AB Pol Econ

8Dec

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Uncategorized

Economic Outlook 2017

On 8th December 2016, the Economics Society of Northern Alberta hosted their annual 2017 economic Outlook conference. The Association pulled together a list of eminent economists, a political scientist, and keynote speaker the environmentalist Avi Lewis. This post will summarize presentations of some speakers with a subsequent post covering the remaining speakers. The first speaker was Dr. Avery Shenfeld, chief Economist of CIBC who provided a global outlook. Shenfeld observed that the “new normal” growth rate for western industrial economy is now 2% rather than 3%. In Europe he noted that the Greek crisis is not over and that there uncertainty concerning the restructuring of Italian banks. With respect to Brexit he acknowledged that UK- Europe trade is very significant and felt that the...

31Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Bankruptcies

Update on Land Lease Delinquencies

Originally posted 31 October 2016 Back in July, we highlighted a growing concern among farmers who were not receiving lease payments on a timely basis from oil and gas explorers in exchange for access to rural properties. Alberta's Surface Rights Board adjudicates between farmers and the oil and gas community. As the tables below illustrate, this board handles thousands of cases every year. The Board is a creature of Provincial Legislature under the Surface Rights Act a relatively small statute consisting of 41 sections (32 pages). Predecessor statutes include the 1947 Right of Entry Arbitration Act, The Right of Entry Arbitration Act, 1952, the 1972 Surface Rights Act, the 1942 Water, Gas, Electric and Telephone Companies Act, the 1961 Expropriation Procedure Act, and the 1974 E...

14Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Capital Spending

Capital spending

For the Notley government, infrastructure spending has been a distinctive marker of its fiscal choices. Support from a report last year by former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge along with the Trudeau government's big infrastructure program has continued a ten year spell of high public spending on capital commenced by their Tory predecessors. (more…)

11Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Salaries at Provincial Agencies

Originally published 11 October 2016 Background Controversy continues to swirl around salary levels at Alberta's agencies, boards, and commissions (ABCs). An article in The Globe and Mail by Justin Giovannetti two weeks ago incorrectly identified the salary of the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Workers' Compensation Board as the highest of provincial ABC executives. A tabulation by Albertarecessionwatch.com of the largest and most critical ABCs in the financial, health, energy, and post-secondary sectors shows that WCB CEO Guy Kerr ranks 20th among his ABC colleagues. (more…)

3Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

Boom and Bust Economy- Opinion/Research

Originally posted 3 October 2017 On 14 September, I had the privilege to present an economic overview to members of the Municipal Government Board, municipal assessment review boards and the Surface Rights Board. I was given considerable latitude in addressing the current and future economic conditions that assessment appeal boards faced. Ratepayers (commercial, industrial, residential) have the ability to object to annual assessments and significant sums of money can be at stake over disputes about zoning and the use of property, including buildings and machinery. (more…)

19Sep

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Budget 2017 signals- Opinion and Questions

The content of the article from the Edmonton Journal of 19 September 2016 is likely to be repeated many times over the coming months before next Spring's 2017 budget. The article quotes the Health Minister and Deputy Premier speaking with addictions' treatment officers. Her choice of words is most interesting: "I have a deficit and the price of oil is a fraction of what we're seeing it at." The use of "I" suggests that senior cabinet members may now recognize that having been in office for nearly 18 months, they will be held accountable for deficits and not the former Progressive Conservative government. They now have to cope with a fiscal reality that perhaps they (and their advisers) hoped would not persist. As the Minister expressed to this audience, she would "like to provide far ...

Alberta’s economy from a bank(s)’ perspective

17Sep

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Uncategorized

Alberta’s economy from a bank(s)’ perspective

It is difficult for Alberta residents not to be caught up in the "challenges" facing our currently depressed economy. Whether you are a social worker addressing crises stemming from the wildfires or recent unemployment of clients to a young entrepreneur struggling to make inroads into craft brewing, it is difficult to step outside one's immediate "space-time continuum." So this column is going to take the quarterly reports from seven banks' most recent quarterly reports (31 July 2016), summarizing the comments about "Alberta," "energy," and "oil and gas." One of the banks is Canadian Western Bank and it is not surprising that considerably more attention was paid to these terms than by the Big 6 banks. For those readers wishing more detail, the link below extracts the key sections of the...

The Matter of "free, prior and informed consent"

12Sep

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Energy, Environment

The Matter of "free, prior and informed consent"

Shawn McCarthy's column of 16 September discussed the question of what "consent" means to First Nations' communities through which proposed pipelines run through. In Alberta, the New Democrat government agreed to be bound by the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. The federal government also agreed to be so bound after taking office from the Conservative government last October. The federal government has not yet officially agreed to the Declaration. (more…)

9Sep

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Uncategorized

Labour Relations

Two recent developments on the labour front suggest that the provincial government does not intend to reduce wages in the public sector...yet. Custodians at Edmonton Public Schools received a new three-year contract. The contract grants the 800 workers a 1.75 per cent increase effective 1 September 2016, a two per cent retroactive adjustment for 2015-16 and a $700 lump sum retroactive payment to September 2014. Last week, the provincial government concluded an agreement with the Alberta Medical Association. According to the government's news release, a "needs-based" Physician Resource Plan will place physicians where they are needed. The agreement also is expected to "improve financial sustainability, quality of care, and access." Moreover, a new compensation model will be developed...

5Sep

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget, Energy

Weak Land Tenure Sales Persist

Originally posted 6 September 2016 Sales of oil sands leases since 1 April, the start of the Province`s fiscal year have been weak. As the table below illustrates, except for the June sale, interest has been weak. Land sales remain important as a leading indicator of future energy investment. Public Sales Results- Oilsands Date Bonus Hectares $/HA 11-May 61,690.63 5,169.89 11.93 25-May 3,717.12 1,024.00 3.63 22-Jun 11,170,378.05 28,039.00 398.39 06-Jul 150,192.64 1,280.00 117.34 03-Aug 170,923.52 3,264.00 52.37 Totals 11,556,901.96 38,776.89 298.0358136 The charts following are taken from the Department of Energy`s webpage disclosing its Petroleum and Natural Gas Sales Statistics. The historical data prov...