AB Pol Econ

Heritage Fund loses lustre- Time to rethink its existence-Analysis and Opinion

14Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Heritage Fund loses lustre- Time to rethink its existence-Analysis and Opinion

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF), established by Peter Lougheed in 1976, has been seen as a Crown jewel of Alberta’s fiscal management. Recently, the AHSTF long viewed by rating agencies as a vehicle to stabilize finances, has begun to lose its lustre. Is the Heritage Fund merely a relic of Alberta’s golden day in the sun when money poured into provincial coffers? Should the AHSTF be eliminated given the rise of Alberta’s debt. How does the reporting on the AHSTF’s management obscure what should be a laser focus on debt management? (more…)

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...

1Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Credit Ratings, Government Finances

The next downgrade

On 30 June FitchRatings downgraded the provincial rating from AA to AA- and revised its ratings outlook on long-term debt to negative from stable. Although there was nothing surprising about the downgrade, in view of the Province's deteriorating fiscal position, several statements are noteworthy. First, the report came one day after the Alberta Economic Recovery Plan was announced, Fitch remarked there was a lack of updated financial information. Fitch's initial timing of the report may have been dictated by the expectation that audited financial statements for the last fiscal year would be available. This turned out not to be the case as the Government amended the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act to give the Government until the end of August to complete the financial statements....

29Jun

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report

Preston ManningSource: Government of Alberta Whether you like Premier Jason Kenney or not, one must agree he has been a busy Premier. A Premier who sets out a playbook and is following this platform. Whether you like his policy platform or not, he is a man on a mission to transform Alberta seemingly from the ground up. Reading daily news releases from the Government of Alberta, this government likes to claim “Promise Kept!” The Fair Deal page is a trove of information about the Government’s responses to the report (finalized before the Pandemic took hold) including recommendations underway, recommendations agreed to in principle, recommendations with support for further analysis, and recommendations that require modification. If anything, Premier Kenney is well organized and marchin...

26Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Employment, Intergovernmental

Heightened Political Anxiety Dec. 1980

During the fall of 1980, I had resumed my second year of doctoral studies in political science at the University of Alberta. It was my second autumn in Alberta. As earlier excerpts indicated, there was a considerable amount of anxiety in the political realm. Joe Clark's government had been defeated at the polls in February 1980. Pierre Elliott Trudeau returned with a renewed majority. Of course, the setting was post-National Energy Program, and Lougheed's cabinet had gone across the province soliciting feedback on their performance. This intelligence was put to good use as the Alberta government was feeling financially flush with oil royalties and general tax revenue. But Canadian and Alberta consumers were squeezed financially with sky-high short-term interest rates over 20 per ce...

Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980

22Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Energy, Intergovernmental

Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980

Updated 25 June 2020 One of the most curious recommendations in the Fair Deal Report is section III which encourages “telling Alberta’s story.” This call to action urges the sharing of "common messages". The authors suggest that “transparent” civic society groups like municipalities, unions, companies, advocacy groups, non-profits and "indeed, every citizen” have a "critical and essential voice" to tell Alberta’s story. However, this section includes the invocation to tell a story about Alberta’s “leading practices in the energy, agriculture, and forestry sectors and the full cost that Alberta’s failure would have on benefits currently shared by the country as a whole.” Critics would charge that the panel was pandering to enduring grievances accentuated by the volatile roller- coaster ...

15Jun

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Agencies, ATB, Uncategorized

ATB Financial: how results compare

CAUTION: Writing this blog has been the most challenging undertaking since I began Albertarecessionwatch.com (now Abpolecon.ca) four years ago. Writing about a former employer and one of the "Crown jewels" of Alberta's public sector and knowing so many former colleagues still working at ATB creates a dilemma when examining critically this institution's financial condition. ATB's financial condition should be of interest to all Albertans who have a stake in the success, or failure, of this venerable institution. This post has been frustrating to write because there is so much information available on banking institutions used to compare ATB's performance. The ocean of financial information has so many layers built up over years by both internal organizational dynamics as well as external r...

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

13Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...

1Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB

ATB facing headwinds (Part 1)

Directors and Politics ATB Financial will have three new directors as it charts a challenging course forward. On 13 May, Jim Davidson, Andrew S. Fraser, and J. Robert Logan were quietly appointed to ATB's board effective 16 June 2020 for three- year terms. At the same time Wendy Henkelman (a director since 2014) and Mary Ellen Neilson (director since 2017) were re-appointed. No press release has been issued to date by either ATB or the Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance, although at ATB's virtual public annual meeting, the new directors were expected to be introduced. Given the surprising absence of public disclosure, the following disclosure is a well educated guess of who these new board members are. Jim DavidsonSource: https://oilandgascouncil.com/event-speakers/...

25May

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman Papers

Alberta's Contribution to Confederation circa 1980 In August 1980, Alberta intergovernmental relations were heating up as the earlier Mellon memo attested to. The National Energy Program was about two months away from release, a release that would fuel the flames of western separatism. Concerns were festering in Alberta about the cost-benefits of remaining in Confederation. In the Briefing Note below, authored by Treasury officials in the Fiscal Policy and Economic Analysis Division documented the inflows and outflows to and from the federal Treasury over a 16-year period. The Table below summarizes two tables from the paper- the cumulative totals for provinces and a combined B.C., Yukon, and North West Territories and the discounted cumulative totals. The information was derived...