AB Pol Econ

21Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Investment

Originally posted 21 June 2016 Investment in Alberta is highly cyclical due to the resource base of the oilsands located in the Fort McMurray (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo) area. Since the federal and provincial governments agreed to a resource development framework in the late 1990s, tens of billions of dollars have been invested in both oilsands mining and in-situ facilities. Since 2005, one could argue that the whole Alberta economy has been driven by the investment boom in the Fort McMurray area as a number of large Canadian (CNRL, Suncor-PetroCanada, Nexen, Cenovus-Encana, Husky) and multi-national corporations (Exxon-Mobil, StatOil, Total, Shell) competed to exploit this resource base. (more…)

20Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Environment

Update Since the last post a great deal has happened in the provincial government's approach to climate. The recognition that climate change is a serious financial and economic matter, not just "political" was provided by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane in a speech a couple weeks ago in Montreal. Lane observed: climate change itself and actions to address it will have material and pervasive effects on Canada’s economy and financial system. While many of these will play out over many decades, I will argue that they are already starting to become important. So, the Bank needs to consider these effects as we deliver on our mandate to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. (more…)

20Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Education, Uncategorized

Education

Originally posted 20 June 2016 As the provincial budget approaches, various education lobby groups are seeking to influence (at the last minute since all key decisions have been made by now - 8 March 2017) the government to support their sector's priorities. The articles below highlight the desire of private schools to head off government veering to de-fund home-schooling and private charter schools and to place the money into public education. Another perennial request is funding for new schools. (more…)

17Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Residential, Uncategorized

Residential

Originally posted 17 June 2016 Housing prices remain relatively stable despite significant job losses. New housing permits have fallen but not precipitously which is surprising given the ongoing job losses. Below is a chart that shows the number of building permits issued for Alberta dwellings since 1970. This monthly chart shows seasonal volatility. The plunge in permits from the late 1980s to the early 2000s is evident as well as the booms in the early 1970s and the early 2000s. (more…)

13Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Politics

My time at Alberta NDP convention

On June 10-12, I attended my very first party convention in Calgary witnessing an historic meeting after over 110 years of right leaning governments. This is not to say that during some mandates, the governing party introduced radical legislation- for instance during the early mandates of the United Farmers of Alberta (1921-1935), Social Credit (1935-1971), and the Progressive Conservatives (1971-2015). All political parties in government become more conservative over time- seemingly more interested in remaining in power than shaking the boat. My initial impressions at the event were as follows: First the convention was well organized and classy (at the Hyatt Regency no less!). And unlike the NDP convention in Edmonton held earlier this year, controversy was avoided. Second, as Don Brai...

Alberta’s Agencies, Boards and Commissions (ABCs)

13Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Alberta’s Agencies, Boards and Commissions (ABCs)

The Bolton Committee In September 2014, prior to the provincial general election, then Premier Jim Prentice appointed a three person committee to examine the four major financial agencies owned by the provincial government: ATB Financial, Agricultural Financial Services Corporation, Alberta Investment Management Corporation, and Alberta Capital Finance Authority. The committee was led by Hugh Bolton, an accountant who was the Chair of the City of Edmonton's EPCOR Utilities and the chair of Capital Power, a company spun out of EPCOR. Also serving on the committee were two well known financial executives: Linda Hohol a former director of ATB and the former President of the TSX Venture Exchange. Larry Pollock, the former CEO of Canadian Western Bank and a director of EPCOR. All ag...

25May

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research

Government needs a set of fresh eyes to look at Investment Manager

Few Alberta municipal workers, health care workers, police officers, or provincial civil servants have ever heard of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). This corporation, established by statute in 2007, and operating since 2008, now manages over $90 billion in investments, including the assets of the Heritage Fund. The corporation manages money for 26 pension, endowment, and government entities. AIMCo manages over $46 billion on behalf of roughly 336,000 active and retired members of public pension plans representing hundreds of government and agency employers. Prior to 2008, the management of these large investment funds had been undertaken by public servants employed by the Finance Ministry. The success of this organization is important for all Alberta residents, not j...

25May

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Budget 2016

Prelude to First Quarter Fiscal Update More dreary news surfaced on 11 August when July's drilling rights sales were announced by the province's energy department. The CBC post based on Dan Healing's article (link below) showed how volatile this source of revenue has been for the Alberta government. In 2011 when oil and gas prices were high and the Montney and Duvernay formations were "discovered", $3.5 billion poured into the province's coffers versus perhaps $125 million this fiscal year. Data on the number of land sales per year. the number of parcels sold, the value of the sales and the average price per hectare is available at Alberta energy land sales history. Institute for Public Economics' Post Mortem on Provincial Budget April 2016 As reported in the Edmonton Journal on Fr...

Redwater court decisions sides with lenders

21May

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Bankruptcies

Redwater court decisions sides with lenders

Redwater Resources -Update Originally published 21 May 2016 The Alberta Court of Appeal on 24 April upheld Justice Wittman's judgment supporting Grant Thornton as receiver in the Redwater Resources case. The Redwater court decision promises to become a showdown between the capacity of lenders to realize on the security of oil wells versus the rights of the Crown, the owner of the resource and the regulator. In a densely worded 58 page decision, Mr. Chief Justice Neil Wittman of the Alberta Court of Queen`s Bench ruled in favour of the trustee in bankruptcy of Redwater Energy Corporation, a secured creditor of Alberta Treasury Branches (ATB Financial- was owed $5.072 million). The highly anticipated decision favoured creditors`rights over environmental regulation. According to Just...