Economic Data Archives

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

4May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

Updated 3 May 2025 Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Explanatory comment I have been working on this question for the better part of three weeks spurred on my the concatenation of Her fiery speech to the Legislative Assembly on 26 March, Her attacks on Carney and the trip to PungurU and Ben Shapiro, revealed She was exploring the idea of independence ("from Ottawa) or statehood ("Texas of the North). As this blogs shows it is charitable to say Smith is "flirting" with separatism. It's doubtful there was that much open animosity between Ottawa and Quebec during 2 referenda. Smith's fiery speech might be compared to pre-Civil War missives from the south to Washingto...

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

30Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Background In a June 2023 article in The Conversation I raised the question “Will Danielle Smith veer back to the right and towards Alberta separatism?” At the time, a month after Smith’s United Conservative Party won the general election, I argued that Alberta had an economic and financial “ace in the hole”- Alberta’s vast export surplus driven by conventional and unconventional oil. Alberta separation would mean that Canadians' standard of living would drop significantly as would the Canadian dollar. I also noted that, unlike Quebec Inc., the ownership of Alberta’s fossil fuel-based economy is largely controlled by American financia...

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...

30Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Investment, Opinion/Research

Book Review- John Rapley’s Twilight of the Money Gods

Twilight of the Money Gods, the title perhaps a nod to Frederick Nietzsche’s Twilight of the idols, is an explosive critique of the discipline of economics as a religion. John Rapley, according to his Globe and Mail biography is political economist specializing in global development, the world economy and economic history. Rapley born in Canada, completed doctoral studies in Canada and pursued post-doctoral work at Oxford University. This book is the best book I have read on the history of economic thought. Particularly interesting is his description of the evolution of political economy of Smith and Ricardo into the neoclassical canon of Alfred Marshall. He situates the great debate on free trade within the context of a rising and dominant and the Britannica English corn laws. He ...

30May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s Public Accounts Committee- Thoughts on Accountability and Public Service Neutrality

The purpose of this post is to the delve into the accountability aspects of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in Alberta through the lens of one meeting which took place on 7 May 2024. The transcript of the meeting can be found here and the video proceedings here. Readers may wish to skip over the detail about the meeting to read the conclusions at the foot of this essay. I attended this meeting because a colleague and I provided briefing material for Marlin Schmidt, NDP MLA for Edmonton Goldbar about the Auditor General’s report on Key Audit Matters. This post serves as a companion piece to my interview with Professor Jared Wesley on the state of democracy in Alberta. As discussed below, the Public Accounts Committee serves as one of the principal structures of holding governm...

7Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Economic Data, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

The Frustrations of a FOIPP applicant- the case of the APP (Part 2)

Updated 8 April 2023 Key Takeaways By January 2023 all the technical work had been completed for a launch of the APP plan four months before the UCP campaign made no mention of reviving this policy recommendation of the "Fair Deal" Panel. The public service relied on the expertise of outside parties due to lack of in house actuarial expertise. This FOIPP disclosure did not reveal how much the government ultimately paid even though Smith provided the $1.8-million figure to her 630 CHED Saturday call-in radio show. Existing administrative structures aren't conducive for sharing information as the onus is on the deputy head to decide what to disclose making it very difficult for senior officials to offer advice contrary to the preference of their political masters. The "Fa...

5Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

Prosper Free Enterprise! More handouts to multinationals

Updated 20 December 2023 If low taxes was the supreme good of libertarian governments and eliminated the need for additional company specific grants, why is the UCP government doling out up to $5-billion in additional handouts mainly to foreign=owned corporations for capturing carbon. The announcement by Premier Smith and the heretofore missing in action Brian Jean- Alberta's energy minister paved the way for another major announcement, this time Premier Smith alongside Deputy Minister Chrystia Freeland (see below). Alberta Carbon Capture Program Another successfully orchestrated communications announcement by Smith came this past Tuesday 28 November. With the wind in her sails, Smith has come off two federal high court victories (impact assessment and toxic plastics...

16Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta 5, Ottawa 2- Re. Impact Assessment Act (Part 2)

Before turning to the dissenting opinion, it may be instructive to note some of the key points made by the Alberta Court of Appeal (ABCA) in their 10 May 2022 reference decision. The reference opinion may be found at CanLit. ABCA Majority In the majority ABCA opinion, considerable space was devoted to the history, purpose and scope, of the section 92A resource amendment (paras 74-83). The majority contended Provincial governments should not be faulted for focussing their attention on matters important to their citizens. That includes not only the environment but also the economy. It is a false dichotomy to suggest that the two are mutually exclusive. Without a strong economy, a province’s ability to respond to the needs of its citizens, including meeting the challenges of climate chang...

Alberta Pension Plan- conversation with retired professors at UofA

6Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Economic Data, Employment, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Pension Plan- conversation with retired professors at UofA

I was excited to present to retired professors from the University of Alberta last Thursday my views on the marketing campaign by the Alberta government to "engage" the public on the supposed benefits of an Alberta pension plan. My focus was on the political messaging. The Youtube video can be viewed here. The political messaging created by the Government of Alberta is an expensive communications effort (close to $10-million of Albertans’ tax dollars). The friendly website "Alberta Pension Plan" begins with “What’s in it for you.” The web page design is classically an appeal to Albertans’ sense of place and community with pictures of the Rockies and foothills and wistful pictures of a handsome seniors’ couple. The pitch focuses mainly on the benefits that would be supposed...

An Alberta Pension Plan- Thoughts, Ideas, Experiments -Episode 6 with Trevor Tombe, Virendra Gupta and Ellen Nygaard

26Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Economic Data, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

An Alberta Pension Plan- Thoughts, Ideas, Experiments -Episode 6 with Trevor Tombe, Virendra Gupta and Ellen Nygaard

Background On September 21st Premier Danielle Smith, Finance Minister Nate Horner and former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning gave a press conference about an Alberta Pension Plan. There were two features of the conference- first the public release of a long-anticipated report from actuarial and consulting firm Lifeworks. The second aspect of the release was the announcement of what is being called an engagement panel led by former Treasurer Jim Dinning. Dinning served under Ralph Klein and then contested unsuccessfully the PC leadership in 2006. Jim Dinning was Alberta Treasurer when CPP reforms were undertaken Source: Calgary Herald At the news conference Dinning said this about the idea of an Alberta Pension Plan (APP)- ”it could be a game changer for the financial ...