Agencies Archives - Page 2 of 5

18Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Investment, Politics

2023-24 First Quarter Fiscal Update

The First Quarter Fiscal Update released on 31 August 2023 by Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Nate Horner showed marginal change in the budgetary surplus estimated last February. This analysis looks through these numbers to underlying trends. With oil prices now over $90, there is some cause for optimism. So far this year WTI oil prices have averaged about $76.50 U.S./barrel which is about $2.50 U.S. lower than the budget estimate. Much will depend on whether western economies achieve a “soft landing” avoiding a deep recession with falling oil demand. On 14 September DBRS Morningstar raised Alberta’s credit rating a notch to AA (see discussion below). Is spending out of control? No On page 4 in the Fiscal Plan Summary table, total expenditure was $64.5 billion in 2022-23...

Oil and Gas royalties, unpaid municipal taxes, and unaddressed reclamation

17Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research

Oil and Gas royalties, unpaid municipal taxes, and unaddressed reclamation

In June 2022, Alberta’s then Energy Minister Sonya Savage, a former executive with the Canadian Energy Pipelines Association, warned the federal government not to consider a tax on windfall profits of the energy industry. When asked about the oil industry’s record cash flows and remediation liabilities, Savage stated: “The current spike in oil prices isn’t enough reason to require the industry to spend more on cleaning up the tens of thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells in the province.” In reflecting on this statement, it suggests that expanded spending by Alberta’ producers on remediation expenses might imply royalty payments to Alberta might fall. In short, the province may have a short-term financial interest in not losing revenue when reclamation spending increases. This cont...

11Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB, Banks, Financial Institutions

Hyndman papers- Pocklington introduced to the Alberta government via ATB- 1983

The following extract, from Lou Hyndman's files when he was Provincial Treasurer, is an undated, unsigned briefing note about Alberta Treasury Branches (now ATB Financial) concerning a refinancing and resecuring of debt. From the note it appears that Pocklington's primary bank dealings were not with ATB but with another undisclosed financial institution. According to the note, dealings between ATB and Pocklington were "satisfactory." Pocklington at that time had interests in Edmonton Motors, the Oilers and Fidelity Trust whose ownership had been effectively taken from Pocklington. At the bottom of the briefing note was the very clear statement that ATB nor the Government of Alberta was interested in acquiring any interest in the Oilers' hockey club. The $11-million debenture soon grew...

6Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Energy, Environment, Politics

Balancing Pool Act- Public interest or political posturing

On 21 April, apparently in response to opposition demands that the UCP government stop withdrawals of utility services and get cheques or rebates into the hands of Albertans quickly, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity Dale Nally issued a news release. During a 17-minute news conference Nally took the former NDP government to task when releasing a March 2021 report from Deloitte LLP on the financial position of Alberta's Balancing Pool (ABP). The report concluded that the cost of the policy changes totaled $1.34-billion. It is ironic that this is about the same number that the UCP government lost from its bet on TC Energy's Keystone XL pipeline. Dale Nally, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity Nally was in true fighting form demonstrating lessons he h...

Presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs

26Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs

On 31 March I made the following presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs about my Parkland paper Can AIMCo be Fixed? You can view the presentation on Youtube here. The discussion after the presentation was stimulating and wide ranging and highlighted concerns about government politicians interfering with public sector pensions. The Medicine Hat News had a story about the presentation on 13 April 2022. Below are my speaking notes and below that is a PDF of revised slide deck. (One of the numbers in Figure 2 had to be restated.) "Good afternoon everyone! I am speaking to you from Treaty 6 territory, a traditional gathering place for diverse Indigenous peoples including the Cree, Blackfoot, Métis, Nakota Sioux, and many others whose histories,...

19Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Investment

De Havilland -Update

Updated 28 April 2022/2 May 2022 In July 2021 Abpolecon.ca ran a story A coup for Invest Alberta? that suggested or predicted that the De Havilland Corporation would bring jobs to the Calgary area. On 31 March 2022, the Globe and Mail published a Canadian Press story providing some information about an announcement that 500 jobs would be created by the aircraft manufacturer in Calgary. According to the story, De Havilland has launched the De Havilland DHC-515 Firefighter program to build on its Canadair CL-215 and CL-415 aircraft. De Havilland Canada acquired the Canadair CL program in 2016. The company already has signed letters of intent purchase the first 22 aircraft, and expects to make its first deliveries by 2025. Final assembly of the aircraft will take place in Calgary, where s...

17Dec

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

Can AIMCo be Fixed? (2)- Kenney redefines the pension bargain

Updated 23 December 2021 Hear interview between Bob Ascah and Shaye Ganam here. Read te 21 December 2021 Edmonton Journal opinion piece by Bob Ascah. Premier Kenney made some new policy pronouncements about the Alberta government's liability with respect to public sector pensions at yesterday's Omicron press conference. His response to a Globe and Mail reporter's question (minute 47) must be a shock to Finance Minister Toews' and belies over 20-years of government policy to disengage Alberta taxpayers' liability from the unfunded liabilities for public sector pensions. If not walked back, it may haave some influence over the province's credit rating. James Keller The Globe and Mail. This is going way, way off topic. The Parkland Institute put out a report today on AIMCo with a lot of c...

16Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment

Can AIMCo be Fixed?

On Wednesday, the Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta released my study Can AIMCo be Fixed? Key findings and recommendations of the study were: AIMCo is one of the most significant provincial agencies in Alberta- its importance is central to the financial security of nearly 500,000 people Since a pension is intended to provide financial security in retirement- any behavior by government, the asset manager or pension boards which undermines security or creates uncertainty erodes trust which is foundational to the pension bargain. AIMCo’s investment performance has, since its inception, been mediocre and recent poor returns contributes to the erosion of the trust. The ownership structure of AIMCo must be changed- AIMCo’s sole owner today is the Government of Alberta even thoug...

4Jul

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Agencies, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s environmental bills coming due. Who will Pay?

The release of The Big Cleanup: How enforcing the Polluter Pay principle can unlock Alberta’s next great jobs boom on Tuesday 29 June by the Alberta Liabilities Disclosure Project is an important next step in the Province coming to terms with its oil and gas legacy. The easy-to-read 40-page report comes complete with nuggets of information to jar government and industry policy-makers along with a dozen recommendations to minimize the costs to Canadian and Albertan taxpayers. Preliminary There is little doubt that Albertans have enjoyed the fruits of the periodic capital investment booms of the energy industry since the 1950s. These fruits included low unemployment rates, highest incomes in Canada, generous government services, low taxes, and Canada’s highest “standard of living.” Standard...

22Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Energy, Environment, Health, Politics

The times they are a’changin

Come senators, congressmenPlease heed the callDon't stand in the doorwayDon't block up the hallFor he that gets hurtWill be he who has stalledThe battle outside ragin'Will soon shake your windowsAnd rattle your walls… Bob Dylan On Thursday 18 June a remarkable event took place. The near simultaneous release of an Alberta Energy Regulator (AER)/Canadian Environment Impact Assessment Agency (CEIAA) joint panel rejection of the controversial Grassy Meadows coal project and a news release from Alberta's Environment and Energy ministers "respecting" the Joint Panel’s recommendations. The Thursday announcements followed declarations by federal Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson that all coal projects which produced selenium would be subject to federal review due to the environmental impa...