Government Finances Archives - Page 8 of 12

27Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Banks, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Hyndman Papers- ATB and the chartered banks

In the following correspondence between the Provincial Treasurer and TD-Bank's vice-president of the Alberta South Division, a longstanding complaint by the chartered banks about unfair competition from Alberta Treasury Branches (ATB) is revealed. Backdrop In the late 1970s, the North American economy faced surging inflation rates in the low teens and Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Paul Volcker was determined to drive the economy into recession by imposing high interest rates. The Bank of Canada, led by Gerald Bouey followed suit and Canada's bank rate approached 20 per cent. Inevitably, heavily indebted famers, home buyers, and businesses appealed to various orders of government to shield them from the effects of high interest rates. As the correspondence reveals, Alberta's Treasurer ha...

13Jun

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Agencies, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Exploring the Regulatory Maze (3): The Auditor General Reports…

The bizarre story of the Mine Financial Security program (MFSP) continues to unfold. In May, the Minister of the Environment and Parks, Jason Nixon announced a review of the program noting depressed profits in 2020 motivated the government to reset the rules in calculating security requirements. This meant that increased security requirements under the existing requirement would be reduced. Then on 10 June, Auditor General Doug Wylie released a report which focused on processes to provide information about government's environmental liabilities. The report unfortunately raises serious questions about the competencies of provincial officials at all levels as well as the failure of senior officials and ministers to accept responsibility for environmental cleanups. Wylie’s report addres...

30May

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Energy, Environment, Government Finances

International Energy Agency- Bombshell Report

Until about five years ago the International Energy Agency was beholden to Big Oil. It is no more. Its blockbuster report dropped on an unsuspecting world on 18 May raises deep questions about Big Oil’s survival much past the next decade. The report of 223 pages entitled Net Zero by 2050- A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, contains four main chapters, four appendices, and six pages of references. With ESG investing in ascendance, Alberta’s regulatory system of setting security requirements broken, now there is considerable doubt that long-term bitumen reserves have the value they once had.. The IEA volume is organized in four parts: implications of country’s net-zero pledges; global pathway to net-zero CO2 emissions in in 2050; sectoral pathways to net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050; and...

20May

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Credit Ratings, Government Finances

S&P downgrades Alberta to A (Stable) Moody’s maintains Aa3 rating

Citing COVID-19 and budgetary balances which have not "yet recovered from the slump in oil prices that began in 2014, to a greater degree than we had expected," S&P Global Ratings downgraded Alberta's long-term credit rating to A from A+. Today Moody's issued a release noting the completion of a periodic review of Alberta's ratings. No change to the rating was initiated. S&P Global Ratings There really wasn’t anything newsworthy in yesterday's downgrade announcement. The agency noted that Alberta’s after-capital deficits, that is Revenue less operating and capital expenses is the “largest of any local and regional government in the country this fiscal year and last” resulting in the one-notch downgrade. Of concern was a deterioration of liquidity: “free cash and investment balance...

11Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Budget 1982-83: A Message not sent

During the fall of 1981, Peter Lougheed's government was facing stagnant government revenue and, at the same time, pressing demands for additional spending during a time of historically high interest rates and rising unemployment. This memorandum, which was not sent, reflects the Treasurer's and Alberta Treasury's worries that spending was spiraling beyond the limits set by the Priorities Committee. This was an era when the notion that spending reductions really entailed reductions from what was being requested or needed or expected in light of inflation and population growth. This was an era where the capacity to raise revenue and the capacity to spend was bifurcated. At the federal level the position of Treasury Board President and Finance Minister was coincident with rising deficits, ...

28Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

The Perils of Economic Forecasting in a Commodity-based Economy

In the wake of the "energy settlement" of August 1981 when Trudeau and Lougheed toasted champagne, economists at Alberta Treasury's Budget Planning and Economics group were refreshing their economic forecasts. In the Economic Outlook reproduced below, attention focused on the anticipated mega-projects expected to drive Alberta's economy in the medium term. The Outlook reinforces the notion of Alberta as a single-commodity based economy relying on the construction and engineering sectors to drive economic growth and employment. As the Chart shows, things did not turn out quite what the analysts have thought they would based on econometric models based upon assumptions about the trajectory of various mega-projects. Very shortly after the projection, an inflection point was reached in 1982 ...

28Feb

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances

Alberta Budget 2021-Analysis

Highlights Economic assumptions on balance appear realistic with some upside Spending kept flat mainly through cuts to ministries except Health, K-12 Education, and Social Services Capital spending to remain elevated although next two years see a significant reduction. No new taxes or tax increases- nothing on revenue structure review Debt levels will rise to close to government’s fiscal anchor Economic Assumptions The Government seems to be following the playbook from Ralph Klein's early years in leading the province out of what had been chronic deficits. Conservative resource revenue forecasts based on past history rather than hoped-for future prices helped return the provincial government to balance quickly. These conservative revenue forecasts restrained the public and v...

26Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2021- the fine art form of scape-goating: Opinion

Finance Minister Toews has learned from his grandmaster, Premier Jason Kenney, the dark art of scape-goating. Budget 2021 offers more of the same- restraint in public sector spending which is, in fairness, what they have promised. Except for the disastrous decline in resource revenue and increased health spending due to COVID, the government has retreated from its promise to balance the budget in its first term. The scape-goats predictably are the federal government and the compensation levels for unionized public sector workers. The Alberta government continued to tilt at windmills like equalization payments and the federal government's environmental assessment process. Over nearly 2 years of UCP rule, total debt has risen from $92.8 billion to $133.6 billion and is projected to reach ...

25Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Sales Tax debate will be difficult for political parties to ignore

Updated 25 February 2021 On 24 February, the day before the UCP's third budget, the Globe and Mail reiterated its editorial position about a sales tax for Alberta. This perspective will be written off by political leaders as paternalistic, unwanted central Canadian twaddle. But the mood is definitely changing as a 2020 CBC-Calgary public opinion poll indicates. The non-debate by our political leaders has also been picked up by Alberta's business leaders. In a recent report Towards a Fiscally Sustainable Alberta- A Review of Provincial Government Finances, the Business Council of Alberta (BCA) of Alberta proclaims on its website: "Alberta, we have a problem." This message is not dissimilar to the language used by the Financial Review Commission's Report to Albertans issued in March 1993- a...

21Feb

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Government Finances, Politics

Post-Mortem Budget 2021

Updated 25 March 2021 Subscribers and readers wishing to watch the unedited recording of the event see immediately below: Topic: Alberta Budget Panel Date:Mar 11,2021 11:32 AM Mountain Time (US and Canada)Recording-1(1.15 GB)https://ualberta-ca.zoom.us/rec/play/Fho1Zu-z2P0siweIkLKS69c5I0qJayPVtifu-qxUYHMxfTjxc4FhEmkNKH45qzB6skdm4bOLgqfj5a69.TAUF0uNq74aG3bwRPasscode: S^hpKdE6 Event registration closed. Video recording will be available after the event. Economics Society of Northern Alberta Institute of Public Administration of Canada (Edmonton) The Parkland Institute University of Alberta Present Post-Mortem on Alberta Budget 2021 Noon: Thursday 11 March 2021 On 25 February, Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Travis Toews presents his third budget- the first item on ...