AB Pol Econ

15Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Uncategorized

Hyndman Papers- Speech to Alberta Municipalities- 1982

Excerpt from Speech to Alberta Municipal Districts & Counties (pp. 12-16) (Undated- likely late November 1982 after 2 November 1982 provincial election) The following speech given by Peter Lougheed in November 1982 set the stage for the Alberta government's post election Alberta Economic Resurgence Program. (The PDF of the excerpt of the speech in below) The speech is notable as signaling the government's intention to restrain government spending and holding public sector wage costs to below the private speech. His language was unusually blunt to this gathering of Alberta's municipal councilors, reeves, and mayors. Crucial to the financing of the resurgence program was a return to direct borrowing of the province- a rare event in the post-war period- and tapping all investment incom...

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

9Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

Corrected 9 January 2023 Sovereignty Act applications- before the election? The application of the Sovereignty Act before the May provincial general election has a lot of moving parts. The Act came into force on 15 December, the date of royal assent. At present Premier Smith is constructing the case along with her finance minister Travis Toews and jobs and economic development minister Brian Jean of a competent government managing finances prudently and attracting investment. In a “Special Economic Report” sent out to UCP supporters on 7 January the Premier highlights that under her leadership 41,500 full time jobs were added in December, most from the private sector. The communication reminds Albertans that they enjoy the highest wages in Canada and the lowest taxes. On the fi...

2Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Environment, Politics

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 1

Report by Todd Hirsch for NDP on windfall. In October former ATB Financial Todd Hirsch was given a mandate by NDP leader Rachel Notley to study what to do with windfall revenues received by the province’s treasury. Hirsch was a consummate pick of Notley. (Full disclosure- I hired Todd as ATB's first economist through a lengthy process which I won't bore you with.) Hirsch was ATB’s chief economist for 15 years and knows the province’s economy inside and out. Hirsch’s persona, excellent speaking raves and travelling to ever part of the province speaking and learning about Alberta’s economy will build enormous economic credibility which the NDP hopes to “capitalize” on. There are only so many financial alternatives to parceling out a budget surplus: 1) pay down debt, 2) spend the money, o...

25Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Headlines from 2022

December A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act- Hyndman papers- Pocklington introduced to the Alberta government via ATB- 1983 Peter Pocklington and Wayne Gretzky Source: CBS Sports Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue Despite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage First published in The Conversation and reprinted in paper edition of The Globe and Mail November Presentation to the Real Estate Council of Alberta What does Danielle Smith think? Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch October Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style Alberta PST- ESNA presentation Brian Jean Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-...

12Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act

Much ink, digital and audio content has been accumulated in the nearly two weeks that has elapsed from the Throne Speech and introduction of Bill 1. the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act (ASWUCA) became live. Pundits, learned professors, business people and the loyal opposition have weighed in. The reviews have been rather negative for the most part with much of the criticism aimed at the Henry VIII clauses embedded in the Bill. I walk through the main portions of Bill 1 offering comments and opinions. From what Premier Smith tells us she is open to changes. These changes came a week later after heavy criticism from many quarters including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. At the end of the day, the Act may have all the huffing and puffing that went into the equalization r...

11Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB, Banks, Financial Institutions

Hyndman papers- Pocklington introduced to the Alberta government via ATB- 1983

The following extract, from Lou Hyndman's files when he was Provincial Treasurer, is an undated, unsigned briefing note about Alberta Treasury Branches (now ATB Financial) concerning a refinancing and resecuring of debt. From the note it appears that Pocklington's primary bank dealings were not with ATB but with another undisclosed financial institution. According to the note, dealings between ATB and Pocklington were "satisfactory." Pocklington at that time had interests in Edmonton Motors, the Oilers and Fidelity Trust whose ownership had been effectively taken from Pocklington. At the bottom of the briefing note was the very clear statement that ATB nor the Government of Alberta was interested in acquiring any interest in the Oilers' hockey club. The $11-million debenture soon grew...

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

5Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

Between the first quarter update at the end of August and the mid-year update of November 25th? a new premier took charge. In the tbf-2022-23-first-quarter (as its PDF is known) the province expected to collect $75.9 billion in revenue. In tbf-2022-23-mid-year total revenue is $76.9 billion. The Mid-term Update was called “Strong economy, strong Alberta” equating Alberta to economy. The press conference video is here. Spending Spending has increased from $62.1-billion in the 2022 Budget, including COVID-19 recovery spending, to $64.7-billion in the fiscal update or by $2.6-billion. Increased spending comes from $300-million in electricity rebates, “affordability initiatives” of $1.2-billion, $308 million for higher costs of selling oil, $340 million for Health including $174 million for th...

Despite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage

4Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Investment

Despite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage

Published: December 1, 2022 1.55pm EST from the Conversation with permission. Re-published in newspaper edition of The Globe and Mail, Alberta section, on 17 December 2022 and online at Winnipeg Free Press on 2 December 2022. Re-published in The Tyee on 11 January 2023 At the end of the third quarter reporting season in October, the Big Four oilsands producers continued to report record profit levels. Collectively, Cenovus, CNRL, Imperial Oil and Suncor earned $5.8 billion in the third quarter and $23.1 billion in the first nine months of 2022. The average return on capital during the period was almost 25 per cent. The only minor hiccup was Suncor’s reported loss — primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge of $3.4 billion against its Fort Hills assets. Despite the write-down, Suncor s...

Presentation to the Real Estate Council of Alberta 23 November 2022

26Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Commercial, Investment, Retail sales

Presentation to the Real Estate Council of Alberta 23 November 2022

This past Wednesday I was invited to speak to the directors and executive management at the Real Estate Council of Alberta, or RECA. RECA is the regulatory body for Alberta's real estate market. Alberta is unique as regulation of the real estate market is mainly in the hands of industry. For example the licensing and disciplining of real estate agents is conducted by RECA's board of directors and councils. This is termed "industry self-regulation." There is government oversight in the sense that the government appoints three of RECA's seven-person board. RECA's annual report a wealth of information for the various segments of the real estate market (real estate brokerage, mortgage brokerage, property management, and condominium management licensees). The website also hosts a great deal...

12Nov

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Budget, Energy, Health, Opinion/Research

What does Danielle Smith think?

Updated and corrected 3 December 2022 See also a related BlogPost for the Parkland Institute What Was She Thinking? A Glimpse Into Danielle Smith’s Mind published 2 December 2022 Perhaps the best glimpse into Premier Smith’s thinking on a whole range of critical public policy issues is contained in a 20-page paper entitled “Alberta’s Key Challenges and Opportunities.” This paper was part of the School of Public Policy’s pre-publication series called the Alberta Futures Project. This paper was published in June 2021 before oil and gas prices rose substantially changing the province’s fiscal picture. What is surprising is the absence of a discussion of a sovereignty act and confronting federal overreach central to her winning the UCP leadership. In this article, I examine fundamental v...