AB Pol Econ

9Jan

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Residential

Bringing it all back home Part 3

Part 3 Mortgage and Credit availability Next we turn to the financial aspects of the housing markets. If borrowers are experiencing difficulties in meeting their monthly (or weekly) payments, normally they will approach the creditor and seek to negotiate a type of forbearance agreement. This can take many forms such as extending the amortization period or increasing the principal of the loan through an equity take out in order to catch up with interest payments (to pay for daily expenses or to pay down more expensive debt such as credit cards). As the following Chart shows, the chartered banks in Alberta have not slowed down their mortgage (more…)

4Jan

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Real Estate

Bringing it all back home- Part 2

Part 2- Sources of Demand Oil and Gas Economy A key to understanding an economy’s capacity and resilience to sustain demand for a basic “commodity” such as housing is to begin with the key sources of export earnings that Alberta, as an economic unit, receive to support payments for products and services produced inside and outside Alberta. (more…)

3Jan

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Residential

Bringing it all back home

Throughout 2016, there has been a nagging question mark at the back of my mind about the state of Alberta’s residential real estate market. Why has this market held up so well when the economy has suffered two years of recession? After 18 months of economic contraction, residential real estate has not cratered and housing starts, though at reduced levels, are still fairly strong at about 2,000 units per month. This series investigates firstly whether there is a “crisis” in the residential market, secondly what are the drivers of residential prices; thirdly the financial sources of supply for the housing market, and finally the prospects for 2017. (more…)

13Dec

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research

Economic Diversification

In October, I wrote a column for Alberta Council of Technologies concerning diversification. [Tech Notes] In posts covering the Economic Outlook 2017 put on by the Economics Society of Northern Alberta, a summary of the panel on economic diversification was provided. The debate, in essence, pitted Gil McGowan who supports more government intervention to foster more value-added, commodity-based production with economist Trevor Tombe and Canada West Foundation CEO, Martha Hall Findlay, who judge that the market is the best to allocate capital. My column sketched the "inglorious history" of economic diversification in this province. The Don Getty years were perhaps the height of poor investments but Peter Lougheed's Heritage Fund investments in Prince Rupert, Vencap Equities, and support ...

9Dec

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Economic Data

Economic Outlook 2017

At the 2017 Economics Society of Northern Alberta Outlook conference held on 8 December at the Chateau Lacombe, Associate Professor of Political Science, Greg Anderson spoke to the possible impact on Alberta from the election of Donald Trump. (Anderson is a specialist in U.S.-Canadian relations.) His talk "The (Dis)United States of America and POTUS 2016"- placed the election results in the broader context of global events such as the Brexit vote and immigration crisis in Europe. (POTUS stands for President of the United States.) In observing that filmmaker Michael Moore predicted Trump's victory in Michigan (a state that Moore is quite familiar with), Anderson recounted the shock and paralysis of the Clinton camp on election night. Trump was much better at tapping into the grim economi...

8Dec

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Uncategorized

Economic Outlook 2017

On 8th December 2016, the Economics Society of Northern Alberta hosted their annual 2017 economic Outlook conference. The Association pulled together a list of eminent economists, a political scientist, and keynote speaker the environmentalist Avi Lewis. This post will summarize presentations of some speakers with a subsequent post covering the remaining speakers. The first speaker was Dr. Avery Shenfeld, chief Economist of CIBC who provided a global outlook. Shenfeld observed that the “new normal” growth rate for western industrial economy is now 2% rather than 3%. In Europe he noted that the Greek crisis is not over and that there uncertainty concerning the restructuring of Italian banks. With respect to Brexit he acknowledged that UK- Europe trade is very significant and felt that the...

31Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Bankruptcies

Update on Land Lease Delinquencies

Originally posted 31 October 2016 Back in July, we highlighted a growing concern among farmers who were not receiving lease payments on a timely basis from oil and gas explorers in exchange for access to rural properties. Alberta's Surface Rights Board adjudicates between farmers and the oil and gas community. As the tables below illustrate, this board handles thousands of cases every year. The Board is a creature of Provincial Legislature under the Surface Rights Act a relatively small statute consisting of 41 sections (32 pages). Predecessor statutes include the 1947 Right of Entry Arbitration Act, The Right of Entry Arbitration Act, 1952, the 1972 Surface Rights Act, the 1942 Water, Gas, Electric and Telephone Companies Act, the 1961 Expropriation Procedure Act, and the 1974 E...

14Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Capital Spending

Capital spending

For the Notley government, infrastructure spending has been a distinctive marker of its fiscal choices. Support from a report last year by former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge along with the Trudeau government's big infrastructure program has continued a ten year spell of high public spending on capital commenced by their Tory predecessors. (more…)

11Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Salaries at Provincial Agencies

Originally published 11 October 2016 Background Controversy continues to swirl around salary levels at Alberta's agencies, boards, and commissions (ABCs). An article in The Globe and Mail by Justin Giovannetti two weeks ago incorrectly identified the salary of the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Workers' Compensation Board as the highest of provincial ABC executives. A tabulation by Albertarecessionwatch.com of the largest and most critical ABCs in the financial, health, energy, and post-secondary sectors shows that WCB CEO Guy Kerr ranks 20th among his ABC colleagues. (more…)

3Oct

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

Boom and Bust Economy- Opinion/Research

Originally posted 3 October 2017 On 14 September, I had the privilege to present an economic overview to members of the Municipal Government Board, municipal assessment review boards and the Surface Rights Board. I was given considerable latitude in addressing the current and future economic conditions that assessment appeal boards faced. Ratepayers (commercial, industrial, residential) have the ability to object to annual assessments and significant sums of money can be at stake over disputes about zoning and the use of property, including buildings and machinery. (more…)