AB Pol Econ

An Alberta Pension Plan (APP): Your Plan, Their Choice

24Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Agencies, Demographics, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

An Alberta Pension Plan (APP): Your Plan, Their Choice

Updated 25 September 2023 Updated 30 September 2023 “This report shows a made-in-Alberta pension plan could put more money in the pockets of hard-working families and business owners and improve retirement security for seniors. We want to hear from you because it’s your pension, your choice. I’m so excited to hear what Albertans think about a provincial pension plan that could benefit Albertans now as well as our future generations.” Danielle Smith, Premier In this post I critically examine the upcoming battle between the UCP state, business organizations, and Alberta sovereigntists versus a labour -NDP coalition led opposition of concerned seniors and worried CPP contributors. First, I begin referencing the debate over the past two days and then investigate the central polit...

18Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Investment, Politics

2023-24 First Quarter Fiscal Update

The First Quarter Fiscal Update released on 31 August 2023 by Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Nate Horner showed marginal change in the budgetary surplus estimated last February. This analysis looks through these numbers to underlying trends. With oil prices now over $90, there is some cause for optimism. So far this year WTI oil prices have averaged about $76.50 U.S./barrel which is about $2.50 U.S. lower than the budget estimate. Much will depend on whether western economies achieve a “soft landing” avoiding a deep recession with falling oil demand. On 14 September DBRS Morningstar raised Alberta’s credit rating a notch to AA (see discussion below). Is spending out of control? No On page 4 in the Fiscal Plan Summary table, total expenditure was $64.5 billion in 2022-2...

The Premier’s Renewables Moratorium Fails Her Constituents in Medicine Hat

3Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Politics

The Premier’s Renewables Moratorium Fails Her Constituents in Medicine Hat

Updated with related information 4 September 2023. This post is contributed by Dr. Ian Urquhart who is Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He is the author of Costly Fix: Power, Politics, and Nature in the Tar Sands published by University of Toronto Press in 2019. Representing a local constituency – this duty distinguishes the responsibilities of a Canadian premier from their closest American counterparts, state governors. Premier Smith showed little concern for those responsibilities when she slapped an industry-wide seven month moratorium on approving new renewable energy projects. The billions of investment dollars put at risk by the moratorium includes hundreds of millions of dollars in solar for her constituency of Brooks-Medicine Hat. DP Ener...

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 5- Ruben Nelson

21Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Politics, Society

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 5- Ruben Nelson

In the fifth of the Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments Alberta 2023 series, I talked with Alberta futurist Ruben Nelson the day after the 29 May provincial election results. In this wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Nelson speaks eloquently about the problems faced by our modern industrial-technological society and the notion of societies being “future takers.” And being a future taker means that you need to seriously understand the situation you're in and with a good deal of humility come to terms with the forces that are shaping your future whether you like it or not. And it seems to me that Alberta, in those term, Alberta is not a humble place (emphasis added). Role of Culture According to Nelson, Alberta is culturally very different than other provinces because Europeans did not arrive in any ...

7Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Education, Environment, Health

Mandate letters- Education, Environment and Health

Accountability Mandate letters are incredibly valuable instruments giving interested members of the public and policy analysts a more informed view of what cabinet ministers and their senior officials are expected to do. The degree of transparency and accountability that goes with it give the Premier (and the public) a ready way to assess performance of ministers and their departments. Whether the policy initiatives cited in these letters correspond to what the public thought they were going to get is, of course, another matter. For instance, the Alberta Revenue Agency and the resurrection of the Alberta Pension Plan and Health Spending Accounts were non-issues during the campaign for the UCP at least. In this post, I explore the mandates for the ministries of Education, Environment ...

2Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Loan Losses, Politics

The Big Two mandates….

Over the past three weeks, Premier Smith has been busy issuing “mandate letters” to her cabinet colleagues. These mandate letters are ministers’ marching orders and are an excellent guide of future legislative and regulatory initiatives by the newly minted Smith government. Given the importance of five ministries which represent the most important conduits of public spending (Health and Education) and strategic public policy and intergovernmental relations (Energy and Minerals, Environment and Protected Areas, and Treasury Board and Finance), this post, and a succeeding post, looks at the central elements of Smith’s agenda. This post looks examines what I call the Big Two Mandates- Energy and Treasury Board and Finance. Energy and Minerals Smith’s letter to Jean, begins, excluding th...

Alberta’s continuing devotion to resource revenue and the legacy of ignored policy advice

25Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s continuing devotion to resource revenue and the legacy of ignored policy advice

Updated on 2 August 2023 Despite a record surplus reported for last year, the Alberta government only achieves surpluses by counting the royalties from the sale of non-renewable resources (non-renewable resource revenue- NRRR) like ordinary revenue. But does this practice- commenced in the 1940s- faithfully represent the fiscal position of the government? If the Government of Alberta adopted the private sector's approach to the sale of physical assets, Alberta's fiscal history would be decidedly different. Private sector accounting would establish the oil, gas, and bitumen resources as an asset on the provincial balance sheet. The accounting entry would represent the value of all the resources in the ground that would be produced in the current fiscal year and into the future. The value o...

E. Preston Manning- Management Consultant circa 1983

19Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

E. Preston Manning- Management Consultant circa 1983

In this extraordinary document, found in Lou Hyndman's papers deposited with the Provincial Archives in 1986, is a 12-page submission by Manning Consultants Limited to pitch a "Citizens' Committee on Productivity and Economy in Government." It was proposed that Manning Consultants co-ordinate the organization of "information request forms," workshop and final report. As the document reveals, the proposal is highly moralistic in tone. The document is a response to unfortunate stories in the media about government "extravagance and waste" and lifestyle choices of elected government officials and senior civil servants. The document's fiscal conservatism is vintage Preston Manning whose Reform party publicized government waste and inefficiency. This remarkable document sheds light on Man...

Lou Hyndman’s reply to Preston Manning’s proposal

19Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Health, Politics

Lou Hyndman’s reply to Preston Manning’s proposal

In an earlier post, in the fall of 1983, Preston Manning, then President of Manning Consultants a firm his father established wished push fiscal policy changes. The timing may be significant because by that time Peter Lougheed had been in office for 12 years and there was speculation growing about when her would exit. Lou Hyndman's somewhat testy reply to Preston Manning's circulation of his groups report to all M.L.A.'s and to Progressive Conservative delegates at the annual convention was especially cool. The displeasure is evident in Manning's courageous and naive proposal to reduce the size of the Alberta Legislative Assembly consistent with principles that fiscal discipline should begin at the top. His reference to the earlier Social Credit government allowing the civil service to ...

Danielle Smith’s cabinet policy committees

9Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Danielle Smith’s cabinet policy committees

Updated 10July 2023 On Thursday 6 July, Premier Danielle Smith announced the formation of her cabinet policy committees. These five committees, in addition to the statutory Treasury Board committee chaired by the Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Nate Horner, reflect the government’s key policy priorities for the next four years. The names of the committees are Alberta First Building Communities Economic Diversification Public Safety and Wellness and Legislative Review Committee. All committees are chaired by non-cabinet members and have a balanced number of backbench MLAs and cabinet ministers. In this brief I examine the significance and role of the committees as well as taking a more in depth look at the published backgrounds of the backbench chairs. “I want to thank the...