AB Pol Econ

3Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances, Politics

Auditor General and orphaned wells

On 23 March the Auditor General issued his spring reports into four areas including the Liability Management program for oil and gas wells administered by the Alberta Energy Regulator. AER has a system to mitigate the risks for the closure of oil and gas infrastructure; however, parts of the system have not operated effectively…criteria were not fully met in the following areas: risk management practices goals, performance measurement and public accountability assessing information from OWA timely closure of inactive sites collecting sufficient financial security and minimizing risk of inappropriate licence transfers suspension, abandonment, remediation and reclamation regulatory processes Three main problems with the current liability management system are: lack of pr...

28Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Solutions-based policy development and Some Modest Recommendations

There are major issues confronting Alberta- a massive understatement if there ever was! As a student, practitioner, and teacher of public policy for over 40 years, the following ideas are in a germination phase and readers are encouraged to comment and add their suggestions on the central germ of this idea. A solutions-based approach to government policy-making offers a means of identifying a small number of “problems” which require immediate attention and on which there is a consensus on the need for action. This approach starts with Problem identification. The government’s prerogative, but our current government arguably sees things much differently than a majority of Albertans- (e.g. the visceral hate of the federal government as represented by Mr. Trudeau.) In this blogpost, I set o...

<em>A Better Future </em>– Recommended Reading

26Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

A Better Future – Recommended Reading

Updated 27 March 2023 A Better Future: Fiscal Recommendations to Position Alberta for Success, authored by Todd Hirsch for NDP leader Rachel Notley was released Friday 23 March. Hirsch, ATB’s Chief Economist (2007-2022) is deeply knowledgeable about Alberta’s economy and the financial system having worked earlier in his career at the Bank of Canada (full disclosure: I hired Todd while I was at ATB Financial). In short, he is a respected economist and a consummate communicator, A Better Future is a valuable contribution to a long overview discussion of Alberta’s public finances. In the Introduction, Rachel Notley observes the following. Albertans want and deserve excellent healthcare and a top-flight education The Government of Alberta relies on natural resources revenue. Natural resourc...

<strong>OSFI’s new guidelines: A step toward making banks and insurers more conscious of their climate impacts</strong>

22Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental

OSFI’s new guidelines: A step toward making banks and insurers more conscious of their climate impacts

This article of mine was published yesterday in The Conversation. Reproduced with permission from The Conversation. After an extensive consultation process, the organization that supervises banks and large insurance companies in Canada — the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) — has released guidelines for financial institutions to address climate change. This is timely, considering banks and insurers are massive funders of the fossil fuel industry. The release of the guidelines, called the B-15, comes more than a year after a January 2022 pilot study by Canada’s central bank and OSFI on how resilient financial institutions would be under new climate policies. The study found that the creditworthiness of oilsands producers is expected to fall over the next few ...

21Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Credit Ratings, Financial Institutions

A Run on the Banking System?

Over the weekend, I turned my attention to rapidly evolving financial fissures, fissures which may portend another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The earthquake's tremors began over a week ago when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) tried to raise 2 billion dollars US in new equity. Quickly, investors asked why this was necessary and large depositors ran for the exits. SVB's broad tentacles through California's tech sector brought more pressure as tech companies and wealthy individuals sought the exits. It was the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. On Monday 13 March it was announced that the Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would lead a a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, SVB's problems stemmed from a bad decision last year to invest...

Budget Speech- Annotated and The Economic Consequences of Mr. Toews

9Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Employment, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Budget Speech- Annotated and The Economic Consequences of Mr. Toews

Budget Speech delivered on Tuesday 28 February 2023, Legislative Assembly of Alberta Mr. Speaker, I count it a tremendous honour to rise in the House today to present Budget 2023 – the fifth I have presented on behalf of Albertans. In the fall of 2019, I put forward a four-year plan to bring the province back to fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget. In some respects, these past four years have felt like a century – in part, due to the extraordinary global challenges we faced but also because of how far we’ve come. When, as a government, we took office in 2019, Alberta had an economy that was flat-lined, and we were spending $10 billion more than comparable provinces on services, without better outcomes. Our plan to strengthen Alberta’s economic foundation was two-fold: First, to bri...

2Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Sustainable Jobs- An Interim Plan plus Pathways pitch

“The budget and the economy bill are replete with folly and injustice. It is a tragedy that the moral energies and enthusiasm of many truly self-sacrificing and well wishing people should be so misdirected.” John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, “The Economy Bill, “19 September 1931 at page 145. On 17 February Natural Resources Canada’s minister Jonathan Wilkinson led the release of an “interim” Sustainable Jobs Plan (ISJP), The news release begins: Canada has what it takes to be a clean energy and technology supplier of choice in a net-zero world….to secure and create jobs, to grow our industries, and to lead the world with the resources and technologies it will need for generations to come. A chicken in every pot is proposed- “highly skilled and dedicated workers, abundant nat...

Breaking News- Premier Smith’s delivers ultimatum to Trudeau

16Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Breaking News- Premier Smith’s delivers ultimatum to Trudeau

Letter from Premier Smith to Prime Minister Trudeau February 16, 2023 Media inquiries Premier Danielle Smith invites Ottawa to collaborate with Alberta on carbon capture, utilization and storage investment and halt introduction of Just Transition legislation and oil and gas emissions cap. Dear Prime Minister: I am writing in follow up to our meeting of February 7th, during which we discussed the need for the Government of Canada to halt introduction of the proposed Just Transition legislation and implementation of unachievable targets and measures under the federal Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) such as the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) and oil and gas sector emissions cap. As a much more productive alternative, I invited your government to agree to commencing a collaborative ef...

Budgetary advice from UofC and the Fraser Institute – cross-examined

15Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budgetary advice from UofC and the Fraser Institute – cross-examined

“Don’t Spend Away the Windfall: Better Options for Alberta’s Unexpected Revenues,” written by Jack M. Mintz, Trevor Tombe, Joel Emes, and Tegan Hill is timely asit arrives a few weeks before the provincial budget (28 February). This contribution, combining the right leaning Fraser Institute and two well-known University of Calgary economists offers three approaches for considering the windfall by Alberta’s finance minister Travis Toews. The paper’s moralistic title suggests politicians are not to be trusted with windfalls At this moment, we are also awaiting the report of Todd Hirsch who was engaged by the Alberta NDP to study “how an NDP government can stabilize the province’s finances and build a more resilient economy.” His mandate has been interpreted as what to do with the windfall b...

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

11Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

After a decade of seeing its credit rating fall steadily from the coveted triple AAA rating to AA3, surging oil revenues have again lifted Alberta’s credit rating. Nature of credit ratings Credit ratings do matter to all governments which borrow on international and domestic capital markets. There is so much debt in the world that for large bond buying desks their analysts cannot focus on every credit in detail. These institutional investors count on rating agencies to undertake thorough, in some cases almost forensic work, to assure large institutional investors- think Vanguard, Swiss RE, J.P Morgan and the CPPIB- that the risks they are managing, including default risk, are fully understood and the debt/credit portfolios have risk limits understood by the bond buyers.. Credit ratings a...