign influence should also have examined the foreign influence in the Canadian oilpatch. This post examines the ownership of the Big Four oilsands producers using current data from Thomson Reuters’ Refinitiv. In an earlier post first half financial results of these companies was compared against bank profits. As the tables indicate, the top investors are mostly North American with Canadian bank subsidiary iinvestment management firms holding a small portion of the sha...

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

How the Big Four compare to the Big Five (banks)

How the Big Four with Big Five (banks) In this post I compare the financial performance between the Big Four oilsands producers and the five biggest banks by examining their first half performance. For the Big Four the data is for thee first two quarters and first half ending 30 June 2022. Since the banks have a unique fiscal year end, I compare their first two quarters for the period ending 30 April 2022. The purpose is to inform readers of the relative economic, financial and political power of the two industries. This is achieved by presenting the following metrics Total Revenue Net Income after taxes Royalties payable (not relevant to banks) Taxes payable Taxes payable as per cent of net income Total equity or capital Net income as percent of total equity Share buybacks Dividends pa...

2Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Energy, Energy, Opinion/Research

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?

Updated 14 September 2022 The question of the influence of the oil industry on Alberta's political economy and democracy has been a longstanding question for Alberta political analysts. Kevin Taft's 2017 book Oil Deep State and Ian Urquhart's 2018 Costly Fix are classic reference texts. In the following article, reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) I use public finance data, corporate reports, and production data to estimate the impact of rising oil prices on the province's finances. As oilsands production has eclipsed conventional oil production and as ownership of the oilsands have increasingly become concentrated in four large companies, the implications for Alberta's tenuous democracy are obvious. This influence will be one of the great challenges...

22May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta 4- Canada 1: Alberta Court of Appeal on the Impact Assessment Act

On 10 May Alberta's Court of Appeal provided an opinion on reference questions from the Alberta government concerning the validity of the federal Impact Assessment Act or, as Premier Kenney prefers to call it, the "no pipelines law." Background . On 9 September 2019 Alberta's cabinet authorized the Alberta Court of Appeal to consider two questions. These were: Is Part 1 of An Act to enact the Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act, to amend the Navigation Protection Act and to make consequential amendments to other Acts, S.C. 2019, c. 28, unconstitutional in whole or in part, as being beyond the legislative authority of the Parliament of Canada under the Constitution of Canada? Is the Physical Activities Regulations, SOR/2019-285, unconstitutional in whole or in pa...