It was probably closer than she expected but her faith in the count was ultimately rewarded.
Last night it took 6 vote counts to decide the winner. Smith finally got 53.77 per cent to Toews 46.23 per cent. The UCP is now a party quite evenly split between the party of Jason Kenney (and designated successor Travis Toews) and the party of Daniel Smith. I didn’t watch the full victory speech except first few words. Smith looked delighted, basking in her new power. How she will wield it remains to be seen. Brian Jean did much worse than I thought.
For a thoughtful “biography” of Smith see Jason Markusoff’s post dated 6 October 2022 entitled “The reinvention(s) of Danielle Smith.” Another good primer is West of Centre with Kathleen Petty. There is also a fascinating post by Ken Boessenkool in Substack entitled “Premier Smith is a kamikaze mission aimed at the UCP, conservatism and Alberta” sub-titled “Only Rachel Notley can win” Boessenkool compares Smith’s “political project” to a kamikaze pilot. Boessenkool managed Rebecca Schultz’s campaign. Among the critique given to Smith is that she won on the basis of issues that few Albertans really care about- except for the 50,000 members who voted for her. To his conservative friends Boessenkool warns:
Will you be assisting with the pre-flight tests and helping fuel up the plane? Will you walk away, kick the dust from your feet, and leave this work to others? Will you stick around in the hopes you can divert the plane from its current targets? Will you look for another pilot and then build a different plane?
The Cabinet
The first question, is who does she place in her cabinet.? These few MLAs who supported her will be in. Brian Jean and Tyler Shandro, Nate Glubish and Kayce Madu will enter her cabinet. Jason Copping, is seen a less polarizing health minister will be given a seat. What will Toews be offered and he is he willing to stick around? Probably not.
For Smith she is starting quickly Three senior appointments in the Premier’s office. Getting a safe seat to run in will be easy. Already the constituency of Brooks-Medicine Hat is vacant. Michaela Frey (also served under Glasgo) vacated her sit on 6 October paving the way for Premier Smith. She won her constituency in 2019 by 60.7 per cent to 17.9 per cent for the NDP.
Her choice of Justice Minister will be key. This department will be tasked with drafting the controversial Bill 1-the Sovereignty Act. Whoever is chosen the Bill will likely be introduced by the Premier and she will be directly involved with the drafting. Shandro, who already has the practical experience using the principles of the Sovereignty Act in relation to the firearm “confiscation” or buy- back is the logical choice. Brian Jean will not be the Attorney General because of his advocacy of his Autonomy Act disqualifies him. Jean could get a senior role though possibly the powerful finance minister and Treasury board President. Smith may also act as the de facto justice minister too advance her program. Would she hold that office- who knows? A non-lawyer directing lawyers?
Todd Loewen will definitely get a seat at cabinet. His eight per cent vote was the key to boosting Smith to over 50%. His second choices got her over.
To her credit, she is not going to appoint cabinet until 21 October a Friday. Thus Smith will be operating essentially with a status quo cabinet for ten days. After she is sworn in on Tuesday we will see a definite shift in government communications. Over the past several months Albertans have been subjected to a dizzying array of press releases as Kenney purports to have achieved a very high percentage of platform promises.
Friday 21 October also corresponds to the start of the UCP’s annual general meeting.to be held at the River Cree Casino resort outside Edmonton. These meeting dates are at the very same time the NDP is meeting for three days at Calgary’s Hyatt Regency that Friday. Saturday and Sunday. There may be some conflicts between agenda items such as the timing of the premier’s speech and Ms. Notley’s speech. It will be very interesting how the media covers both events.
The caucus
Smith will face a deeply divided caucus and party. Also who knows how Kenny will respond? He was absent from the Friday morning’s photo app, Toews and Jean joined the back row and Toews almost the furthest away of any MLA.
Smith must not only form a cabinet and run in a byelection, she must prepare the party for the May 2023 election. She clearly is a formidable fundraiser. Still, many of her supporters will feel top doubt. However 2023 promises to offer new room new tax room for giving.
General Election
The consensus, which I agree with, is the Calgary will be the battleground. “All” the NDP have to do to win is concentrate on winning all of the 54 ridings they took in 2015. A pretty simple Playbook
The view in some quarters is that Smith will do badly in Calgary. This remains to be seen. Her sovereigntist position is anathema to many in the corporate sector. However small producers and servicing companies are more drawn to separatist sentiments with operations mostly or exclusively in Alberta. Anecdotal evidence that some business interests relying on “foreign” capital and strong federal allegiances will hold their noses and vote NDP. If the party fractures under Smith a decisive breakthrough in Calgary will doom Smith.
The upcoming May 2023 election will be fought over health care and education this is what the NDP will focus on. Do UCP government’s flip flop on COVID-19 restrictions and their feckless curriculum review will be attacked.
Smith could pull a Ralph’s line and run against Kenney’s record. But she has only five to six months to demonstrate her competence in managing highly complex files. She will be aided by three direct reports- Rob Anderson will be her Executive Director, a Chief of staff and a Principal Secretary This reporting structure may be somewhat problematic- time will tell. Her inclination, of course, will be to attack outside forces particularly Ottawa. But she may complain her attacks against the end EP with outside for an outside Alberta forces. While she plays to her base, which may represent 30% of Alberta voters, her actions will not get the votes in urban ridings.
The NDP is holding their convention in Calgary and it promises to be a convention to energize the party faithful and showcase the nominated candidates. Excitement will be build momentum.
It’s unclear to me however how she and her advisers will address or come at the environmental and energy and fiscal files.
Battleground Calgary- Smith versus Notley
Energy is the lifeblood of Calgary economy for better or for worse. Smith accepts the industry’s achieving the goal of Net Zero by 2050, carbon capture and underground storage technologies, and hydrogen. The big four and their political advocacy group, the Pathways Alliance advocacy group are responsible for 20 to 30% of Alberta’s own source revenue. This group will be pushing Smith and her policy advisors hard. The UCP convention may see dissenting views if there is any courage left in the UCP caucus or executive strong enough to mount a challenge to their new leader.
Rachel Notley has to play somewhat to the Calgary centre-right crowd fearful of what economics levers the NDP get their hands over. perhaps. Perhaps she will develop a clear policy starting with a major inquiry into the Alberta Energy Regulator for its failure to actually enforce the previous PC, NDP, and UCP laws on orphan wells and tailings ponds. A huge shift to a solutions based approach to environment maybe the right mix. This approach means embracing challenges, not denying them and fostering engagement in the whole population to actually solve these problems.
The NDP has been active organizing in Calgary with targeted ads. The NDP in 2023, unlike in 2015, is flush with money. The NDP has also attracted very credible candidates, not University students. To date the NDP have 40 candidates nominated. You can click on the candidate picture and read background on the candidates and other events to attend. There are three upcoming NDP nominations in the Calgary area, How closely contested these one are will determiine the viability of the NDP’s plan to “retake” Calgary. Throughout the province. Finally cut backs and funding the public sector will ensure a majority, perhaps the super majority of teachers, civil servants, doctors and health care workers will be voting NDP. In addition, given Toews and the UCP’s mishandling of the pension file it suggests Calgary and smaller urban centres will provide the NDP with a significant horror of motivated workers.
By a solutions-based policy, I mean identifying political, social, economic, physical and environmental problems the province faces and tie solutions to these problems in a coherent way. Stay tuned!