Economic Data Archives - Page 2 of 3

16Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Demographics, Economic Data, Energy, Society

Some charts

Below are several charts which yield a number of economic insights about the Alberta economy. Interprovincial migration The first chart illustrates the impact of interprovincial migration - people coming to and leaving Alberta since 1961.The chart shows five distinct periods associated with boom and bust conditions in the oil and gas industry. Periods where blue is dominant are boom periods where Alberta was attracting thousands more in-migrants than those leaving the province. These are periods of growing employment and occasional labour shortages. Where the brown colour is dominant, these are quarters when outflow of people exceeded inflows. Employment The chart below shows total employment, all occupations, for the province of Alberta since 2006. Alberta employment grows steadily unt...

28Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

The Perils of Economic Forecasting in a Commodity-based Economy

In the wake of the "energy settlement" of August 1981 when Trudeau and Lougheed toasted champagne, economists at Alberta Treasury's Budget Planning and Economics group were refreshing their economic forecasts. In the Economic Outlook reproduced below, attention focused on the anticipated mega-projects expected to drive Alberta's economy in the medium term. The Outlook reinforces the notion of Alberta as a single-commodity based economy relying on the construction and engineering sectors to drive economic growth and employment. As the Chart shows, things did not turn out quite what the analysts have thought they would based on econometric models based upon assumptions about the trajectory of various mega-projects. Very shortly after the projection, an inflection point was reached in 1982...

8Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Budget, Economic Data

Alberta Treasury Branches: Strategic Listening Posts

From the Provincial Archives of Alberta's collection of papers from the late Lou Hyndman comes an interesting case of the economic intelligence capacity of the Province's financial institution. As the Alberta cabinet's anxiety rose following the October 1980 federal budget and National Energy Program, evidence was being gathered on how damaging the federal policies were to the provincial economy. At the end of August 1981 the Office of the Superintendent of Alberta Treasury Branches (at the time the Superintendent of ATB was Fred Sparrow) prepared to update what were called "economic Assessment Reports" aggregated from Treasury Branch managers across the province. ATB logo pin Source: Pinterest The highly summarized five-page report divided the province into three "divisions"- Northern...

7Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Fiscal History

Hyndman papers- preparations for 1981-82 budget

There are a number of interesting things in the following memo to the Priorities Committee of Cabinet taken from the Hyndman papers. It is March 1981 and there is enormous uncertainty which the Lougheed government has not been accustomed to. A global recession going on and the National Energy Program has thrown the Lougheed government curves never faced before including higher levels of unemployment. This was a government that had enjoyed the spoils of office for nearly a decade and those spoils are under assault from outside forces over which it has no control. The response of the federal government ("Ottawa government" or "Trudeau government") has chosen to protect the interests of the consuming provinces- the most populous provinces of Ontario (over 100 seats) and Quebec (75 seats)...

25Nov

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Capital Spending, Economic Data, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Presentation to EQUS directors- 23 November

EQUS is a small, co-operative distributor of electricity to 12,000, mostly rural, customers. The organization is the product of a series of mergers of rural electrification co-operatives over the past two decades. EQUS employs about 100 staff with its head office in Innisfail. The presentation, provocatively entitled "Alberta's Crumbling Economic and Fiscal Foundation" builds on concerns about the future health of Alberta's economy in a world where international financial capital places more emphasis on renewable energy solutions. The presentation highlights the pivotal role of capital expenditures of the oil and gas sector which have driven the Alberta economy since 1947. Alberta's gross fixed capital formation (oil and gas, institutional, industrial, residential and non-residential bu...

6Nov

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Presentation to Professors Emeritus

Yesterday I presented to a small but engaged group of retired University of Alberta emeritus professors. My talk was provocatively entitled "Alberta's Crumbling Economic and Fiscal Foundation." Key points emphasized in the presentation include: Volatility in price of oil over past 6o years and its impact on provincial finances Over past 40 years Non-renewable resource revenue represents a high of nearly 50 per cent of own source revenue (excludes federal transfers) to lows of just under 10 per cent recently. Based on Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers data since 1947, Alberta collected royalties equivalent to about 10 per cent of the total value of production over this 70-year span. In the early 1980s, Albertans were receiving about one-third of the rent from their resource own...

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

31Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Government Finances

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

After the National Energy Program was announced, Alberta was about to enter a period of recession that would shape fiscal policy for over the next four decades. As this excerpt from a January 1981 memorandum from Deputy Provincial Treasurer A.F. (Chip) Collins reveals, the province's budget-makers faced a climate of great uncertainty. Over the coming months, Abpolecon.ca will be reporting the internal discussions, at the highest levels of the Alberta government, respecting economic activity and proposed budgetary measures. This tumultuous period offers interesting parallels to what Treasury Board and Finance budget-makers are dealing with. As this excerpt from Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman's files illustrates, 1981 was turning into annus horribilis. As the Treasury department prepa...

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

13Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fe...

25May

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman Papers

Alberta's Contribution to Confederation circa 1980 In August 1980, Alberta intergovernmental relations were heating up as the earlier Mellon memo attested to. The National Energy Program was about two months away from release, a release that would fuel the flames of western separatism. Concerns were festering in Alberta about the cost-benefits of remaining in Confederation. In the Briefing Note below, authored by Treasury officials in the Fiscal Policy and Economic Analysis Division documented the inflows and outflows to and from the federal Treasury over a 16-year period. The Table below summarizes two tables from the paper- the cumulative totals for provinces and a combined B.C., Yukon, and North West Territories and the discounted cumulative totals. The information was derive...

Transitioning to the Clean Energy Economy

31Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Economic Data, Opinion/Research

Transitioning to the Clean Energy Economy

Originally posted on 31 October 2017 Several headlines stood out over the past week, which, provide further context to the governing dilemma facing the New Democratic government. The dilemma is running a state that historically could run deficits seemingly indefinitely and not have to raise taxes. The second piece of the dilemma is the economic transition away from fossil fuel consumption. (more…)