AB Pol Econ

17Dec

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

Can AIMCo be Fixed? (2)- Kenney redefines the pension bargain

Updated 23 December 2021 Hear interview between Bob Ascah and Shaye Ganam here. Read the 21 December 2021 Edmonton Journal opinion piece by Bob Ascah. Premier Kenney made some new policy pronouncements about the Alberta government's liability with respect to public sector pensions at yesterday's Omicron press conference. His response to a Globe and Mail reporter's question (minute 47) must be a shock to Finance Minister Toews' and belies over 20-years of government policy to disengage Alberta taxpayers' liability from the unfunded liabilities for public sector pensions. If not walked back, it may have some influence over the province's credit rating. James Keller The Globe and Mail. This is going way, way off topic. The Parkland Institute put out a report today on AIMCo with a lo...

16Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment

Can AIMCo be Fixed?

On Wednesday, the Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta released my study Can AIMCo be Fixed? Key findings and recommendations of the study were: AIMCo is one of the most significant provincial agencies in Alberta- its importance is central to the financial security of nearly 500,000 people Since a pension is intended to provide financial security in retirement- any behavior by government, the asset manager or pension boards which undermines security or creates uncertainty erodes trust which is foundational to the pension bargain. AIMCo’s investment performance has, since its inception, been mediocre and recent poor returns contributes to the erosion of the trust. The ownership structure of AIMCo must be changed- AIMCo’s sole owner today is the Government of Alberta even thoug...

12Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Employment, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman papers- women’s equality and capital budgeting

In the first excerpt Peter Lougheed's Social Planning Committee supported Canada's ascension to a United Nations Convention on eliminating discrimination against women. As outlined in the short Committee Committee recommendation the Alberta government committed itself legislative measures designed to implement the concept of equal pay for work of equal value. Equal Pay CABINET COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATION CABINET COMMITTEE: SOCIAL PLANNING DATE OF CONSIDERATION: October 7, 1981 SUBJECT: UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON ELIMINATING OF DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN RECOMMENDATION: This committee RECOMMENDED that the Minister of Labour inform the Federal Government of the support of the Alberta Government respecting...

6Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Opinion/Research

Bon Temps Rouler – Let the good times roll!

Opinion Let the Good Times Roll -seemed to be the message from Minister Toews as he crowed Tuesday about the huge revenue boost coming in. In summary- "the economic recovery plan is working." (Here is the link to the press conference and Second Quarter Update for 2021-22.) The job creation tax cut is working. The economy is growing and diversifying. Toews as MLA for Grande Prairie Wapiti highlighted the $2.5-billion (the Northern Petrochemical project) as well as the Amazon Web Services commitment to the Calgary Area. Personal income tax and corporate income tax revenues are up but nothing like non-renewable resource revenues that have cracked a decade high (table below). The driving force was the bitumen producers who are bringing in a five-fold increase from what was budgeted. This tur...

15Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan appears to be taking off

The past ten-days has seen a flurry of announcements from Premier Kenney, his Jobs, Economy and Innovation minister Doug Schweitzer, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity- Dale Nally, and Finance Minister Travis Toews. Kenney, in all these announcements, was centre stage and answering inquiries from the media. Hydrogen Roadmap The first announcement on 6 November was the unveiling of a hydrogen strategy. Hydrogen, especially “blue hydrogen,” is now seen as having the potential of an oilsands-like boom. According to Kenney: “With a global market estimated to be worth $2.5 trillion a year by 2050, hydrogen could be Alberta’s next great energy opportunity. Alberta has been a global leader in responsible energy production for decades, and now we’re ready to apply that leadership t...

1Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research

Captive insurance- Why the Interest Now?

The Pitch On Wednesday, 27 October Finance Minister Travis introduced Bill 76 the Captive Insurance Companies Act. The accompanying press release noted the Bill would be "an alternative to the traditional insurance market to help relieve cost and availability pressures on Alberta businesses." A captive insurance company could be owned by "industrial, commercial or financial entity that can offer services when traditional insurers are unable to provide necessary coverage." The release went on to note that "challenges with global insurance supply" are making it difficult for commercial entities to find adequate insurance at reasonable prices." The creation of a captive insurer would allow a company to insure its own risks or members of an association or industry group. These entities would h...

10Oct

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Employment, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research

Dow- a victory for Kenney (of sorts)

On Wednesday 6 October a joyful Premier Kenney announced the biggest hit of his economic recovery plan with Midland, Michigan-headquartered Dow Chemicals committing to a huge petrochemical investment beside its existing Fort Saskatchewan facility. The full text is worthy to cite as it highlights Kenney's possible rising from "political dead man walking" status. The message and excitement contained within was worthy of a crow's proud call. “Today Dow announced what could become the largest investment in the Alberta economy in more than a decade. This is a huge win for job creation, economic growth and Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan. If this project receives regulatory approval and a positive final investment decision, it will lead to a multibillion-dollar investment in our economy a...

29Sep

By Bob Ascah4 Comments

Demographics, Government Finances, Intergovernmental

What would Withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan Mean to Albertans?

By Ellen Nygaard and Virendra Gupta, Edmonton, AB, October 2021 The United Conservative Party (UCP) government, shortly after taking office in 2019, created a panel to consider whether Albertans are getting a “fair deal” as part of Canada. One of its assignments was whether Alberta should withdraw from Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and create its own pension plan, taking our portion of assets and liabilities from the Canada Pension Plan and running a pension plan for Alberta workers. The Panel recommended that the Government: “Develop a comprehensive plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan and withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan. Subsequently, provide Albertans the opportunity, via a referendum, to vote for or against withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan and creating the Alberta Pens...

26Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Pointless Vote- Opinion

Party National -Popular-Vote National- Seats Alberta- Popular Vote Alberta- Seats (2019) Liberals 32.4% 159 15.3% 2 (0) Conservatives 33.8 % 119 55.4% 30 (33) Bloc Quebecois 7.8 % 33 Not registered 0 Green Party 2.3% 2 0.9% 0 People's Party 5.1% 0 7.5 % 0 New Democrats 17.7% 25 19.0% 2 (1) Maverick Party 0.2% 0 1.3% 0 After 36 days of political blustering, Canadians learned "the morning after" there will be another minority government led by Justin Trudeau's Liberals. At 12 noon on 26 September MT Elections Canada shows the Liberals leading in 159 seats, the Conservatives at 119, Bloc at 33 seats, NDP at 25 and the Green Party with two candidates leading/elected. National Vote In the popular vote, the Tories lead at 33.7 per cent followed by the Liberals at 32.6...

25Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Uncategorized

Public Debt does matter

Earlier this year I was asked to contribute a paper on Alberta's public debt to the School of Public Policy's Alberta Futures project. My particular subject was "Alberta's Public Debt: Entering the Third Crisis." The questions I attempted to answer included: When has government borrowed too much?What will rapidly rising debt levels mean for Alberta taxpayers?What are the critical debt thresholds for the Province?What role will credit rating agencies play as they evaluate debt thresholds in relation to those in other provinces?What do higher debt levels mean for the Alberta Tax Advantage and Alberta’s long-term economic growth?What role does the federal government play in monitoring provincial deficits and debt levels? For the analysis, I went through over 100 years of Alberta's public ac...