AB Pol Econ

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How Book Launch

24Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How Book Launch

This past Thursday a book launch took place at the University Club to celebrate the publication of A Sales Tax for Alberta. Below are my speaking notes and pictures from this celebration. Speaking Notes- Book Launch Book launch A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How University Club, Edmonton 22 September 2022 My friends, the journey has not ended, it is just beginning! An inflated ego drove this project in the vain hope that we might convince one courageous politician to choose to take on this controversial project - a sales tax for Alberta. There are so many who helped this book across the goal line providing support and thoughtful feedback. First to my wife Linda who has been both a catalyst and huge support through what became a longer journey than expected. The initial germinatio...

10Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

First Quarter Update- Sunny update reveals some cracks

Jason Nixon, Treasury President and Minister of Finance Source: CTV News Edmonton However, there were several dark clouds covering the sun in the first quarter numbers that merit a mention. AIMCo has had another trying quarter like other investment managers Investment income is down $2.9-billion “due entirely to negative Heritage Fund and endowment fund income as financial markets deteriorated. These market losses could be reversed although with interest rates rising bond prices will continue to fall.” Hedging debt service costs hasn’t worked out very well Even though debt is declining significantly, debt servicing costs are rising because of debt swap costs. This is unusual because with rates at historic lows one would want to protect against rising rates by entering interest rate swap...

7Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Who owns the Big Four?

Profits earned by foreign direct investors on their assets in Canada were up $2.8 billion, led by the energy sector. Statistics Canada report on balance of payments. Statistics Canada Report on balance of international payments- 30 August 2022 In a column earlier this year, Gordon Laxer argued that Alberta’s inquiry into foreign influence should also have examined the foreign influence in the Canadian oilpatch. This post examines the ownership of the Big Four oilsands producers using current data from Thomson Reuters’ Refinitiv. In an earlier post first half financial results of these companies was compared against bank profits. As the tables indicate, the top investors are mostly North American with Canadian bank subsidiary iinvestment management firms holding a small portion of the sha...

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

How the Big Four compare to the Big Five (banks)

How the Big Four with Big Five (banks) In this post I compare the financial performance between the Big Four oilsands producers and the five biggest banks by examining their first half performance. For the Big Four the data is for thee first two quarters and first half ending 30 June 2022. Since the banks have a unique fiscal year end, I compare their first two quarters for the period ending 30 April 2022. The purpose is to inform readers of the relative economic, financial and political power of the two industries. This is achieved by presenting the following metrics Total Revenue Net Income after taxes Royalties payable (not relevant to banks) Taxes payable Taxes payable as per cent of net income Total equity or capital Net income as percent of total equity Share buybacks Dividends pa...

2Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Energy, Energy, Opinion/Research

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?

Updated 14 September 2022 The question of the influence of the oil industry on Alberta's political economy and democracy has been a longstanding question for Alberta political analysts. Kevin Taft's 2017 book Oil Deep State and Ian Urquhart's 2018 Costly Fix are classic reference texts. In the following article, reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) I use public finance data, corporate reports, and production data to estimate the impact of rising oil prices on the province's finances. As oilsands production has eclipsed conventional oil production and as ownership of the oilsands have increasingly become concentrated in four large companies, the implications for Alberta's tenuous democracy are obvious. This influence will be one of the great challenges...

30Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta and the UCP leadership race

Updated 16 August 2022 Well it didn't take too long for a conscientious staffer in Travis Toews' campaign to ferret out the 4 September opinion piece in the Edmonton Journal. In the article Smith setting forward what I think are credible views about Alberta's topsy-Turvey finances stated- Instead, he (Klein) bought off progressives by spending an excessive and unsustainable amount on public services and he bought off conservatives by lowering taxes below the cost of delivering programs. Now the public service screams holy hell at the mention of austerity and taxpayers say they aren’t prepared to pay a dime more. I’m here to tell you: Everyone — on both sides of the political spectrum — needs to suck it up. Alberta needs a three-step financial reset. Step 1: Liquidate the Heritage Fund...

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut: Theory and Reality

In 2023, a book on the Kenney government edited by Ricardo Acuna and Trevor Harrison will be released. I contribute one chapter on Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut examining critically whether this one-third cut to corporate income tax has had any positive impact on Alberta’s economy in terms of investment, jobs and wages. In this post (which is not part of the book chapter), I explore the theory behind the corporate income tax cuts. The critical element in my view is in assessing the nature of capital and labour in Alberta and in particular the energy sector, most notably the oilsands. Background In the UCP’s 2019 election platform, a key policy plank was to cut the corporate income tax from 12 per cent to 8 per cent over four years. Two economists- Jack M...

3Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Politics

Leadership

Friday was Canada's 155th year of existence as a sovereign state and tomorrow the United States of America celebrates "independence day"- it's 246th. James David Barber's classic The Presidential Character Predicting Performance in the White House first published in 1972 and updated in 1977 has been sitting on my bookshelf for decades unread. Today I pulled it out. The preface quoted below- written in American political science code- appealed to my accumulating concerns about our current political leaders but also apply as well to corporate and institutional leadership. The preface written three years before actor Ronald Reagan captured the White House is a prescient warning about the loss of meaning, the shallowness of our political and corporate class, and the public's percepti...

15Jun

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

IT’S FINALLY ARRIVED: A Sales Tax for Alberta: Why and How

Updated 8 July 2022 Interview with Shaye Ganam 630 CHED/ 770 CHQR https://omny.fm/shows/ched-mid-morning/a-sales-tax-for-alberta-why-and-how Read Ascah's opinion piece in the Edmonton Journal 8 July 2022. No this isn't official..yet... and this isn't a prediction or April Fool's Day joke. It's a book that promises to be a summer blockbuster! Sure, I'm the editor and contributor but there are six other academics, financiers, and journalists who weigh in on this controversial subject. Graham Thomson Mel McMillan Ergete Ferede Elizabeth Smythe Ian Glassford Ken McKenzie BUT THERE'S MORE: a foreword from Kevin Taft and Afterword of Trevor Harrison. The volume is the cumulation of a project begun in the fall of 2018, prior to the last provincial elect...

12Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Investment

Hyndman Papers: public vs. private investment and rising interest rates

Private sector investment has been the main driver of the Alberta economy over the past half century. Private investment in Alberta is highly correlated to secular movements in oil prices. Interest rates too play a major factor in driving economies. Low interest rates make investing in capital assets such as energy projects and housing more viable than when interest rates rise dramatically as they did in the early 1980s. The global economy is facing rising interest rates and a current boom in commodity prices including oil, natural gas, potash and grain prices. The two documents below illustrate the nature of Alberta's capital investment stock relative to other provinces. Alberta in 1981 had double the per capita private sector investment of the next province Saskatchewan. As a conse...