Last Thursday, Premier Danielle Smith wrote Prime Minister Trudeau about the “just transition” legislation that the Liberal government will introduce this year. At first blush this letter was seen as an “olive branch”. In Smith’s words:-
We can continue with the endless court challenges, legislation to protect jurisdictional rights and inflammatory media coverage over our disagreements, or, as is my strong preference, Alberta and Ottawa can work in partnership on a plan that will signal to all Canadians and investors from around the world that our governments have cooperatively designed a series of incentives and initiatives intended to achieve the following objectives
The attempt to dial down the rhetoric may be her government’s response to internal party polling that indicates fights with Ottawa are not top of mind with Alberta voters.
The letter attempted to articulate common objectives for co-operation. These objectives included:
- Reducing of net emissions;
- “Accelerating private and public investment in Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), Bitumen Beyond Combustion, Geothermal technology, petrochemicals, hydrogen, lithium, helium, zero-emissions vehicles and nuclear technologies;”
- Attracting and growing employment in both conventional extraction and “emerging industries;” and
- Increasing the development of LNG. (Emphasis added)
Notable among these “shared” objectives is the choice of words on net emissions which would allow constant or even increased oil production “offset” by various technologies like CCUS. Her letter essentially repeats the proposals of the Pathways Alliance which hopes to extend the lives of their oilsands operations to 2050 and beyond. In addition, there is reference to hydrogen and other elements which can be derived from oil, bitumen, and natural gas. In short, these objectives, many of which the Trudeau government is generously funding like CCUS and hydrogen, go beyond the status quo and for the industry represent growth opportunities. In sum, the Trudeau government, in spite of calling for a 42 per cent reduction in absolute emissions from the mostly Alberta centred oil industry, is shifting to an acceptance of status quo on gross emissions ameliorated by future technologies. Net emissions give cover to the industry and in some circles may seem a virtuous and common-sense way to manage the transition. It is also justified in the name of “ethical oil” and “world leading” environmental practices and regulation.
But the olive branch of co-operation assumes that Stephen Guilbeault will stay silent as federal ministers Jonathan Wilkinson and Seamus O’Regan sympathetically entertain Alberta’s objectives from employment and industry perspectives.
Iron fist in velvet glove
However, not everything in the letter was sweetness and light. Smith had a list of demands which included.
- Stop using “just transition” and replace with “sustainable jobs”- (a cover for rationalizing industry expansion);
- Incentivize investment in the conventional oil industry as well as in “emerging technologies’:
- “Demonstrate that no provision of the Act will be designed to phase out or reduce Alberta’s conventional oil and natural gas sector and workforce;”
- Commit to expand LNG exports; and
- Promise that you and your Government will work with Alberta in partnership to set reasonable and meaningful emissions reductions targets and will not unilaterally impose such targets on Alberta’s energy, agriculture and other industrial sectors on a go forward basis. (Emphasis added)
The use of the highlighted verbs almost contain a directive- capitulate or pay the price! Smith’s letter also extols frequently stated virtues of a strong energy sector for Canada- “providing good paying jobs for thousands and contributing billions of dollars in tax revenue for all levels of government.”
Federal response
Smith called for a face-to-face meeting with the Prime Minister in February to head off the ‘just transition” legislation. The federal government’s response came from three ministers- Jonathan Wilkinson the Natural Resources minister and advocate for the industry, Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan from Newfoundland and a former Natural Resources minister, and Randy Boissonault, the Minister of Tourism and Associate Minister of Finance, an M.P. from Edmonton. The formal federal response was via Wilkinson’s Twitter account. This method acknowledges Smith’s great facility with tweeting as central to communicating and her communications strategy. Trudeau’s passing responsibility for the friendly response also sens a signal that matters should be left in the capable hands of ministers. We shall see how successful this will be.
Source: Government of Canada
Wilkinson’s response was designed to placate and sooth Albertan’s fears. Note Guilbeault was shut out of the conversation presumably to assuage Smith. The milquetoast response began “Much of what you outlined is very much in line with what the federal government will bring forward including preference for the term “Sustainable Jobs.” The tweet went on to note federal support for Air Products hydrogen facility and the close and co-operative working relationship with Energy minister Guthrie and Environment Minister Savage. It ends with a pledge to continue working with Alberta’s provincial cabinet, unions and all partners “on this important work.”
Guthrie News Release- 30 January 2023
In an effort to reinforce the message of common economic, fiscal and employment interests of Alberta and the federal government, this morning Energy Minister Peter Guthrie issued a press release on January’s energy sector update and the future of Alberta’s energy sector. The release repeated the message of good jobs, investment, export revenue, and the promise of 25 (!) 25 carbon storage hub proposals.
A strong Alberta energy sector is good for families across the country. It means more affordable energy, more high-paying jobs and more tax revenue to help pay for hospitals, roads, schools and every other sector of society.
The release ends with the boilerplate claim ”Alberta is the responsible, reliable and ethical energy producing powerhouse the world needs right now and into the future.”
Goal conflict
As far as Alberta is concerned the train has either left the station or is leaving the station on CCUS and other technologies to guarantee future high paying union jobs (and executive salaries) for the next 30 years. How the federal government will reconcile its international commitments and specific commitments to reduce fossil fuel production emissions by 42 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 contained in the federal emissions reduction plan is anyone’s guess.
Ottawa, ONTARIO, Canada on October 21, 2021.
© HOC-CDC
According to the federal plan, in 2019 the oil and gas sector was responsible for 26 per cent of Canada’s total emissions.
The energy industry has powerful allies in the federal departments of Finance and Natural Resources.
Federal propitiation through the friendly triumvirate of sympathetic ministers continues the confusing messages about Canada’s international commitment to reducing in absolute terms its GHG emissions. The federal government’s continuing failure to lead, its uncritical acceptance of CCUS and other future technologies and the isolation of Stephan Guilbeault will not serve the Canadian and Alberta public in the long-term.
Related Posts