AB Pol Econ

30Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Politics

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments Episode 4- Conversation with Robert Bhatia

This conversation occurred one week before the provincial election and canvassed three main topics- fiscal and economic policies, and politics. Click here to see the conversation. Robert Bhatia is a retired, long-term Alberta public servant rising to the position of deputy minister. He served as deputy minister in four ministries including Alberta Revenue and Alberta Finance. During his tenure he served on the boards of provincial agencies including the Alberta Investment Management Corporation and the Credit Union Deposit Guarantee Corporation. Since his retirement, he has joined the Local Authorities Pension Plan Board, was chair of the Alberta Balancing Pool and was named as a public member to the Credit Union Central Alberta board of directors where he is now Vice-Chair. He had signi...

The Conversation-Will Danielle Smith stay moderate or move back to the right — and towards Alberta separatism?

15Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Environment, Health, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

The Conversation-Will Danielle Smith stay moderate or move back to the right — and towards Alberta separatism?

This article was published on 15 June 2023 in The Conversation. Reproduced with permission from The Conversation. With a fresh and workable majority, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is facing the choice of conforming to her moderate election stance or pushing the strategies of various quasi-separatist groups like Take Back Alberta and Project Confederation. If she opts to move from the centre to the far right again, controversies involving the federal government, government workers and environmentalists will ensue. As a political scientist, former Alberta public servant, financial institution executive and university administrator and researcher, I have been watching politics in Alberta for more than 40 years. At the present time, political pundits are contemplating how Smith, with a fre...

6Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Capital Spending, Economic Data, Education, Energy, Government Finances, Investment

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 3- Lindsay Tedds

To watch the conversation go to Youtube This conversation was recorded at 1 p.m. on Thursday 18 May, before the leaders' debate with Professor Lindsay Tedds Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary. Her research interests are eclectic and range from tax policy and public policy design and implementation involving a trans-disciplinary approach to harnesses the strengths of economics, law, public administration, and intersectionality. Our talk ranged widely from income inequality, building an inclusive workplace, the importance of policy stability for investment, societal values, contradictions between the UCP's socialistic spending promises and its free markets' position, education policy, municipal property taxes, environmental liabilities, the challenge of fu...

Initial Reactions -Alberta 2023 election- Opinion and Analysis

1Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Initial Reactions -Alberta 2023 election- Opinion and Analysis

Updated 27 December 2023 This post stems from a friend's questions concerning the implications of the 29 May election results. Seats in the assembly? 38 NDP, UCP 48, "Independent" Jennifer Johnson polled ahead with 5,789 votes to the NDP's Dave Dale's 2,477 votes in the Lacombe-Ponoka riding, These numbers may change with recounts. https://results.elections.ab.ca/8400 Official tally will be Thursday late next week Price of Oil? who knows? Provincial royalties/personal and corporate tax revenues? Will know the actuals to March 31 2023 at the end of June when consolidated financial statements are published. For 2023-24 the first quarter results will be published by the end of August. Budget 23-24 used $79 U.S. per barrel. To the end of May from April 1 WTI ha...

31May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Fiscal History, Politics

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 2- Lori Williams

To watch the conversation click here. In the second of a series of conversations with well known Albertans, Bob Ascah speaks to Professor Lori Williams of Mount Royal University. This conversation was recorded on Thursday 18, before the leadership debate. The discussion delved into the 2023 election which, at just past the mid-point remained too close to call. Ms. Williams identified health care and affordability as the key policy issues in this election. Other topics covered included how safe are the 41 "rural seats" for the UCP? Williams noted that during the 2019 election, Jason Kenney's controversial history as a student at a San Francisco Jesuit seminary this was generally ignored in the campaign. So why did Smith's leadership opponents not dig out these con...

29May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Alberta’s Crack Cocaine: Challenges for the next Premier- Opinion

On the eve of Alberta's closest election and arguably since 1935, it's most crucial, I am reminded of an analogy I heard first around 2013. The term was used in a public forum on the recent Alberta budget. Grant Robertson, a career Alberta public servant and recently retired former deputy minister in Treasury Board compared Alberta's non-renewable resource revenue dependence with the use of crack cocaine. His comment produced a titter in the audience. When I heard this phrase come up again recently in my conversation with Todd Hirsch on 8 May, one week into the provincial election, I took notice. Mr. Hirsch, the well known ATB Financial former economist was likewise using this phrase in the same way used by Mr. Robertson about a decade ago. The ups and downs of Alberta's roller coaster a...

16May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 1- Todd Hirsch

To watch the conversation go to Youtube In the first of a series of conversations with well respected and informed Albertans, Todd Hirsch, best known as for his role as the Chief Economist with ATB Financial, discussed three challenges faced by Alberta. These challenges are fiscal, economic, and political. This series, begun during the hotly contested 2023 provincial general election, is designed to engage readers on subjects which, regrettably, are not being discussed on the election campaign trail. These issues will form the real challenges that a new government will need to confront over the next four years. In the conversation which took place on May 8th, Hirsch reveals some of the background to his report for the NDP "A Better Future." He had two conditions stipulated in doing t...

4May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Alberta election: Is the province’s energy regulator acting in the public interest?

The below article was published in The Conversation on Thursday 4 May 2023. Reproduced with permission from The Conversation. Reprinted in The Tyee 4 May 2023 as "Who’s Going to Pay to Clean Up the Oil and Gas Mess in Alberta?" Alberta’s claim that it’s a responsible energy producer are increasingly ringing hollow. Efforts by oil and gas companies to restore old mines and wells so that the land around them is returned to its original form — known as reclamation — have been sorely lacking, and they’re failing to pay municipal property taxes. Premier Danielle Smith lobbied for oil and gas companies to have their royalty payments forgiven to compensate them for cleaning up dirty wells — something they were already legally obligated to do. Industry regulations are ineffective. We can help yo...

Watching and Weathering the Withering Rise in Interest Rates

24Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Economic Data, Financial Institutions, Government Finances

Watching and Weathering the Withering Rise in Interest Rates

Last Thursday I was invited to present some thoughts about the impact of rising of interest rates to the weekly KEI Webinar. The recording can be found here. There was an engaging conversation afterwards which touched on the recent banking crisis, crypto-currencies, government deficits, prospects for a global recession, performance of central banks particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the future of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Some humour was intended to be inserted with a showing of the famous Two Johns- Bird and Fortune on the Subprme Crisis The following text are speaking notes which were loosely followed. All date is from the Federal Reserve Board website. "Well thank you Perry for inviting me to provide some commentary around the impact...

Oil and Gas royalties, unpaid municipal taxes, and unaddressed reclamation

17Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research

Oil and Gas royalties, unpaid municipal taxes, and unaddressed reclamation

In June 2022, Alberta’s then Energy Minister Sonya Savage, a former executive with the Canadian Energy Pipelines Association, warned the federal government not to consider a tax on windfall profits of the energy industry. When asked about the oil industry’s record cash flows and remediation liabilities, Savage stated: “The current spike in oil prices isn’t enough reason to require the industry to spend more on cleaning up the tens of thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells in the province.” In reflecting on this statement, it suggests that expanded spending by Alberta’ producers on remediation expenses might imply royalty payments to Alberta might fall. In short, the province may have a short-term financial interest in not losing revenue when reclamation spending increases. This cont...