AB Pol Econ

Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980

22Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980

Updated 25 June 2020 One of the most curious recommendations in the Fair Deal Report is section III which encourages “telling Alberta’s story.” This call to action urges the sharing of "common messages". The authors suggest that “transparent” civic society groups like municipalities, unions, companies, advocacy groups, non-profits and "indeed, every citizen” have a "critical and essential voice" to tell Alberta’s story. However, this section includes the invocation to tell a story about Alberta’s “leading practices in the energy, agriculture, and forestry sectors and the full cost that Alberta’s failure would have on benefits currently shared by the country as a whole.” Critics would charge that the panel was pandering to enduring grievances accentuated by the volatile roller- coaster ...

15Jun

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Agencies, ATB, Uncategorized

ATB Financial: how results compare

CAUTION: Writing this blog has been the most challenging undertaking since I began Albertarecessionwatch.com (now Abpolecon.ca) four years ago. Writing about a former employer and one of the "Crown jewels" of Alberta's public sector and knowing so many former colleagues still working at ATB creates a dilemma when examining critically this institution's financial condition. ATB's financial condition should be of interest to all Albertans who have a stake in the success, or failure, of this venerable institution. This post has been frustrating to write because there is so much information available on banking institutions used to compare ATB's performance. The ocean of financial information has so many layers built up over years by both internal organizational dynamics as well as external r...

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

13Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...

1Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB

ATB facing headwinds (Part 1)

Directors and Politics ATB Financial will have three new directors as it charts a challenging course forward. On 13 May, Jim Davidson, Andrew S. Fraser, and J. Robert Logan were quietly appointed to ATB's board effective 16 June 2020 for three- year terms. At the same time Wendy Henkelman (a director since 2014) and Mary Ellen Neilson (director since 2017) were re-appointed. No press release has been issued to date by either ATB or the Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance, although at ATB's virtual public annual meeting, the new directors were expected to be introduced. Given the surprising absence of public disclosure, the following disclosure is a well educated guess of who these new board members are. Jim DavidsonSource: https://oilandgascouncil.com/event-speakers/...

25May

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman Papers

Alberta's Contribution to Confederation circa 1980 In August 1980, Alberta intergovernmental relations were heating up as the earlier Mellon memo attested to. The National Energy Program was about two months away from release, a release that would fuel the flames of western separatism. Concerns were festering in Alberta about the cost-benefits of remaining in Confederation. In the Briefing Note below, authored by Treasury officials in the Fiscal Policy and Economic Analysis Division documented the inflows and outflows to and from the federal Treasury over a 16-year period. The Table below summarizes two tables from the paper- the cumulative totals for provinces and a combined B.C., Yukon, and North West Territories and the discounted cumulative totals. The information was derived...

“A National Energy Program”- Hyndman papers

17May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental

“A National Energy Program”- Hyndman papers

The Provincial Archives of Alberta slumbers in obscurity, but the work of its archivists is essential to the conservation and preservation of Alberta's rich social and political history. Lou Hyndman served with Peter Lougheed's ministry from 1971 to 1985 when he returned to the private sector. Hyndman served in many key cabinet positions, including Education, Intergovernmental Affairs, and Treasury. He donated over 100 boxes of records from his time in the provincial government. In this extract, the Deputy Minister of Energy- Energy Resources, Dr. Barry Mellon advises his minister, the Honourable Merv Leitch about impending storm clouds circling over Alberta's energy sector. This revealing memorandum was written six months after Pierre Trudeau won a majority election on 18 Febru...

9May

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Bankruptcies, Energy, Environment, Loan Losses

Follow the Money- if you can

Updated 13 May 2020 and 4 August 2020 In this post, I return to the receivership of Trident Exploration and the various "legal fictions" used including: Trident Limited Partnership, Trident Exploration (Alberta) Corp., Trident Exploration (Aurora) Limited Partnership I, Trident Exploration (2006) Limited Partnership I, and Fenergy Corp. Trident was a debtor to two provincial agencies: ATB Financial (ATB) and Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Creditors Trident was placed into receivership in May of 2019 and attracted considerable attention because of the large number of unproductive wells and its vast reclamation obligations. The 177 page affidavit of Yvette Kennedy, Chief Administrative Officer of the Town of Stettler initiated the receivership process. AIMCo and A...

2May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

AIMCo faces first major test- Analysis and Opinion

Updated 3 May 2020, 4 May 2020, 18 May 2020 AIMCo’s board and management are facing troubling questions about how it has conducted its investment management strategy. In 2016, the Institute for Public Economics published a paper I wrote that examined the success of the corporatization project. Prior to 2008, Alberta Investment Management, a division of the province's Finance department, provided investment management services to provincial public sector pension plans, to provincial agencies, and to the provincial government. The paper was a preliminary assessment on how the new organization delivered on the promise made by previous Finance Ministers: namely, the organization would deliver returns in excess of those achieved by the previous governmental organization. ...

24Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

“A Distrust of Everything”- Opinion

In 1982, I interviewed Nigel Gunn, who at that time was the Honorary Chairman of Bell Gouinlock, a well- respected boutique investment dealer specializing in municipal debt. My dissertation (Politics and Public Debt) is about federal public debt management from the 1920s to the 1950s. The one critical point Gunn made in the interview that I will never forget was his statement that when the United Kingdom Treasury abandoned gold in September 1931, "this lead to a distrust of everything." A similar phrase was heard during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but with Ben Bernanke to the rescue- a student of history- the finger was put in the dike. Here we are again at another financial reckoning. At the present time, our Bank of Canada is following a conventional, yet extraordinary pat...

Federal Energy Program Finally Announced- Analysis/Opinion

20Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Bankruptcies, Banks, Energy, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Federal Energy Program Finally Announced- Analysis/Opinion

Belated Announcement On Friday, 17 April, the anxiously awaited federal program to support the oil and gas industry was announced by Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan (pictured). Details were minimal despite weeks of waiting. As anticipated, much of the money was directed at orphan well clean up in Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. The amount- $1.75 billion was substantial and included $75 million for the offshore sector. In addition, $750 million was allocated to “create a new Emissions Reduction Fund to support workers and reduce emissions in Canada's oil and gas sector, with a focus on methane.” The announcement noted that the measure will maintain about 5,200 jobs in Alberta alone. In addition, loans would be provided through the Business Development Bank to qualifyin...