AB Pol Econ

28Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

The Perils of Economic Forecasting in a Commodity-based Economy

In the wake of the "energy settlement" of August 1981 when Trudeau and Lougheed toasted champagne, economists at Alberta Treasury's Budget Planning and Economics group were refreshing their economic forecasts. In the Economic Outlook reproduced below, attention focused on the anticipated mega-projects expected to drive Alberta's economy in the medium term. The Outlook reinforces the notion of Alberta as a single-commodity based economy relying on the construction and engineering sectors to drive economic growth and employment. As the Chart shows, things did not turn out quite what the analysts have thought they would based on econometric models based upon assumptions about the trajectory of various mega-projects. Very shortly after the projection, an inflection point was reached in 1982 ...

8Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Budget, Economic Data

Alberta Treasury Branches: Strategic Listening Posts

From the Provincial Archives of Alberta's collection of papers from the late Lou Hyndman comes an interesting case of the economic intelligence capacity of the Province's financial institution. As the Alberta cabinet's anxiety rose following the October 1980 federal budget and National Energy Program, evidence was being gathered on how damaging the federal policies were to the provincial economy. At the end of August 1981 the Office of the Superintendent of Alberta Treasury Branches (at the time the Superintendent of ATB was Fred Sparrow) prepared to update what were called "economic Assessment Reports" aggregated from Treasury Branch managers across the province. ATB logo pin Source: Pinterest The highly summarized five-page report divided the province into three "divisions"- Northern,...

28Feb

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances

Alberta Budget 2021-Analysis

Highlights Economic assumptions on balance appear realistic with some upside Spending kept flat mainly through cuts to ministries except Health, K-12 Education, and Social Services Capital spending to remain elevated although next two years see a significant reduction. No new taxes or tax increases- nothing on revenue structure review Debt levels will rise to close to government’s fiscal anchor Economic Assumptions The Government seems to be following the playbook from Ralph Klein's early years in leading the province out of what had been chronic deficits. Conservative resource revenue forecasts based on past history rather than hoped-for future prices helped return the provincial government to balance quickly. These conservative revenue forecasts restrained the public and v...

26Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2021- the fine art form of scape-goating: Opinion

Finance Minister Toews has learned from his grandmaster, Premier Jason Kenney, the dark art of scape-goating. Budget 2021 offers more of the same- restraint in public sector spending which is, in fairness, what they have promised. Except for the disastrous decline in resource revenue and increased health spending due to COVID, the government has retreated from its promise to balance the budget in its first term. The scape-goats predictably are the federal government and the compensation levels for unionized public sector workers. The Alberta government continued to tilt at windmills like equalization payments and the federal government's environmental assessment process. Over nearly 2 years of UCP rule, total debt has risen from $92.8 billion to $133.6 billion and is projected to reach ...

25Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Sales Tax debate will be difficult for political parties to ignore

Updated 25 February 2021 On 24 February, the day before the UCP's third budget, the Globe and Mail reiterated its editorial position about a sales tax for Alberta. This perspective will be written off by political leaders as paternalistic, unwanted central Canadian twaddle. But the mood is definitely changing as a 2020 CBC-Calgary public opinion poll indicates. The non-debate by our political leaders has also been picked up by Alberta's business leaders. In a recent report Towards a Fiscally Sustainable Alberta- A Review of Provincial Government Finances, the Business Council of Alberta (BCA) of Alberta proclaims on its website: "Alberta, we have a problem." This message is not dissimilar to the language used by the Financial Review Commission's Report to Albertans issued in March 1993- a...

21Feb

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Government Finances, Politics

Post-Mortem Budget 2021

Updated 25 March 2021 Subscribers and readers wishing to watch the unedited recording of the event see immediately below: Topic: Alberta Budget Panel Date:Mar 11,2021 11:32 AM Mountain Time (US and Canada)Recording-1(1.15 GB)https://ualberta-ca.zoom.us/rec/play/Fho1Zu-z2P0siweIkLKS69c5I0qJayPVtifu-qxUYHMxfTjxc4FhEmkNKH45qzB6skdm4bOLgqfj5a69.TAUF0uNq74aG3bwRPasscode: S^hpKdE6 Event registration closed. Video recording will be available after the event. Economics Society of Northern Alberta Institute of Public Administration of Canada (Edmonton) The Parkland Institute University of Alberta Present Post-Mortem on Alberta Budget 2021 Noon: Thursday 11 March 2021 On 25 February, Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Travis Toews presents his third budget- the first item on ...

13Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Budget Process: Pros & Cons of Supplementary Estimates

This memorandum from the late summer of 1981 captures the momentum of spending that had built up under the Lougheed government in 1981. As previous documents have shown, a great deal of money was being spent to cushion the blows from the National Energy Program and the attendant difficulties associated with lower oil price projections and high interest rates. As departments rushed to take advantage of a more generous attitude within the provincial cabinet to spend, the volume of additional requests suggested mid-year of supplementary estimates to presented at a fall sitting of the Legislative Assembly. Collins' memorandum attempts to get ahead of the list of Special Warrants, appropriations made by the provincial cabinet rather than the Legislative Assembly. These Special Warrants would ...

7Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Hyndman Papers- 1982-83 Budget Deliberations

1982 was a pivotal year for Alberta as the twin effects of a world recession and falling oil investment forced Alberta policy-makers to pull out all the stops. Western separatism was a worry for Peter Lougheed when Gordon Kessler of the Western Canada Concept party won a February 1982 by-election in the rural constituency of Olds-Didsbury. This was also a time for budgetary largesse. In a 2011 article in Policy Options, economists Herb Emery and Ron Kneebone: Provincial support for the industry included a $5.4-billion program, introduced in 1982, consisting of royalty reductions and grants designed to increase the flow of revenue to the industry. In the same year the federal government would supplement this effort with its own $2-billion assistance plan. Measured in 2008 dollars, these t...

1Feb

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Budget, Employment, Government Finances

Are the UCP good fiscal managers?

Updated 9 February 2021 On Monday, 18 January Service Alberta quietly issued a request for expressions of interest (REOI) to sell the data contained in systems from the Province's Land Titles Office (LTO), Personal Property Registry (PPR) information, and Corporate Registry data (COR). This Request was reported by the CBC on 21 January and Postmedia on 23 January. The Service Alberta ministry is run by Nate Glubish, the UCP member from Strathcona-Sherwood Park. (Picture source:Wikipedia) Background There has been little comment on this move by the Alberta government in the ten days or so since the REOI. The intent of the process is to determine the interest by private sector actors in buying an "exclusive 35-year concession" to sell information to registries from the databases of the P...

23Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

GOA’s investment in Keystone XL looks shaky

Updated 25 January 2021 to reflect Kenney-Trudeau letter It was perhaps a foregone conclusion that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would sign an executive order soon after his inauguration rescinding the permit allowing TC Energy to build the Keystone XL pipeline. But hope springs eternal in some locales in Alberta. And yet, the heavily signalled order sat on the newly -minted President's desk. Executive Order on "Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis," a lengthy discourse of executive actions, revoked the March 2019 Permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline. According to the Order The Keystone XL pipeline disserves the U.S. national interest. The United States and the world face a climate crisis. That crisis must be met with action on a scale an...