AB Pol Econ

9Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget 2019- Analysis and Opinion

Genesis, analysis, investment imperative, rating agencies Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Trevor Toews was provided considerable advice as he prepared his October 2019 budget. The precursors included the NDP's "path to balance"- a Recovery built to Last, the UCP platform, Alberta Strong & Free, the report of the Blue Ribbon Panel (MacKinnon Report) and the Shadow Budget produced by the C.D. Howe Institute. In this report, we look at how the Alberta budget compares with these other "suggestions" or "guideposts." Then we examine the "big gamble" that underlines the UCP budget- if they create the environment for investment, will it come? Finally, we ask how the rating agencies will evaluate the UCP's initial stewardship of Alberta's public finances. Genesis Unlike...

9Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Populism and its Discontents-

2019 Parkland Institute Conference Between November 15 and 17, the annual Parkland Conference is taking place at the University of Alberta. The conference examines the currents of populism evident in Canada and abroad. Keynote speakers include Professor of Philosophy (University of Toronto) Mark Kingwell and Erika Shaker of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. For for more information on sessions and other speakers including registration choices go to Parkland Institute.

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Politics

Sales Tax for Alberta?

Recently there has been a renewed interest in a sales tax for Alberta. Grant Bishop of the C.D. Howe Institute writing a "Shadow Budget" for Alberta, has suggested the introduction of a sales tax after the budget is balanced through spending cuts. In a recent report from the Parkland Institute, Cutting Through the Blue Ribbon, authors Bob Ascah, Trevor Harrison, and Richard Mueller conclude that a provincial sales tax, harmonized with the federal Goods and Services Tax, is an appropriate fiscal measure to achieve fiscal sustainability. SUch a revenue measure would directly address Alberta's chronic vulnerability to fluctuating commodity prices. Then in an October 25th piece in The Globe and Mail, Max Fawcett argues that Jason Kenney, like Richard Nixon going to China, is uniquely placed ...

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Let’s Just Take a Deep Breath- Opinion

Our political leaders, both provincial and federal, need to take a deep breath. Premiers Kenny and Moe specifically need to reset their expectations after the rather surprising election victory by Trudeau built on the wings of Canada’s unfair “first-past-the-post” system. Yes Alberta, and to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan, have endured over four years of lousy economic performance. However, unemployment increases and declining investment are due mainly to our economy’s being hostage to internationally determined oil and gas prices, not Ottawa’s policies. Political leaders in this province have talked for decades about “getting off the energy roller coaster.” Common lore – “give us another oil boom and we promise not to piss it away again” has not seemed to penetrate our political leaders’...

Critical Review of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances (MacKinnon Report)

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances

Critical Review of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances (MacKinnon Report)

This analysis of the Blue-Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances: Report and Recommendations (McKinnon report) includes a description of the construction of the panel- its membership, its mandate, process, and its members’ experience and predispositions. In the second part of the paper, I describe how the construction of the panel predetermined its recommendations. And finally, using textual analysis, I examine the basic assumptions used by the Report’s authors to construct their interpretation of how to improve the provincial government’s fiscal standing. Composition of Panel On 7 May, three weeks after the election of the UCP, Premier Kenney and Travis Toews, Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance announced the formation of the Blue-Ribbon panel. As most commentators quickly reali...

Environmental liabilities… will not go away

26Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Environment, Financial Institutions, Politics

Environmental liabilities… will not go away

Alberta Liabilities Disclosure Project (ALDP) On 5 April, the ALDP held a news conference to raise awareness about the scope and scale of the orphan well issue in the Province of Alberta. According to its website, the ALDP "is an independent and non-partisan initiative pushing for accurate and transparent government level data pertaining to Alberta's oil and gas liabilities." This initiative, of which I am a participant, is aimed at making oil and gas environmental liabilities an issue during the recent provincial election. While media outlets such as The Globe and Mail, National Observer and Postmedia shared information about the initiative, political parties -other than the Alberta party's David Khan and Dr. David Swann, did not click on the bait. Regan BoychukSource: National...

22Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Politics

Election 2019- Analysis (Part 1)

Highlights (Revised 25 April 2019) UCP dominant in rural Alberta, CalgarySecondary parties lose seatsKenney's vision relies on strong business backingRegulatory reform will have its challenges Alberta Government Logo Overview of Results Elections Alberta results to 19 April at 17 :14:34 shows 7,326 of 7,326 polls reporting. Political PartyVotes-SeatsPercentAlberta Party170,872 - 09.1%Alberta Independence Party13,481- 00.7%Liberal Party of Alberta18,457 -01.0%New Democratic Party615,428 -2432.7%Freedom Conservative Party9,856 -00.5%United Conservative Party1,030,560 - 6354.8%Alberta Advantage Party5,619- 00.3%Green Party of Alberta7,687-0 0.4% Source: https://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm Last Updated: April 19, 2019 - 17:14:34 The UCP received a ...

17Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Presentation to Edmonton IPACU- 17 April 2019

Below is a presentation given to the Institute of Public Administration of Canada's noon hour learning sessions. The presentation and speaking notes address, at a high level, basic elements of public finance administration and policy in Alberta.

16Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Election 2019: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Over the past three weeks, the two main parties and two smaller parties have released their full policy platforms or position statements. The following is a high level look at some of the policy proposals by highlighting good, bad, and "ugly" proposals. Animosity between 2 major parties Premier Rachel Notley It goes without saying that much of the campaign has featured personality politics with Rachel Notley spending an inordinate amount of time questioning Jason Kenney's character. At the time of writing, this tactic has not appeared to have improved her party's chances of retaining office. One of the most evident features of this attack is that it has demonstrated significant weaknesses in her party's capacity to articulate visionary policies. The Good The Alberta...

Journey to Obsession -A Sales Tax for Alberta (Part 2)

31Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

Journey to Obsession -A Sales Tax for Alberta (Part 2)

The following is a draft of the preface for the unnamed as yet book title about a sales tax for Alberta- hopefully forthcoming in the summer of 2019. The following is a personal set of experiences related to the sales tax discussion that is not included in the forthcoming book. It’s the story of my interest, then obsession, about the rationale for Alberta adopting a sales tax.. NDP in office Then fast forward to the unexpected NDP victory on 5 May 2015. Premier Notley’s government focused initially on steadying the listing fiscal ship by engaging David Dodge, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada. Dodge provided a rationale for even higher infrastructure spending. The government also deliberately sought to stabilize the public service by pledging to maintain ad...