Friday, November 22

Politics

Agencies, ATB, Financial Institutions, Loan Losses, Politics

Bill 44 brings Alberta governments new supervisory powers over ATB Financial

Flying under the radar, the Finance Minister on 3 November introduced Bill 44 the Financial Statutes Amendment Act, an innocuous sounding Bill with important implications for ATB Financial. Minister Toews described the Bill as reducing red tape for "Alberta job creators while improving the resilience of Alberta's financial institutions." The Bill will improve Alberta’s regulatory environment and the competitiveness of Alberta’s financial sector. It will help Alberta attract much-needed investment and job creation in support of our economic recovery plan, and it will balance the government’s commitment to responsible oversight of Alberta’s financial institutions with their need to compete and evolve. However underneath the standard rhetoric of red tape reduction, job creation, and investme...
Budget, Fiscal History, Politics

A presentation to the Board of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce – A Sales Tax for Alberta-Why and How

This morning I made a presentation to the Board of Directors of the Edmonton Chamber and senior management of the Edmonton Chamber.  Below is the PowerPoint/PDF. Although the business community is still generally negative to a provincial sales tax, possibly harmonized with the federal GST, there appears to be a growing realization that non-renewable resource revenue will not be sufficient alone to balance Alberta's structural deficits. In late October, the Chamber released Forging our Future which includes the following: While government spending and support programs are critical right now,we must not lose sight of the fiscal challenges on the horizon.We recommend a review of the Canadian tax system and a review ofAlberta’s revenue sources, including consideration for a consumption t...
Capital Spending, Economic Data, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Presentation to EQUS directors- 23 November

EQUS is a small, co-operative distributor of  electricity to 12,000, mostly rural, customers.  The organization is the product of a series of mergers of rural electrification co-operatives over the past two decades. EQUS employs about 100 staff with its head office in Innisfail. The presentation, provocatively entitled "Alberta's Crumbling Economic and Fiscal Foundation" builds on concerns about the future health of Alberta's economy in a world where international financial capital places more emphasis on renewable energy solutions. The presentation highlights the pivotal role of capital expenditures of the oil and gas sector which have driven the Alberta economy since 1947. Alberta's gross fixed capital formation (oil and gas, institutional, industrial, residential and non-residential bui...
Peter Lougheed- Address to Calgary Chamber of Commerce- 13 March 1981
Energy, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Peter Lougheed- Address to Calgary Chamber of Commerce- 13 March 1981

Background From Lou Hyndman's papers, this speech is given to a friendly business audience at the height of the energy fight between Ottawa and ALberta. The parallels between 1980-81 and today are many, but there are considerable differences. In 1980-81, inflation was rampant over 10 per cent and interest rates had soared. Oil was trading at historic highs due to the 1979 Iranian revolution. The Alberta economy had enjoyed six straight years of boom conditions.  Unemployment was very low and cranes dotted Edmonton and Calgary's skylines. Joe Clark's administration had been dethroned and Pierre Trudeau was back in office.  Jimmy Carter had lost the presidency to Ronald Reagan and the rest of the world outside Alberta was spiralling into recession. The National Energy Program was an attack o...
Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Harmonized Sales Tax not a Panacea- Opinion

 But neither will ignoring the revenue side cure the deficit problem Franco Terrazzano's Opinion piece in the 9 October Edmonton Journal  is quite right when he observes that a “provincial sales tax won’t erase Alberta’s red ink.” No single mechanism can do that. Alberta’s massive deficit and future deficits will not go away merely by blaming Alberta politicians (past and present) who have spent resource wealth on maintaining a high level of public services and infrastructure. However to suggest that sales tax advocates believe a sales tax will eliminate the deficit by itself is disingenuous. The economic argument for a sales tax is compelling for a number of reasons. First, it is a far more efficient tax than personal or corporate income taxes. A commonly used metric of the economic cost...
Agencies, Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics, Uncategorized

After waiting an extra 2 months 2019-20- some major surprises missed in February forecast

Updated 10 November 2020 In an earlier report on the crucial role played by the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in government finances, we highlighted the Commission's role in overseeing the North West Redwater Upgrader investment, commenced in the latter years of the Stelmach regime. We raised some doubts, given APMC's record with the North West Redwater Partnership  (NWRP), about its competence in negotiating with TC Energy on the Keystone XL project.  APMC is also the agency tasked with negotiating the Energy East commitment and the controversial oil-by rail contracts. With the two-month delay in the publication of the Government of Alberta's Annual Report and audited consolidated financial statements, the public  finally has been apprised that Alberta's budget shortfal...
Fiscal Update- August 2020
Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Politics

Fiscal Update- August 2020

It appears our UCP friends have left it to the last moment to drop the fiscal update and financial accounts on the Opposition NDP who will debate the documents tomorrow.. It could be cynicism or it could be the UCP Cabinet and Caucus still have not agreed among themselves how to position the past year's financial accounts- blaming the NDP- or how do we preach fiscal austerity in a sea of red ink, and how do you budget credibly to a balanced budget in 22-23 or 23-24? How can you make the numbers add up, even with glowing expectations of energy and other investment pouring into the province?  The latter point may not be seen as credible by the rating agencies. In reality for the next two years, Alberta, will be a net taker from Confederation, not leading the country in economic growth and dr...
Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan
Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...
Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report
Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report

Preston ManningSource: Government of Alberta   Whether you like Premier Jason Kenney or not, one must agree he has been a busy Premier.  A Premier who sets out a playbook and is following this platform. Whether you like his policy platform or not, he is a man on a mission to transform Alberta seemingly from the ground up. Reading daily news releases from the Government of Alberta, this government likes to claim “Promise Kept!” The Fair Deal page is a trove of information about the Government’s responses to the report (finalized before the Pandemic took hold) including recommendations underway, recommendations agreed to in principle, recommendations with support for further analysis, and recommendations that require modification. If anything, Premier Kenney is well organized and marchin...
Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie
Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...