AB Pol Econ

1Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch

Imperial was the first of Canada's Big Oil to issue a third quarter report. The shareholders of Imperial, or IMO to markets, are receiving a rather parsimonious dividend ($227-million) which is being raised 29 per cent (from still a relatively low, conservative level). In addition to about $170-million in clash dividends this quarter, Imperial will buy back $1.5-billion ins shares and repay debt owing to Exxon of $1.0-billion. It is evident that Exxon-Mobil wants more return in the form of cash from its oil sands "experiments." It will be up to Imperial's Canadian board and management to fight to prolong the life of the oilsands primarily through generous Canadian taxpayer handouts, not Exxon investment. For nine-months to 30 September 2022, Imperial paid $1.6-billion in royalties mostl...

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

Updated 2 November 2022 I spent October 21-23 at the NDP conventions at Calgary’s Hyatt Regency. The Hyatt is a tony place for a “labour-based” party and six years before it was the Hyatt too which welcomed DIPers. By my third convention I did finally find a hospitality suite, two to go to in fact, with rumours of a third. Most sophisticated parties, like Alberta's NDP, now operate with sponsoring organizations to create the single most spectacular annual gathering of the parties' core supporters. The usual organizations for both parties are also relying on business for support. I could see why some business groups and others are investing time of senior people at these conventions simply to ensure they have a voice “in” a prospective NDP government It was very strange that the UCP were h...

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta PST- ESNA presentation

On Friday 21 October 2022, I made a presentation, along with two collaborators Ian Glassford and Elizabeth Smythe to the Economics Society of Northern Alberta on A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published in June by Athabasca University Press. Here is the link to the Youtube channel of ESNA. Below are my slides for the presentation. Much of the question and answer session had much to do with the question of whether personal income tax is essentially a tax on consumption and why would you need to add another sales tax which is not progressive, unlike the personal income tax. Of course the progressivity of personal income tax is debatable given the vast number of specific credit and treatments on savings instruments which disproportionately benefit the well-off. The...

Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”

20Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Health, Opinion/Research

Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”

Several announcements from Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary took place last week. We unpack these announcements for their significance. Guilbeault takes centre stage On Wednesday 12 October 2022 Environment and Climate Change Canada released "draft guidance" on "best- in- class" GHG emissions for oil and gas projects. The National Observer regarded the guidance as a surrender to Big Oil, particularly the oilsands industry. I will examine some of the interesting aspects of draft guidance. Most important is the "draft" adjective used. Clearly Minister Guilbeault does not see the guidance as the final word. The question for industry and environmentalists will be where the red line will be drawn over future oilsands growth and the emissions cap. According to Cloe Logan of the National Observer ...

10Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Premier Danielle Smith- Buckle-up

It was probably closer than she expected but her faith in the count was ultimately rewarded. Last night it took 6 vote counts to decide the winner. Smith finally got 53.77 per cent to Toews 46.23 per cent. The UCP is now a party quite evenly split between the party of Jason Kenney (and designated successor Travis Toews) and the party of Daniel Smith. I didn't watch the full victory speech except first few words. Smith looked delighted, basking in her new power. How she will wield it remains to be seen. Brian Jean did much worse than I thought. For a thoughtful "biography" of Smith see Jason Markusoff's post dated 6 October 2022 entitled "The reinvention(s) of Danielle Smith." Another good primer is West of Centre with Kathleen Petty. There is also a fascinating post by Ken Boessenko...

5Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Environment, Politics

Timber Management Agreements- politics and consultation rights

A recent rash of timber license agreements have been reached in the past week (29 September; 27 September). This is indicative of the influence of timber interests- labour and capital- whose support of the local UCP candidate will practically guarantee their election. These agreements purport to give long-term employment guarantees. These assurances however might not be entirely in accord with the actual tenure agreements. Grande Prairie The 29 September news release from Nate Horner, the Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Economic Development minister spoke to the future of the Grande Prairie region reads in part: Over their lifespans, the renewed Grande Prairie and Pembina FMAs are expected to maintain more than 1,250 full-time, contract and seasonal positions, and will potentially cont...

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

PST- the Political Suicide Tax

Updated 12 October 2022 Above- Interview with Bob Ascah- Mornings 630 CHED- Provincial Sales Tax- 11 October 2022. The following article is reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) which was published Tuesday, 4 October 2022. In this article I make the now familiar plea to Alberta politicians to stop the roller coaster of provincial finances by bringing in a provincial sales tax. As the article explains Albertans have become used to paying low taxes while enjoying good or in some cases superior public goods and services than other provinces' citizens. However the "Alberta Tax Advantage" has a darker side. It has produced a hard core of politicians, business groups. and citizens who hate taxes, especially a sales tax. This type of magical thinking has produced...

2Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Character and the UCP leadership race

The character of political leaders is critical to success of the society governed by the leaders. Frequently cited characteristics of political leadership include trustworthiness and honesty. Good interpersonal and organizational skills and judgement are other desirable qualities. Danielle Smith Smith's character has been mainly evaluated on her judgement in giving up the Wild Rose leadership and joining the Progressive Conservative caucus under the late premier Jim Prentice. This move drew outrage from her supporters leaving the party in a lurch just months before the election writ was dropped. This action caused a split in the conservative vote producing an unexpectedly large win by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. The Wild Rose under Brian Jean did much better than anticipated winning 21 ...

29Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Government Finances, Health, Intergovernmental, Investment, Opinion/Research

The UCP Front-runners- Policy Analysis

In this analysis I compare both the slogans and key phrases of the candidates. Slogans and phrases which are meant to attract members to vote for their preferred candidate and some of the detail of their top policy priorities. I also drill down to examine three policy areas in more detail. At the time of publication Danielle Smith is the presumed frontrunner with Travis Toews second and Brian Jean third. High level slogans compared According to Danielle Smith’s “Alberta First” campaign she will: Free Alberta from Ottawa’s control; Protect the rights and freedoms of Albertans; Unleash our economic potential and restore the Alberta Advantage, and Defeat Rachel Notley and the NDP in the next election Travis Toews promises responsible, stable leadership and promises to unite ...

De Havilland exits Ontario: Destination Wheatland County, Alberta

25Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Investment, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

De Havilland exits Ontario: Destination Wheatland County, Alberta

As previewed in Abpolecon.ca last July and this April, Alberta continues to poach unionized jobs from Ontario. Protracted negotiations between disgraced Unifor former president Gerry Diaz and De Havilland failed to protect thousands of jobs at the company's Downsview facility. In October 2021, Unifor bowing to the inevitable reduction in jobs acceded to a three-year deal which would preserve 112 member jobs in production and 673 member jobs working in office, technical and professional positions at the plant. However it did achieve a payment to employees from the phase out of the Dash-8 commitment. Negotiations centered on the company's plans to leave its current production location at the Downsview plant, ending production of the Dash 8 aircraft. In the absence of a commitment to re...