AB Pol Econ

17Apr

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Narrowing the playing field

Alberta Energy Regulator advertises for Hearing Commissioners In the 15 April edition of the Edmonton Journal an ad appeared seeking interested individuals to apply for a position as a Hearing Commissioner with the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). (more…)

"Much ado about nothing"- ‘Bolton Report’

20Mar

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Agencies

"Much ado about nothing"- ‘Bolton Report’

Originally published 20 March 2017 Preface This is a story about a government announcement in the early days of the Prentice administration that I took very seriously. (As it turns out I shouldn't have.) Since the Report arising from the announcement was never released, I undertook to bring it to the light of day through the access to information process. It took ten months. The tale below summarizes the background to the announcement; the enjoyable and lengthy process to receive a copy of the Report; and summary of the report; and my comments on the contents of the Report and recommendations An earlier column can be found at The Bolton Committee. (more…)

18Mar

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Budget 2017- Opinion

Overview Joe Ceci's 2017 budget could be characterized as a "steady as she goes" budget. The citizens of Alberta will be paying for this budget, and many previous budgets, with higher taxes and higher debt service costs for years, if not decades, to come. There are many observers who feel the budget was "ok" since programs and capital spending are not disturbed. There are also many Albertans who do not believe using the credit card to support spending is the right way forward. One half of Mr. Ceci's address spoke of the capital spending and repair and maintenance undertaken by the Government. Virtually no corner of the province escaped mention: a courthouse for Red Deer a new hospital for South Edmonton Highway construction for Fort Saskatchewan Deerfoot Trail in Calgary an...

11Mar

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Agencies

Baby steps at AIMCo board

Originally 11 March 2017 Three weeks ago an inconspicuous Order-in Council 39/2017 was quietly passed to repeal two sections of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation Regulation. The deletion of sections 5 and 6 are highly significant as the sections assured a measure of independence for the corporation's management and board from the government. The government's decision is positive and courageous for the reasons explored below. (more…)

23Feb

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Third Quarter Fiscal Update

Green shoots- still clouds on horizon Treasury Board President and Finance Minister, Joe Ceci released the Government of Alberta's Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement on Thursday 23 February 2017. Overall the fiscal picture has not changed very much over the past three months. The 2017-18 budget is expected to be in March and will likely reflect some tweaks to the fiscal 2017 numbers published today. There is definitely some more optimism in Alberta today as oil prices have stabilized, pipeline approvals announced, and Fort McMurray rebuilds. Possibly the worst is behind the economy but there is little reason to be complacent. Today Mr. Ceci announced the passage of an Order in Council authorizing the borrowing of up to $14 billion. He immediately cautioned that this appro...

Opening Comments – Alberta’s Recent Economic Transition to FMI Seminar- Alberta’s Economic Horizon, Sutton Place Hotel, Edmonton, Thursday 9 February 2017

11Feb

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Opinion/Research

Opening Comments – Alberta’s Recent Economic Transition to FMI Seminar- Alberta’s Economic Horizon, Sutton Place Hotel, Edmonton, Thursday 9 February 2017

My presentation is concerned with the past five to ten years with a focus on 2012 to 2016. We first begin with the current biggest source of investment and income… This ten-year period shows the magnitude of the oil price fall in real terms since the start of the financial crisis –the dark shaded area. In real terms we are only back to the low point coming out of the financial crisis of 2007-09. [Chart from http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart] I wanted to illustrate the very real consequences of the material decline of oil prices on this and the next slide. The breadth of the recession has also touched Stampede parties hosted which have been scaled back as revenue dropped in the oil and gas sector. An important impact has been the difficult adjustments in t...

25Jan

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Energy

The Donald makes good

Originally posted 25 January 2017 The day before Robbie Burns Day was an especially propitious day for executives at TransCanada Corporation. Two working days into office and the new U.S. President has "delivered" on the promise to revive the Keystone XL pipeline from Hardisty Alberta to Steele City on the border of Nebraska and Kansas. The decision is subject to terms being negotiated with the proponents, presumably to achieve some return to the U.S. Treasury and to U.S. construction and factory workers. Several commentators have noted this negotiation may be similar to the "shake-down" orchestrated by Premier Christy Clark with the Trudeau government's approval of the Kinder-Morgan TransMountain pipeline. (more…)

18Jan

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Residential

Bringing it all back Home- Prospects

Originally posted 18 January 2017 Part 4- Prospects It is always difficult predicting the future at the best of times. In the world of Donald Trump with the high degree of uncertainty about trade agreements, prognostications are even more precarious. In the previous three parts we have studied the effects of employment, corporate and personal income, and mortgage financing on the residential market. Data shows that the market is holding up exceptionally well under the current circumstances. (more…)

10Jan

By albertarecessionwatchNo Comments

Budget

Not a great start to Budget 2017

Opinion On 9 January 2017 at 11:23 a.m. I received an email from the Government of Alberta with a press release entitled "Albertans asked for input into Budget 2017" [News Release]. Puzzled by the contradiction between the desirability of open public consultation on matters of great public interest and these closed door meetings, I hopefully contacted Mike Brown, the Press Secretary for Treasury Board President Joe Ceci, at 12:12 p.m.to learn where the Edmonton event was to be held. As veteran political columnist, Graham Thomson, reported in today's Edmonton Journal (NDP's public consultations look more like public relations, 10 January 2017) he was able to get a response from Brown, albeit unsatisfactorily, on the secret location of the meeting. At the time of writing (6:30 p.m. 11 J...

9Jan

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Residential

Bringing it all back home Part 3

Part 3 Mortgage and Credit availability Next we turn to the financial aspects of the housing markets. If borrowers are experiencing difficulties in meeting their monthly (or weekly) payments, normally they will approach the creditor and seek to negotiate a type of forbearance agreement. This can take many forms such as extending the amortization period or increasing the principal of the loan through an equity take out in order to catch up with interest payments (to pay for daily expenses or to pay down more expensive debt such as credit cards). As the following Chart shows, the chartered banks in Alberta have not slowed down their mortgage (more…)