Opinion/Research Archives - Page 5 of 6

10Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

First Quarter Update- Sunny update reveals some cracks

Jason Nixon, Treasury President and Minister of Finance Source: CTV News Edmonton However, there were several dark clouds covering the sun in the first quarter numbers that merit a mention. AIMCo has had another trying quarter like other investment managers Investment income is down $2.9-billion “due entirely to negative Heritage Fund and endowment fund income as financial markets deteriorated. These market losses could be reversed although with interest rates rising bond prices will continue to fall.” Hedging debt service costs hasn’t worked out very well Even though debt is declining significantly, debt servicing costs are rising because of debt swap costs. This is unusual because with rates at historic lows one would want to protect against rising rates by entering interest rate ...

7Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Who owns the Big Four?

Profits earned by foreign direct investors on their assets in Canada were up $2.8 billion, led by the energy sector. Statistics Canada report on balance of payments. Statistics Canada Report on balance of international payments- 30 August 2022 In a column earlier this year, Gordon Laxer argued that Alberta’s inquiry into foreign influence should also have examined the foreign influence in the Canadian oilpatch. This post examines the ownership of the Big Four oilsands producers using current data from Thomson Reuters’ Refinitiv. In an earlier post first half financial results of these companies was compared against bank profits. As the tables indicate, the top investors are mostly North American with Canadian bank subsidiary iinvestment management firms holding a small portion of the sh...

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

How the Big Four compare to the Big Five (banks)

How the Big Four with Big Five (banks) In this post I compare the financial performance between the Big Four oilsands producers and the five biggest banks by examining their first half performance. For the Big Four the data is for thee first two quarters and first half ending 30 June 2022. Since the banks have a unique fiscal year end, I compare their first two quarters for the period ending 30 April 2022. The purpose is to inform readers of the relative economic, financial and political power of the two industries. This is achieved by presenting the following metrics Total Revenue Net Income after taxes Royalties payable (not relevant to banks) Taxes payable Taxes payable as per cent of net income Total equity or capital Net income as percent of total equity Share buybacks Dividends p...

2Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Energy, Energy, Opinion/Research

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?

Updated 14 September 2022 The question of the influence of the oil industry on Alberta's political economy and democracy has been a longstanding question for Alberta political analysts. Kevin Taft's 2017 book Oil Deep State and Ian Urquhart's 2018 Costly Fix are classic reference texts. In the following article, reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) I use public finance data, corporate reports, and production data to estimate the impact of rising oil prices on the province's finances. As oilsands production has eclipsed conventional oil production and as ownership of the oilsands have increasingly become concentrated in four large companies, the implications for Alberta's tenuous democracy are obvious. This influence will be one of the great challenge...

22May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta 4- Canada 1: Alberta Court of Appeal on the Impact Assessment Act

On 10 May Alberta's Court of Appeal provided an opinion on reference questions from the Alberta government concerning the validity of the federal Impact Assessment Act or, as Premier Kenney prefers to call it, the "no pipelines law." Background . On 9 September 2019 Alberta's cabinet authorized the Alberta Court of Appeal to consider two questions. These were: Is Part 1 of An Act to enact the Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act, to amend the Navigation Protection Act and to make consequential amendments to other Acts, S.C. 2019, c. 28, unconstitutional in whole or in part, as being beyond the legislative authority of the Parliament of Canada under the Constitution of Canada? Is the Physical Activities Regulations, SOR/2019-285, unconstitutional in whole or in p...

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Fiscal Outlook brightens

Fiscal Outlook Brightens The first quarter fiscal and economic update was released on 31 August. Alberta's projected deficit for fiscal 2021-22 has brightened considerably due to bitumen revenue (+$5.6 billion) and stronger investment revenue (+$1.1 billion). The government's message was "Alberta's Recovery Plan is working." The main drivers for the improved performance were revenue although spending is now expected to increase by $567-million driven by health care (+$400-million), drought relief (+$400 million) and agriculture support (+$340-million) some offset by the confusing practice of using contingency and unallocated numbers. Lower debt servicing costs were assisted by low interest rates and the significant decrease in projected borrowing as a result of the improved deficit numb...

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Uni...

Keystone-XL, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Borrowers

9Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Energy, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Keystone-XL, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Borrowers

At the end of March, the Alberta cabinet passed Order in Council 104/2020 which authorized the “President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance to make advances to or purchase securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.” In addition, the Minister was given the authority to raise: “up to $2 000 000 000, by the issue and sale from time to time of notes, bonds, debentures or interest-bearing or non-interest-bearing treasury bills issued by the Crown in right of Alberta or any other securities under which the Crown in right of Alberta is the debtor (collectively referred to hereafter as “Government securities”) for the purpose of making advances to or purchasing securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in respect of the development of ...

Transitioning to the Clean Energy Economy

31Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Economic Data, Opinion/Research

Transitioning to the Clean Energy Economy

Originally posted on 31 October 2017 Several headlines stood out over the past week, which, provide further context to the governing dilemma facing the New Democratic government. The dilemma is running a state that historically could run deficits seemingly indefinitely and not have to raise taxes. The second piece of the dilemma is the economic transition away from fossil fuel consumption. (more…)

Opening Comments – Alberta’s Recent Economic Transition to FMI Seminar- Alberta’s Economic Horizon, Sutton Place Hotel, Edmonton, Thursday 9 February 2017

11Feb

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research

Opening Comments – Alberta’s Recent Economic Transition to FMI Seminar- Alberta’s Economic Horizon, Sutton Place Hotel, Edmonton, Thursday 9 February 2017

My presentation is concerned with the past five to ten years with a focus on 2012 to 2016. We first begin with the current biggest source of investment and income… This ten-year period shows the magnitude of the oil price fall in real terms since the start of the financial crisis –the dark shaded area. In real terms we are only back to the low point coming out of the financial crisis of 2007-09. [Chart from http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart] I wanted to illustrate the very real consequences of the material decline of oil prices on this and the next slide. The breadth of the recession has also touched Stampede parties hosted which have been scaled back as revenue dropped in the oil and gas sector. An important impact has been the difficult adjustments in t...