Opinion/Research Archives - Page 5 of 7

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

9Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

Corrected 9 January 2023 Sovereignty Act applications- before the election? The application of the Sovereignty Act before the May provincial general election has a lot of moving parts. The Act came into force on 15 December, the date of royal assent. At present Premier Smith is constructing the case along with her finance minister Travis Toews and jobs and economic development minister Brian Jean of a competent government managing finances prudently and attracting investment. In a “Special Economic Report” sent out to UCP supporters on 7 January the Premier highlights that under her leadership 41,500 full time jobs were added in December, most from the private sector. The communication reminds Albertans that they enjoy the highest wages in Canada and the lowest taxes. On the fi...

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act

12Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act

Much ink, digital and audio content has been accumulated in the nearly two weeks that has elapsed from the Throne Speech and introduction of Bill 1. the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act (ASWUCA) became live. Pundits, learned professors, business people and the loyal opposition have weighed in. The reviews have been rather negative for the most part with much of the criticism aimed at the Henry VIII clauses embedded in the Bill. I walk through the main portions of Bill 1 offering comments and opinions. From what Premier Smith tells us she is open to changes. These changes came a week later after heavy criticism from many quarters including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. At the end of the day, the Act may have all the huffing and puffing that went into the equalization r...

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

5Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

Between the first quarter update at the end of August and the mid-year update of November 25th? a new premier took charge. In the tbf-2022-23-first-quarter (as its PDF is known) the province expected to collect $75.9 billion in revenue. In tbf-2022-23-mid-year total revenue is $76.9 billion. The Mid-term Update was called “Strong economy, strong Alberta” equating Alberta to economy. The press conference video is here. Spending Spending has increased from $62.1-billion in the 2022 Budget, including COVID-19 recovery spending, to $64.7-billion in the fiscal update or by $2.6-billion. Increased spending comes from $300-million in electricity rebates, “affordability initiatives” of $1.2-billion, $308 million for higher costs of selling oil, $340 million for Health including $174 million for th...

12Nov

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Budget, Energy, Health, Opinion/Research

What does Danielle Smith think?

Updated and corrected 3 December 2022 See also a related BlogPost for the Parkland Institute What Was She Thinking? A Glimpse Into Danielle Smith’s Mind published 2 December 2022 Perhaps the best glimpse into Premier Smith’s thinking on a whole range of critical public policy issues is contained in a 20-page paper entitled “Alberta’s Key Challenges and Opportunities.” This paper was part of the School of Public Policy’s pre-publication series called the Alberta Futures Project. This paper was published in June 2021 before oil and gas prices rose substantially changing the province’s fiscal picture. What is surprising is the absence of a discussion of a sovereignty act and confronting federal overreach central to her winning the UCP leadership. In this article, I examine fundamental v...

1Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch

Imperial was the first of Canada's Big Oil to issue a third quarter report. The shareholders of Imperial, or IMO to markets, are receiving a rather parsimonious dividend ($227-million) which is being raised 29 per cent (from still a relatively low, conservative level). In addition to about $170-million in clash dividends this quarter, Imperial will buy back $1.5-billion ins shares and repay debt owing to Exxon of $1.0-billion. It is evident that Exxon-Mobil wants more return in the form of cash from its oil sands "experiments." It will be up to Imperial's Canadian board and management to fight to prolong the life of the oilsands primarily through generous Canadian taxpayer handouts, not Exxon investment. For nine-months to 30 September 2022, Imperial paid $1.6-billion in royalties mostl...

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

Updated 2 November 2022 I spent October 21-23 at the NDP conventions at Calgary’s Hyatt Regency. The Hyatt is a tony place for a “labour-based” party and six years before it was the Hyatt too which welcomed DIPers. By my third convention I did finally find a hospitality suite, two to go to in fact, with rumours of a third. Most sophisticated parties, like Alberta's NDP, now operate with sponsoring organizations to create the single most spectacular annual gathering of the parties' core supporters. The usual organizations for both parties are also relying on business for support. I could see why some business groups and others are investing time of senior people at these conventions simply to ensure they have a voice “in” a prospective NDP government It was very strange that the UCP were h...

Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”

20Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Health, Opinion/Research

Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”

Several announcements from Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary took place last week. We unpack these announcements for their significance. Guilbeault takes centre stage On Wednesday 12 October 2022 Environment and Climate Change Canada released "draft guidance" on "best- in- class" GHG emissions for oil and gas projects. The National Observer regarded the guidance as a surrender to Big Oil, particularly the oilsands industry. I will examine some of the interesting aspects of draft guidance. Most important is the "draft" adjective used. Clearly Minister Guilbeault does not see the guidance as the final word. The question for industry and environmentalists will be where the red line will be drawn over future oilsands growth and the emissions cap. According to Cloe Logan of the National Observer ...

10Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Premier Danielle Smith- Buckle-up

It was probably closer than she expected but her faith in the count was ultimately rewarded. Last night it took 6 vote counts to decide the winner. Smith finally got 53.77 per cent to Toews 46.23 per cent. The UCP is now a party quite evenly split between the party of Jason Kenney (and designated successor Travis Toews) and the party of Daniel Smith. I didn't watch the full victory speech except first few words. Smith looked delighted, basking in her new power. How she will wield it remains to be seen. Brian Jean did much worse than I thought. For a thoughtful "biography" of Smith see Jason Markusoff's post dated 6 October 2022 entitled "The reinvention(s) of Danielle Smith." Another good primer is West of Centre with Kathleen Petty. There is also a fascinating post by Ken Boessenko...

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

PST- the Political Suicide Tax

Updated 12 October 2022 Above- Interview with Bob Ascah- Mornings 630 CHED- Provincial Sales Tax- 11 October 2022. The following article is reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) which was published Tuesday, 4 October 2022. In this article I make the now familiar plea to Alberta politicians to stop the roller coaster of provincial finances by bringing in a provincial sales tax. As the article explains Albertans have become used to paying low taxes while enjoying good or in some cases superior public goods and services than other provinces' citizens. However the "Alberta Tax Advantage" has a darker side. It has produced a hard core of politicians, business groups. and citizens who hate taxes, especially a sales tax. This type of magical thinking has produced...

2Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Opinion/Research, Politics

Character and the UCP leadership race

The character of political leaders is critical to success of the society governed by the leaders. Frequently cited characteristics of political leadership include trustworthiness and honesty. Good interpersonal and organizational skills and judgement are other desirable qualities. Danielle Smith Smith's character has been mainly evaluated on her judgement in giving up the Wild Rose leadership and joining the Progressive Conservative caucus under the late premier Jim Prentice. This move drew outrage from her supporters leaving the party in a lurch just months before the election writ was dropped. This action caused a split in the conservative vote producing an unexpectedly large win by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. The Wild Rose under Brian Jean did much better than anticipated winning 21 ...