AB Pol Econ

16Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Demographics, Economic Data, Energy, Society

Some charts

Below are several charts which yield a number of economic insights about the Alberta economy. Interprovincial migration The first chart illustrates the impact of interprovincial migration - people coming to and leaving Alberta since 1961.The chart shows five distinct periods associated with boom and bust conditions in the oil and gas industry. Periods where blue is dominant are boom periods where Alberta was attracting thousands more in-migrants than those leaving the province. These are periods of growing employment and occasional labour shortages. Where the brown colour is dominant, these are quarters when outflow of people exceeded inflows. Employment The chart below shows total employment, all occupations, for the province of Alberta since 2006. Alberta employment grows steadily unti...

9Jan

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta’s Revenue Options: Presentation to Association of Retired University Professors, U of A

Presentation On Thursday, 6 January I was invited to make a presentation on what the province's revenue options were going into the next budget. Provincial budgets by law must be presented before the end of each February. The presentation generated a great deal of discussion which will be touched on below. The PDF of presentation can be found at the foot of this article. The purpose of the discussion was to stimulate an exchange of ideas concerning what future Alberta governments might do to raise more revenue. I began by defining what I saw as the problem. The first problem is the Alberta government's over-reliance on resource royalties to fund its spending. The second issue is that Alberta has not achieved a budgetary surplus without resource revenue since at least 1965. The first ch...

3Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Uncategorized

New Year’s Limerick

This Limerick comes courtesy of my colleague David Swann .... Enjoy ‘New Day's Lyric’ by Amanda Gorman May this be the day We come together. Mourning, we come to mend, Withered, we come to weather, Torn, we come to tend, Battered, we come to better. Tethered by this year of yearning, We are learning That though we weren't ready for this, We have been readied by it. Steadily we vow that no matter How we are weighed down, We must always pave a way forward. This hope is our door, our portal. Even if we never get back to normal, Someday we can venture beyond it, To leave the known and take the first steps. So let us not return to what was normal, But reach toward what is next. What was cursed, we will cure. What was plagued, we will prove pure. Where we tend to argue, we will try to agre...

31Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics, Rural

2021 Top Stories

Politics During 2021 Alberta’s political oxygen was consumed almost entirely with COVID-19- a topic Abpolecon.ca kept in the background. The third, fourth (Delta) and fifth (Omicron) waves rolled over the province and Kenney’s government was consistently found wanting. Not only was 2021 defined by the premier’s mishandling of COVID - the “best summer ever” but the NDP consistently out fund-raised the UCP. On top of these failures was a sexual harassment suit, an ill-timed UCP Christmas reception, and 22 constituency associations demanding the leadership review be bumped up to March (the effort was denied by the party Executive). By September Kenney was regarded as a “dead man walking.” In December, former Wildrose leader and UCP leadership contestant Brian Jean resurfaced as UCP candidat...

24Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Energy, Opinion/Research

The Allan Inquiry

Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage. had the privilege, on behalf of Mr. Kenney’s government, to release the much delayed and controversial report of the public inquiry into anti-energy campaigns (Allan Report). As readers are aware this much maligned inquiry run by J. Stephens Allan was $1-million over budget and delayed several times. Besides the political controversies it stirred, its mandate was assailed by Amnesty International Canada as it “feeds into a worsening climate of hostility towards human rights defenders — particularly Indigenous, women and environmental human rights defenders — exposing them to intimidation and threats, including threats of violence,” This stirred a condescending and lengthy response from Jason Kenney (published in its entirety in the National Post) wh...

17Dec

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

Can AIMCo be Fixed? (2)- Kenney redefines the pension bargain

Updated 23 December 2021 Hear interview between Bob Ascah and Shaye Ganam here. Read the 21 December 2021 Edmonton Journal opinion piece by Bob Ascah. Premier Kenney made some new policy pronouncements about the Alberta government's liability with respect to public sector pensions at yesterday's Omicron press conference. His response to a Globe and Mail reporter's question (minute 47) must be a shock to Finance Minister Toews' and belies over 20-years of government policy to disengage Alberta taxpayers' liability from the unfunded liabilities for public sector pensions. If not walked back, it may have some influence over the province's credit rating. James Keller The Globe and Mail. This is going way, way off topic. The Parkland Institute put out a report today on AIMCo with a lo...

16Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment

Can AIMCo be Fixed?

On Wednesday, the Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta released my study Can AIMCo be Fixed? Key findings and recommendations of the study were: AIMCo is one of the most significant provincial agencies in Alberta- its importance is central to the financial security of nearly 500,000 people Since a pension is intended to provide financial security in retirement- any behavior by government, the asset manager or pension boards which undermines security or creates uncertainty erodes trust which is foundational to the pension bargain. AIMCo’s investment performance has, since its inception, been mediocre and recent poor returns contributes to the erosion of the trust. The ownership structure of AIMCo must be changed- AIMCo’s sole owner today is the Government of Alberta even thoug...

12Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Employment, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman papers- women’s equality and capital budgeting

In the first excerpt Peter Lougheed's Social Planning Committee supported Canada's ascension to a United Nations Convention on eliminating discrimination against women. As outlined in the short Committee Committee recommendation the Alberta government committed itself legislative measures designed to implement the concept of equal pay for work of equal value. Equal Pay CABINET COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATION CABINET COMMITTEE: SOCIAL PLANNING DATE OF CONSIDERATION: October 7, 1981 SUBJECT: UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON ELIMINATING OF DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN RECOMMENDATION: This committee RECOMMENDED that the Minister of Labour inform the Federal Government of the support of the Alberta Government respecting...

6Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Opinion/Research

Bon Temps Rouler – Let the good times roll!

Opinion Let the Good Times Roll -seemed to be the message from Minister Toews as he crowed Tuesday about the huge revenue boost coming in. In summary- "the economic recovery plan is working." (Here is the link to the press conference and Second Quarter Update for 2021-22.) The job creation tax cut is working. The economy is growing and diversifying. Toews as MLA for Grande Prairie Wapiti highlighted the $2.5-billion (the Northern Petrochemical project) as well as the Amazon Web Services commitment to the Calgary Area. Personal income tax and corporate income tax revenues are up but nothing like non-renewable resource revenues that have cracked a decade high (table below). The driving force was the bitumen producers who are bringing in a five-fold increase from what was budgeted. This tur...

15Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan appears to be taking off

The past ten-days has seen a flurry of announcements from Premier Kenney, his Jobs, Economy and Innovation minister Doug Schweitzer, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity- Dale Nally, and Finance Minister Travis Toews. Kenney, in all these announcements, was centre stage and answering inquiries from the media. Hydrogen Roadmap The first announcement on 6 November was the unveiling of a hydrogen strategy. Hydrogen, especially “blue hydrogen,” is now seen as having the potential of an oilsands-like boom. According to Kenney: “With a global market estimated to be worth $2.5 trillion a year by 2050, hydrogen could be Alberta’s next great energy opportunity. Alberta has been a global leader in responsible energy production for decades, and now we’re ready to apply that leadership t...