AB Pol Econ

27Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Fiscal Policy

The Voldemort of Alberta Politics- a sales tax No one likes to pay tax, least of all residents of Alberta. The Progressive Conservative Government of Alberta had for years been successful in stifling debate on the need for alternative sources of revenue to offset declines in non-renewable resource revenue. In fact, all parties in Alberta are equally silent on this question. The Conference Board of Canada's Q32016Outlook on Alberta weighed into the sales tax fray in their June briefing on Alberta's fiscal situation. Their analysis, part of the Conference Board's periodic review of provincial government finances, offered a sober outlook for the province. The Board's analysts Daniel Fields and Alicia Macdonald, forecast Alberta's economy to come out of back to back negative annual growth r...

27Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Credit Ratings

Alberta's credit rating has been under pressure since before the NDP were elected in May 2015. While rating actions did not occur until later in 2015, provincial finances had been deteriorating since the financial crisis in 2007-08. Although oil prices recovered after the financial crisis, rising capital and operating expenditures, combined with a huge drop in royalty revenue, have considerably weakened the province's financial flexibility. In the most recent report, Moodys downgraded the province from Aaa to Aa1 because of " the province's growing and unconstrained debt burden, extended timeframe back to balance, weakened liquidity, and risks surrounding the success of the province's medium-term fiscal plan given the outlook for subdued growth." The report came just four days after the ...

27Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Rural

Land lease delinquencies The Alberta Surface Rights Board is reporting an four-fold increase in non-payments to rural landowners whose land (or portion thereof) is leased to oil companies.CBC Calgary reported that Gerald Hawranik, the Board chair, was predicting 1,600 to 2,000 complaints at the start of 2016 and is now predicting the number will be much higher and a $3 million compensation judged earlier to be sufficient will be exceeded substantially. (more…)

26Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Bill 19 -Reform of Agencies, Boards and Commissions Compensation Act

Opinion/Research On May 18th, Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Joe Ceci introduced Bill 19. Ceci stated that the "purpose of this legislation is to address consistency and fairness in executive compensation levels for the public agencies, boards, and commissions that are subject to the Alberta Public Agencies Governance Act." The tabling and passage of this Bill garnered virtually no attention in the media. And yet, this Bill promises to be one of the most fundamental pieces of legislation for the government in an session that features major initiatives on climate change, taxation, predatory lending, environmental monitoring, and law enforcement. (more…)

24Jun

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Opinion/Research

Opinion

Justin Giovannetti writes about how Alberta has changed since Notley's government assumed power. The key changes range from a substantial increase in taxes or "levies" as a carbon tax is introduced in January next year to relatively low cost initiatives such as changing labour laws and legislation addressing the pay-day loan industry. Many of these measures have re-balanced the equilibrium between the rights of workers and the power of employers.

21Jun

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Investment

Originally posted 21 June 2016 Investment in Alberta is highly cyclical due to the resource base of the oilsands located in the Fort McMurray (Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo) area. Since the federal and provincial governments agreed to a resource development framework in the late 1990s, tens of billions of dollars have been invested in both oilsands mining and in-situ facilities. Since 2005, one could argue that the whole Alberta economy has been driven by the investment boom in the Fort McMurray area as a number of large Canadian (CNRL, Suncor-PetroCanada, Nexen, Cenovus-Encana, Husky) and multi-national corporations (Exxon-Mobil, StatOil, Total, Shell) competed to exploit this resource base. (more…)

20Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Environment

Update Since the last post a great deal has happened in the provincial government's approach to climate. The recognition that climate change is a serious financial and economic matter, not just "political" was provided by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane in a speech a couple weeks ago in Montreal. Lane observed: climate change itself and actions to address it will have material and pervasive effects on Canada’s economy and financial system. While many of these will play out over many decades, I will argue that they are already starting to become important. So, the Bank needs to consider these effects as we deliver on our mandate to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. (more…)

20Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Education, Uncategorized

Education

Originally posted 20 June 2016 As the provincial budget approaches, various education lobby groups are seeking to influence (at the last minute since all key decisions have been made by now - 8 March 2017) the government to support their sector's priorities. The articles below highlight the desire of private schools to head off government veering to de-fund home-schooling and private charter schools and to place the money into public education. Another perennial request is funding for new schools. (more…)

17Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Residential, Uncategorized

Residential

Originally posted 17 June 2016 Housing prices remain relatively stable despite significant job losses. New housing permits have fallen but not precipitously which is surprising given the ongoing job losses. Below is a chart that shows the number of building permits issued for Alberta dwellings since 1970. This monthly chart shows seasonal volatility. The plunge in permits from the late 1980s to the early 2000s is evident as well as the booms in the early 1970s and the early 2000s. (more…)

13Jun

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Politics

My time at Alberta NDP convention

On June 10-12, I attended my very first party convention in Calgary witnessing an historic meeting after over 110 years of right leaning governments. This is not to say that during some mandates, the governing party introduced radical legislation- for instance during the early mandates of the United Farmers of Alberta (1921-1935), Social Credit (1935-1971), and the Progressive Conservatives (1971-2015). All political parties in government become more conservative over time- seemingly more interested in remaining in power than shaking the boat. My initial impressions at the event were as follows: First the convention was well organized and classy (at the Hyatt Regency no less!). And unlike the NDP convention in Edmonton held earlier this year, controversy was avoided. Second, as Don Brai...