AB Pol Econ

19Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Investment

De Havilland -Update

Updated 28 April 2022/2 May 2022 In July 2021 Abpolecon.ca ran a story A coup for Invest Alberta? that suggested or predicted that the De Havilland Corporation would bring jobs to the Calgary area. On 31 March 2022, the Globe and Mail published a Canadian Press story providing some information about an announcement that 500 jobs would be created by the aircraft manufacturer in Calgary. According to the story, De Havilland has launched the De Havilland DHC-515 Firefighter program to build on its Canadair CL-215 and CL-415 aircraft. De Havilland Canada acquired the Canadair CL program in 2016. The company already has signed letters of intent purchase the first 22 aircraft, and expects to make its first deliveries by 2025. Final assembly of the aircraft will take place in Calgary, where s...

11Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Education, Government Finances

Post-mortem on the Provincial Budget

Updated 14 March 2022 On Thursday, Abpolecon.ca and three sponsoring organizations hosted an expert panel of the 28 February provincial budget. The expert panel consisted of Ken Kobly, CEO of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, Professor Lindsay Tedds of the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, Jonathan Teghtmeyer, Executive Staff Officer, Government, Alberta Teachers' Association, and Professor Jared Wesley of the Department of Political Science at the University of Alberta. The presentations led to a spirited discussion on such subjects as: the province's new swagger; the "care economy, missing in action;" misalignment between rural municipalities and provincial policy initiatives; and the symbolism of Larry the pipefitter who played a cameo role in the 2022 bud...

8Mar

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Energy, Government Finances

Energy company shareholders getting paid back after years of famine

In this post, I examine the dividend streams of the four major oilsands producers as well as other major producers of oil and natural gas. The PDF figures which follow indicate the dividends paid or declared by 18 of Canada's largest oil and gas producers over the last 10 or so years. Overall there was a notable drop in dividends paid beginning in 2016, about one year after the significant plunge in oil prices. Beginning in late 2020, with a recovery in oil prices, there has been a significant increase in dividends going to shareholders. Up until 2021 oil and gas shareholders suffered capital losses on the prices of their shares. Those investors that sold their shares at significant losses are regretting the rebound in oil and gas company shares. Logos of the Big Four ...

1Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Budget 2022- Analysis and Opinion

The Alberta government’s recent budget reveals- once again- the provincial treasury’s over-dependence on non renewable resource revenue. This budget continues a six-decade tradition of resource revenue making up for a deficient, unstable revenue base to produce budget balance. However, as the chart below illustrates Alberta has never had a budgetary surplus, when excluding resource revenues since 1965-66. The surplus targets for fiscal years 2022-25 also produce the same results. This year, Albertans are expected to only contribute 78 cents on the dollar to Alberta’s expected revenues. If oil persists at an average of $90 U.S. per barrel over the whole fiscal year beginning April 1, then an extra $10-billion will be received meaning taxpayers will only foot 59 per cent of the bills. C...

27Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2022: the 2023 election begins

Analysis and Opinion On Thursday afternoon, 24 February Travis Toews tabled his fourth budget. From the standpoint of the United Conservative Party, the budget was an unadulterated triumph. Sure, higher oil prices had something to do with the anticipated surplus in 2022-23 ("a traffic cone could balance Alberta's budget," NDP opposition leader Rachel Notley proclaimed before the speech). admitted Toews to interviewers, but other revenue sources were healthier. By sticking to the fiscal plan as outlined in September 2019 by the MacKinnon panel, the government had done the hard lifting of keeping expenses from growing and attracting investment and Albertans were now reaping the fiscal and economic rewards. In this post, I examine the budget address of Toews, its key messages and its impli...

21Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Education

Student Protest

On Thursday 17 February, I joined about 500-700 students, faculty, staff and labour supporters in a march from the University of Alberta campus to the steps of the Alberta Legislature. At the bottom of the post are two handouts received at the demonstration At the main quad, marchers gathered. The speakers included representatives from the Students' Union, the Association of Academic Staff University of Alberta (AASUA). and the Non-Academic Staff Association (NASA). Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) flags also blew in the air. The crowd began to march in lines of four or five across though campus towards the High Level Bridge. I chatted with two women from a Philippines association and a contract instructor. Contract instructors live from term to term contracts with no job secu...

20Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Investment, Uncategorized

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1982-83

In the following remarkable document from former Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman, he succinctly summarizes the quintessential fiscal policy questions his predecessors and successors have grappled with. These questions relate to: the Alberta public's "rising expectations;" use of Heritage Fund savings and investment income for general operating purposes; the scope for tax increases; how to cope with resource revenue uncertainty; and the sustainability of government expenditures. All these questions are pertinent today. Undated from Lou Hyndman- presumably to caucus or to Treasury Board/Cabinet Key questions The following are some of the key questions to consider in setting the 1982-83 target expenditure level. How should rising public expectations be reconciled with limited financial r...

20Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Budget 2022- Alberta’s Fiscal Dilemma

Updated 24 February Opinion Alberta’s budget context is favorable right now with oil prices at just over $90 U.S. a barrel. A budget surplus, based on resource revenue, is widely expected for fiscal 2022-23. Alberta employment is back to the pre-pandemic levels. (I may have given the GOA the benefit of the doubt here. The December 2021 Statistics Canada Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies revealed Alberta payroll employment "had not yet reached pre-COVID levels in December 2021 (-34,400; -1.7%)," This survey can be a better gauge than the Labour Force Survey which is notoriously volatile. Kenney’s balanced budget approach to hold spending constant or reduce spending has been "rewarded" with the inevitable rebound of Alberta's oil and gas-dependent economy. I...

22Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Banks, Energy, Environment, Financial Institutions

Central bank, OSFI take reins on climate change- Alberta’s oil and gas economy will be changed by federal regulators

Updated 7 February 2022 On Friday 14 January the Bank of Canada and Canada's Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) released a report on a pilot study respecting the potential impact of climate change on Canada's major financial institutions. Canada's central bank and OSFI are jointly responsible for the stability of Canada's financial system. As international organizations mobilize resources to understand the linkages between national and global climate change policy shifts, there is a growing unease among regulators on how prepared banks and insurers are in understanding and managing credit risk and market risk of clients who are especially exposed to climate change policies. Bank of Canada, Ottawa Source: Bank of Canada See my article in The Conversation...

21Jan

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Energy, Energy, Politics

Gordon Laxer on Big Foreign Oil

Balancing perspectives: Why was foreign influence exercised in Alberta’s Oilpatch not investigated by the Allan Inquiry? Gordon Laxer is one of Canada’s foremost political economists. He was the founding director of The Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta and is the author of many books, articles, and opinion pieces on Canada’s oil and gas sector. Abpolecon.ca is pleased to share with our readership Dr. Laxer’s recent work on foreign influence and control in Canada’s oil and gas sector. In a report, co-published by the Council of Canadians and CPPA Saskatchewan and B.C., entitled “Posing as Canadian- How Big Foreign Oil captures Canadian energy and climate policy,” he counters the widely derided Allan Inquiry report into foreign funding. Laxer finds it hypocritical of UCP polic...