AB Pol Econ

1981- Economic Downturn and Accelerated Projects

16Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

1981- Economic Downturn and Accelerated Projects

The fall and winter of 1980-81 was a very unsettling time for provincial politicians. The Alberta public, politicians, and senior public servants were furious at the indifference of federal politicians' plans to redirect oil revenues from producers and the provincial government. Unemployment insurance claims rose from about 10,000 in September 1980 to over 17,000 in January 1981. Alberta's unemployment rate increased from 3.4 per cent in September to 4.5 per cent in January, further causing concern in a province which had recorded rapid economic growth since the early 1970s. In this climate of uncertainty, Treasurer Lou Hyndman had requested his cabinet colleagues to provide suggestions on how to get idle human and physical capital to work again. In these two memoranda from the Hyndman pap...

Budget 1981-82: Communications objectives

9Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending

Budget 1981-82: Communications objectives

The April 1981 was a pivotal budget for the Province of Alberta. Every budget has key communications objectives, as Lou Hyndman's one-page memorandum to his Treasury Board and cabinet colleagues, reveals. This budget was Alberta's first after the National Energy Program was announced. As last week's Abopecon.ca reported, the previous month, the Treasury department was wary about providing any economic forecasts and the prevailing mood in the provincial government and the whole economy was grim. The situation back in 1981 is analogous to the circumstances facing the current government. For the Conservative government, re-elected for the third time in 1979 with 74 of 79 seats, it was clear that the government would use its considerable fiscal resources to maintain public services an...

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

31Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Government Finances

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

After the National Energy Program was announced, Alberta was about to enter a period of recession that would shape fiscal policy for over the next four decades. As this excerpt from a January 1981 memorandum from Deputy Provincial Treasurer A.F. (Chip) Collins reveals, the province's budget-makers faced a climate of great uncertainty. Over the coming months, Abpolecon.ca will be reporting the internal discussions, at the highest levels of the Alberta government, respecting economic activity and proposed budgetary measures. This tumultuous period offers interesting parallels to what Treasury Board and Finance budget-makers are dealing with. As this excerpt from Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman's files illustrates, 1981 was turning into annus horribilis. As the Treasury department prepar...

Hyndman Papers- -NEP “Casualty Reports” January 1981

27Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Employment, Energy

Hyndman Papers- -NEP “Casualty Reports” January 1981

The following paper comes out of Treasurer Lou Hyndman's files from January 1981 - about 80 days after the National Energy Program was announced. The document originates from the Canadian Association of Oil Drilling Contractors (C.A.O.D.C.). The document is a list of rigs idled and jobs lost and projected jobs lost in the oil patch. The language is fairly neutral but the term "casualty list" conveys a great deal of worry within the oil servicing industry. Also the time since the NEP is locked in people's memory as a term like Anno Domine (A.D.). This usage highlights a sense of an oilpatch entering into a totally different world. Bulletin C.A.O.D.C. Casualty Report NO.2 Issued 1981 January 05 (NEP +69) Since the publication of the National Energy Program on 1980 October 28 (NEP Day) t...

20Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research

AIMCo’s Board reports

Updated 21 July 2020 On 9 July AIMCo's board of directors issued a summary of results of its own review of the "VOLTS investment strategy." VOLTS stands for Volatility Trading Strategy. The seven page summary report, dated 30 June, was posted on AMICo's website. Board's mandate Three priorities, set by the Board during its 14 May announcement, were to: limit the damage from the volatility trading strategy; confirm that no other investment strategies could generate substantial losses in very unusual circumstances; and undertake a comprehensive review of the volatility trading strategy to identify lessons learned and corresponding enhancements to AIMCo’s investment and risk management processes....(to) be shared with AIMCo’s clients and shareholder with a target completion of mid-June."...

Heritage Fund loses lustre- Time to rethink its existence-Analysis and Opinion

14Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Heritage Fund loses lustre- Time to rethink its existence-Analysis and Opinion

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF), established by Peter Lougheed in 1976, has been seen as a Crown jewel of Alberta’s fiscal management. Recently, the AHSTF long viewed by rating agencies as a vehicle to stabilize finances, has begun to lose its lustre. Is the Heritage Fund merely a relic of Alberta’s golden day in the sun when money poured into provincial coffers? Should the AHSTF be eliminated given the rise of Alberta’s debt. How does the reporting on the AHSTF’s management obscure what should be a laser focus on debt management? (more…)

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...

1Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Credit Ratings, Government Finances

The next downgrade

On 30 June FitchRatings downgraded the provincial rating from AA to AA- and revised its ratings outlook on long-term debt to negative from stable. Although there was nothing surprising about the downgrade, in view of the Province's deteriorating fiscal position, several statements are noteworthy. First, the report came one day after the Alberta Economic Recovery Plan was announced, Fitch remarked there was a lack of updated financial information. Fitch's initial timing of the report may have been dictated by the expectation that audited financial statements for the last fiscal year would be available. This turned out not to be the case as the Government amended the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act to give the Government until the end of August to complete the financial statements....

29Jun

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report

Preston ManningSource: Government of Alberta Whether you like Premier Jason Kenney or not, one must agree he has been a busy Premier. A Premier who sets out a playbook and is following this platform. Whether you like his policy platform or not, he is a man on a mission to transform Alberta seemingly from the ground up. Reading daily news releases from the Government of Alberta, this government likes to claim “Promise Kept!” The Fair Deal page is a trove of information about the Government’s responses to the report (finalized before the Pandemic took hold) including recommendations underway, recommendations agreed to in principle, recommendations with support for further analysis, and recommendations that require modification. If anything, Premier Kenney is well organized and marchin...

26Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Employment, Intergovernmental

Heightened Political Anxiety Dec. 1980

During the fall of 1980, I had resumed my second year of doctoral studies in political science at the University of Alberta. It was my second autumn in Alberta. As earlier excerpts indicated, there was a considerable amount of anxiety in the political realm. Joe Clark's government had been defeated at the polls in February 1980. Pierre Elliott Trudeau returned with a renewed majority. Of course, the setting was post-National Energy Program, and Lougheed's cabinet had gone across the province soliciting feedback on their performance. This intelligence was put to good use as the Alberta government was feeling financially flush with oil royalties and general tax revenue. But Canadian and Alberta consumers were squeezed financially with sky-high short-term interest rates over 20 per ce...