Monday, March 10

Politics

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act
Energy, Environment, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act

Much ink, digital and audio content has been accumulated in the nearly two weeks that has elapsed from the Throne Speech and introduction of Bill 1. the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act (ASWUCA) became live. Pundits, learned professors, business people and the loyal opposition have weighed in. The reviews have been rather negative for the most part with much of the criticism aimed at the Henry VIII clauses embedded in the Bill. I walk through the main portions of Bill 1 offering comments and opinions. From what Premier Smith tells us she is open to changes.  These changes came a week later after heavy criticism from many quarters including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. At the end of the day, the Act may have all the huffing and puffing that went into the equalization r...
Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch
Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch

Imperial was the first of Canada's Big Oil to issue a third quarter report. The shareholders of Imperial, or IMO to markets, are receiving a rather parsimonious dividend ($227-million) which is being raised 29 per cent (from still a relatively low, conservative level). In addition to about $170-million in clash dividends this quarter,  Imperial will  buy back $1.5-billion ins shares and repay debt owing to Exxon of $1.0-billion.  It is evident that Exxon-Mobil wants more return in the form of cash from its oil sands "experiments." It will be up to Imperial's Canadian board and management to fight to prolong the life of the oilsands primarily through generous Canadian taxpayer handouts, not Exxon investment. For nine-months to 30 September 2022, Imperial paid $1.6-billion in royalties mostl...
Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style
Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

Updated 2 November 2022 I spent October 21-23 at the NDP conventions at Calgary’s Hyatt Regency. The Hyatt is a tony place for a “labour-based” party and six years before it was the Hyatt too which welcomed DIPers.  By my third convention I did finally find a hospitality suite, two to go to in fact, with rumours of a third. Most sophisticated parties, like Alberta's NDP, now operate with sponsoring organizations to create the single most spectacular annual gathering of the parties' core supporters. The usual organizations for both parties are also relying on business for support. I could see why some business groups and others are investing time of senior people at these conventions simply to ensure they have a voice “in” a prospective NDP government It was very strange that the UCP were h...
Alberta PST- ESNA presentation
Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta PST- ESNA presentation

On Friday 21 October 2022, I made a presentation, along with two collaborators Ian Glassford and Elizabeth Smythe to the Economics Society of Northern Alberta on A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published in June by Athabasca University Press. Here is the link to the Youtube channel of ESNA. Below are my slides for the presentation. Much of the question and answer session had much to do with the question of whether personal income tax is essentially a tax on consumption and why would you need to add another sales tax which is not progressive, unlike the personal income tax. Of course the progressivity of personal income tax is debatable given the vast number of specific credit and treatments on savings instruments which disproportionately benefit the well-off. The...
Opinion/Research, Politics

Premier Danielle Smith- Buckle-up

It was probably closer than she expected but her faith in the count was ultimately rewarded. Last night it took 6 vote counts to decide the winner. Smith finally got 53.77 per cent to Toews 46.23 per cent. The UCP is now a party quite evenly split between the party of Jason Kenney (and designated successor Travis Toews) and the party of Daniel Smith. I didn't watch the full victory speech except first few words. Smith looked delighted, basking in her new power. How she will wield it remains to be seen. Brian Jean did much worse than I thought. For a thoughtful "biography" of Smith see Jason Markusoff's post dated 6 October 2022 entitled "The reinvention(s) of Danielle Smith." Another good primer is West of Centre with Kathleen Petty. There is also a fascinating post by Ken Boessenko...
Employment, Environment, Politics

Timber Management Agreements- politics and consultation rights

A recent rash of timber license agreements have been reached in the past week (29 September; 27 September).  This is indicative of the influence of timber interests- labour and capital- whose support of the local UCP candidate will practically guarantee their election.  These agreements purport to give long-term employment guarantees. These assurances however might not be entirely in accord with the actual tenure agreements.  Grande Prairie The 29 September news release from Nate Horner, the Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Economic Development minister spoke to the future of the Grande Prairie region reads in part: Over their lifespans, the renewed Grande Prairie and Pembina FMAs are expected to maintain more than 1,250 full-time, contract and seasonal positions, and will potentially cont...
Character and the UCP leadership race
Opinion/Research, Politics

Character and the UCP leadership race

The character of political leaders is critical to success of the society governed by the leaders. Frequently cited characteristics of political leadership include trustworthiness and honesty. Good interpersonal and organizational skills and judgement are other desirable qualities. Danielle Smith Smith's character has been mainly evaluated on her judgement in giving up the Wild Rose leadership and joining the Progressive Conservative caucus under the late premier Jim Prentice. This move drew outrage from her supporters leaving the party in a lurch just months before the election writ was dropped. This action caused a split in the conservative vote producing an unexpectedly large win by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. The Wild Rose under Brian Jean did much better than anticipated winning 21 ...
A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How           Book Launch
Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How Book Launch

This past Thursday a book launch took place at the University Club to celebrate the publication of A Sales Tax for Alberta.  Below are my speaking notes and pictures from this celebration.    Speaking Notes- Book Launch Book launch A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How University Club, Edmonton 22 September 2022   My friends, the journey has not ended, it is just beginning!  An inflated ego drove this project in the vain hope that we might convince one courageous politician to choose to take on this controversial project - a sales tax for Alberta. There are so many who helped this book across the goal line providing support and thoughtful feedback.  First to my wife Linda who has been both a catalyst and huge support through what became a longer journey than expected. The initial germinatio...
Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta and the UCP leadership race

Updated 16 August 2022 Well it didn't take too long for a conscientious staffer in Travis Toews' campaign to ferret out the 4 September opinion piece in the Edmonton Journal.  In the article Smith setting forward what I think are credible views about Alberta's topsy-Turvey finances stated- Instead, he (Klein) bought off progressives by spending an excessive and unsustainable amount on public services and he bought off conservatives by lowering taxes below the cost of delivering programs. Now the public service screams holy hell at the mention of austerity and taxpayers say they aren’t prepared to pay a dime more. I’m here to tell you: Everyone — on both sides of the political spectrum — needs to suck it up. Alberta needs a three-step financial reset. Step 1: Liquidate the Heritage Fund...
Energy, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut: Theory and Reality

    In 2023, a book on the Kenney government edited by Ricardo Acuna and Trevor Harrison will be released. I contribute one chapter on Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut examining critically whether this one-third cut to corporate income tax has had any positive impact on Alberta’s economy in terms of investment, jobs and wages. In this post (which is not part of the book chapter), I explore the theory behind the corporate income tax cuts.  The critical element in my view is in assessing the nature of capital and labour in Alberta and in particular the energy sector, most notably the oilsands. Background In the UCP’s 2019 election platform, a key policy plank was to cut the corporate income tax from 12 per cent to 8 per cent over four years. Two economists- Jack M...