Wednesday, April 2

Opinion/Research

Breaking News- Premier Smith’s delivers ultimatum to Trudeau
Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Breaking News- Premier Smith’s delivers ultimatum to Trudeau

Letter from Premier Smith to Prime Minister Trudeau February 16, 2023 Media inquiries Premier Danielle Smith invites Ottawa to collaborate with Alberta on carbon capture, utilization and storage investment and halt introduction of Just Transition legislation and oil and gas emissions cap. Dear Prime Minister: I am writing in follow up to our meeting of February 7th, during which we discussed the need for the Government of Canada to halt introduction of the proposed Just Transition legislation and implementation of unachievable targets and measures under the federal Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) such as the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) and oil and gas sector emissions cap. As a much more productive alternative, I invited your government to agree to commencing a collaborative ef...
Budgetary advice from UofC and the Fraser Institute – cross-examined
Budget, Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budgetary advice from UofC and the Fraser Institute – cross-examined

“Don’t Spend Away the Windfall: Better Options for Alberta’s Unexpected Revenues,” written by Jack M. Mintz, Trevor Tombe, Joel Emes, and Tegan Hill is timely asit arrives a few weeks before the provincial budget (28 February).  This contribution, combining the right leaning Fraser Institute and two well-known University of Calgary economists offers three approaches for considering the windfall by Alberta’s finance minister Travis Toews. The paper’s moralistic title suggests politicians are not to be trusted with windfalls At this moment, we are also awaiting the report of Todd Hirsch who was engaged by the Alberta NDP to study “how an NDP government can stabilize the province’s finances and build a more resilient economy.” His mandate has been interpreted as what to do with the windfall b...
ATB, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

Open Reply to Free Alberta Strategy letter of 2 February to donors on article in The Conversation

On 30 January The Conversation ran an article of mine entitled What the Free Alberta Strategy gets wrong about Canada’s banking system that was reprinted in Abpolecon.ca. On Thursday at 8:01 a.m. I received the following email from the Free Alberta Strategy (FAS). Robert,  The Free Alberta Strategy is back in the news again! This time though, it’s thanks to an attack piece, which we thought we'd take some time to respond to. In a new article published in the federal-government-funded “The Conversation” publication, Robert L. Ascah, a researcher at the also-federal-government-funded Parkland Institute, attempts to lay the hatchet to the Free Alberta Strategy. In his piece, entitled “What the Free Alberta Strategy gets wrong about Canada’s banking system,” Mr. Ascah argues that the Alberta ...
Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2
Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

Corrected 9 January 2023 Sovereignty Act applications- before the election? The application of the Sovereignty Act before the May provincial general election has a lot of moving parts.  The Act came into force on 15 December, the date of royal assent. At present  Premier Smith is constructing the case along with her finance minister Travis Toews and jobs and economic development minister Brian Jean of a competent government managing finances prudently and attracting investment. In a “Special Economic Report” sent out to UCP supporters on 7 January the Premier highlights that under her leadership 41,500 full time jobs were added in December, most from the private sector. The communication reminds Albertans that they enjoy the highest wages in Canada and  the lowest taxes.  On the fi...
A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act
Energy, Environment, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Nod to Independence- Alberta Sovereignty (within a United Canada) Act

Much ink, digital and audio content has been accumulated in the nearly two weeks that has elapsed from the Throne Speech and introduction of Bill 1. the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act (ASWUCA) became live. Pundits, learned professors, business people and the loyal opposition have weighed in. The reviews have been rather negative for the most part with much of the criticism aimed at the Henry VIII clauses embedded in the Bill. I walk through the main portions of Bill 1 offering comments and opinions. From what Premier Smith tells us she is open to changes.  These changes came a week later after heavy criticism from many quarters including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. At the end of the day, the Act may have all the huffing and puffing that went into the equalization r...
Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue
Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

Between the first quarter update at the end of August and the mid-year update of November 25th? a new premier took charge. In the tbf-2022-23-first-quarter (as its PDF is known) the province expected to collect $75.9 billion in revenue. In tbf-2022-23-mid-year total revenue is $76.9 billion. The Mid-term Update was called “Strong economy, strong Alberta” equating Alberta to economy. The press conference video is here. Spending Spending has increased from $62.1-billion in the 2022 Budget, including COVID-19 recovery spending, to $64.7-billion in the fiscal update or by $2.6-billion. Increased spending comes from $300-million in electricity rebates, “affordability initiatives” of $1.2-billion, $308 million for higher costs of selling oil, $340 million for Health including $174 million for th...
What does Danielle Smith think?
Budget, Energy, Health, Opinion/Research

What does Danielle Smith think?

Updated and corrected 3 December 2022   See also a related BlogPost for the Parkland Institute What Was She Thinking? A Glimpse Into Danielle Smith’s Mind published 2 December 2022 Perhaps the best glimpse into Premier Smith’s thinking on a whole range of critical public policy issues is contained in a 20-page paper entitled “Alberta’s Key Challenges and Opportunities.”   This paper was part of the School of Public Policy’s pre-publication series called the Alberta Futures Project. This paper was published in June 2021 before oil and gas prices rose substantially changing the province’s fiscal picture. What is surprising is the absence of a discussion of a sovereignty act and confronting federal overreach central to her winning the UCP leadership. In this article, I examine fundamental v...
Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch
Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Exxon money leaving Alberta’s oilpatch

Imperial was the first of Canada's Big Oil to issue a third quarter report. The shareholders of Imperial, or IMO to markets, are receiving a rather parsimonious dividend ($227-million) which is being raised 29 per cent (from still a relatively low, conservative level). In addition to about $170-million in clash dividends this quarter,  Imperial will  buy back $1.5-billion ins shares and repay debt owing to Exxon of $1.0-billion.  It is evident that Exxon-Mobil wants more return in the form of cash from its oil sands "experiments." It will be up to Imperial's Canadian board and management to fight to prolong the life of the oilsands primarily through generous Canadian taxpayer handouts, not Exxon investment. For nine-months to 30 September 2022, Imperial paid $1.6-billion in royalties mostl...
Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style
Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Reflections on 2 political conventions – Alberta style

Updated 2 November 2022 I spent October 21-23 at the NDP conventions at Calgary’s Hyatt Regency. The Hyatt is a tony place for a “labour-based” party and six years before it was the Hyatt too which welcomed DIPers.  By my third convention I did finally find a hospitality suite, two to go to in fact, with rumours of a third. Most sophisticated parties, like Alberta's NDP, now operate with sponsoring organizations to create the single most spectacular annual gathering of the parties' core supporters. The usual organizations for both parties are also relying on business for support. I could see why some business groups and others are investing time of senior people at these conventions simply to ensure they have a voice “in” a prospective NDP government It was very strange that the UCP were h...
Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”
Energy, Environment, Health, Opinion/Research

Federal guidance for best-in-class -Alberta’s carbon pipeline-Pathways “plan”

Several announcements from Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary took place last week.  We unpack these announcements for their significance. Guilbeault takes centre stage On Wednesday 12 October 2022 Environment and Climate Change Canada released "draft guidance" on "best- in- class" GHG emissions for oil and gas projects. The National Observer regarded the guidance as a surrender to Big Oil, particularly the oilsands industry. I will examine some of the interesting aspects of draft guidance. Most important is the "draft" adjective used. Clearly Minister Guilbeault does not see the guidance as the final word.  The question for industry and environmentalists will be where the red line will be drawn over future oilsands growth and the emissions cap.  According to Cloe Logan of the National Observer ...