Opinion/Research Archives

Budget Speech- Annotated and The Economic Consequences of Mr. Toews

9Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Employment, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Budget Speech- Annotated and The Economic Consequences of Mr. Toews

Budget Speech delivered on Tuesday 28 February 2023, Legislative Assembly of Alberta Mr. Speaker, I count it a tremendous honour to rise in the House today to present Budget 2023 – the fifth I have presented on behalf of Albertans. In the fall of 2019, I put forward a four-year plan to bring the province back to fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget. In some respects, these past four years have felt like a century – in part, due to the extraordinary global challenges we faced but also because of how far we’ve come. When, as a government, we took office in 2019, Alberta had an economy that was flat-lined, and we were spending $10 billion more than comparable provinces on services, without better outcomes. Our plan to strengthen Alberta’s economic foundation was two-fold: First, to bri...

Presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs

26Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs

On 31 March I made the following presentation to the Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs about my Parkland paper Can AIMCo be Fixed? You can view the presentation on Youtube here. The discussion after the presentation was stimulating and wide ranging and highlighted concerns about government politicians interfering with public sector pensions. The Medicine Hat News had a story about the presentation on 13 April 2022. Below are my speaking notes and below that is a PDF of revised slide deck. (One of the numbers in Figure 2 had to be restated.) "Good afternoon everyone! I am speaking to you from Treaty 6 territory, a traditional gathering place for diverse Indigenous peoples including the Cree, Blackfoot, Métis, Nakota Sioux, and many others whose histories,...

27Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2022: the 2023 election begins

Analysis and Opinion On Thursday afternoon, 24 February Travis Toews tabled his fourth budget. From the standpoint of the United Conservative Party, the budget was an unadulterated triumph. Sure, higher oil prices had something to do with the anticipated surplus in 2022-23 ("a traffic cone could balance Alberta's budget," NDP opposition leader Rachel Notley proclaimed before the speech). admitted Toews to interviewers, but other revenue sources were healthier. By sticking to the fiscal plan as outlined in September 2019 by the MacKinnon panel, the government had done the hard lifting of keeping expenses from growing and attracting investment and Albertans were now reaping the fiscal and economic rewards. In this post, I examine the budget address of Toews, its key messages and its impli...

20Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Budget 2022- Alberta’s Fiscal Dilemma

Updated 24 February Opinion Alberta’s budget context is favorable right now with oil prices at just over $90 U.S. a barrel. A budget surplus, based on resource revenue, is widely expected for fiscal 2022-23. Alberta employment is back to the pre-pandemic levels. (I may have given the GOA the benefit of the doubt here. The December 2021 Statistics Canada Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies revealed Alberta payroll employment "had not yet reached pre-COVID levels in December 2021 (-34,400; -1.7%)," This survey can be a better gauge than the Labour Force Survey which is notoriously volatile. Kenney’s balanced budget approach to hold spending constant or reduce spending has been "rewarded" with the inevitable rebound of Alberta's oil and gas-dependent economy. I...

31Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics, Rural

2021 Top Stories

Politics During 2021 Alberta’s political oxygen was consumed almost entirely with COVID-19- a topic Abpolecon.ca kept in the background. The third, fourth (Delta) and fifth (Omicron) waves rolled over the province and Kenney’s government was consistently found wanting. Not only was 2021 defined by the premier’s mishandling of COVID - the “best summer ever” but the NDP consistently out fund-raised the UCP. On top of these failures was a sexual harassment suit, an ill-timed UCP Christmas reception, and 22 constituency associations demanding the leadership review be bumped up to March (the effort was denied by the party Executive). By September Kenney was regarded as a “dead man walking.” In December, former Wildrose leader and UCP leadership contestant Brian Jean resurfaced as UCP candidat...

24Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Energy, Opinion/Research

The Allan Inquiry

Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage. had the privilege, on behalf of Mr. Kenney’s government, to release the much delayed and controversial report of the public inquiry into anti-energy campaigns (Allan Report). As readers are aware this much maligned inquiry run by J. Stephens Allan was $1-million over budget and delayed several times. Besides the political controversies it stirred, its mandate was assailed by Amnesty International Canada as it “feeds into a worsening climate of hostility towards human rights defenders — particularly Indigenous, women and environmental human rights defenders — exposing them to intimidation and threats, including threats of violence,” This stirred a condescending and lengthy response from Jason Kenney (published in its entirety in the National Post) wh...

6Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Opinion/Research

Bon Temps Rouler – Let the good times roll!

Opinion Let the Good Times Roll -seemed to be the message from Minister Toews as he crowed Tuesday about the huge revenue boost coming in. In summary- "the economic recovery plan is working." (Here is the link to the press conference and Second Quarter Update for 2021-22.) The job creation tax cut is working. The economy is growing and diversifying. Toews as MLA for Grande Prairie Wapiti highlighted the $2.5-billion (the Northern Petrochemical project) as well as the Amazon Web Services commitment to the Calgary Area. Personal income tax and corporate income tax revenues are up but nothing like non-renewable resource revenues that have cracked a decade high (table below). The driving force was the bitumen producers who are bringing in a five-fold increase from what was budgeted. This tur...

15Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan appears to be taking off

The past ten-days has seen a flurry of announcements from Premier Kenney, his Jobs, Economy and Innovation minister Doug Schweitzer, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity- Dale Nally, and Finance Minister Travis Toews. Kenney, in all these announcements, was centre stage and answering inquiries from the media. Hydrogen Roadmap The first announcement on 6 November was the unveiling of a hydrogen strategy. Hydrogen, especially “blue hydrogen,” is now seen as having the potential of an oilsands-like boom. According to Kenney: “With a global market estimated to be worth $2.5 trillion a year by 2050, hydrogen could be Alberta’s next great energy opportunity. Alberta has been a global leader in responsible energy production for decades, and now we’re ready to apply that leadership t...

1Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research

Captive insurance- Why the Interest Now?

The Pitch On Wednesday, 27 October Finance Minister Travis introduced Bill 76 the Captive Insurance Companies Act. The accompanying press release noted the Bill would be "an alternative to the traditional insurance market to help relieve cost and availability pressures on Alberta businesses." A captive insurance company could be owned by "industrial, commercial or financial entity that can offer services when traditional insurers are unable to provide necessary coverage." The release went on to note that "challenges with global insurance supply" are making it difficult for commercial entities to find adequate insurance at reasonable prices." The creation of a captive insurer would allow a company to insure its own risks or members of an association or industry group. These entities would h...

10Oct

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Employment, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research

Dow- a victory for Kenney (of sorts)

On Wednesday 6 October a joyful Premier Kenney announced the biggest hit of his economic recovery plan with Midland, Michigan-headquartered Dow Chemicals committing to a huge petrochemical investment beside its existing Fort Saskatchewan facility. The full text is worthy to cite as it highlights Kenney's possible rising from "political dead man walking" status. The message and excitement contained within was worthy of a crow's proud call. “Today Dow announced what could become the largest investment in the Alberta economy in more than a decade. This is a huge win for job creation, economic growth and Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan. If this project receives regulatory approval and a positive final investment decision, it will lead to a multibillion-dollar investment in our economy a...