Opinion/Research Archives

23Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Premier Smith threatens national unity crisis- it’s about distraction

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. It has been a busy week since Mark Carney was elected Liberal Party leader and formed a government. Danielle Smith has used Carney’s recent and rapid rise as Liberal leader to set out conditions (see below) for either the new Liberal PM or a future CPC leader, Pierre Poilievre to meet. All of these demands are rooted in the goals of the oil and gas industry or the Take-Back-Alberta activists now controlling the United Conservative Party. Last week I canvassed Smith’s fusillade at newly sworn in PM Carney of 14 March. This past week she has continued her campaign to force federal political leaders to come on board to in effect ...

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. Alberta governments have a history of painting the federal government as a malevolent force. An early and legitimate beef was the lack of control and ownership of natural resources which wasn't rectified until 1930. Readers are familiar with the rise of the Social Credit movement and its five year fight over banking with the Dominion government. The most recent fight since today's skirmishes was the battle over provincial government power over the setting of resource pricing, commonly known as the National Energy Program, It is a canon of Alberta political science that successful premiers fight Ottawa. For an excellent note on western alienation/separatism...

3Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Budget 2025- deficits return

On 27 February Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance Nate Horner tabled the budget for the fiscal year 2025-26 and as required by law the budget sets out targets for fiscal years 2026-27 and 2027-28. I was privileged to be the guest of NDP MLA for Edmonton-Goldbar, Marlin Schmidt. For over 40-years I have been able to attend budget addresses, work on about 10 budgets while at the Treasury department, and attend half a dozen budget lock-ups while at ATB Financial and the Institute for Public Economics. I have watched the performance of many finance ministers under 9 premiers (excluding the caretaker David Hancock). I note that no finance minister over these 40-years has ever become premier. Notable were Jim Dinning, Doug Horner, Ted Morton, and Travis Toews’ challenges for t...

Smith, LaGrange, Alberta public service face grave test

17Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith, LaGrange, Alberta public service face grave test

Updated 18 February 2025 On 5 February 2025, Carrie Tait of the Globe and Mail broke the story of the dismissal of Athana Mentzelopoulos who was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Alberta Health Services (AHS). Since that date Ms. Mentzelapoulous has entered a statement of claim at the Court of King's Bench seeking: a. Judgment for pay in lieu of notice in the amount of $583,443.00, less applicable income tax; b. Judgment for bad faith, aggravated, and/or punitive damages, in the amount of $1,116,557.00; c. In the alternative, judgment for damages for breach of contract in the sum currently estimated at $1,700,000.00, less applicable income tax, being the balance of the compensation owed under the Employment Agreement, or such further and other amount as this Honourable Cou...

5Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

“Alberta’s New Heritage Fund “

Updated 8 February 2025 On 5 February this post was originally published. I February 2025 the Standing Committee of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund met to hear from the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance, Nate Horner, his officials, and the Acting Chief Executive Officer of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation AIMCo, provide a high level overview of the new Heritage Fund. Secondly, the Committee received an update on the second quarter report of the Fund's performance. As a result of this testimony and questions and answers. some of the unanswered questions I had about the Fund "refresh" were clarified. I have made some changes from the original post which are highlighted in bold type. The transcript for the meeting has not been posted b...

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...

13Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Investment, Opinion/Research

On the Road to AIMCo’s Politicization

Reprinted from The Parkland Institute with permission. On the Road to AIMCo’s Politicization - Parkland Institute Jan 12, 2025 Bob Ascah The Alberta government’s abrupt dismissal of AIMCo’s board and CEO has raised alarms about political interference and the erosion of the corporation’s independence. The subsequent appointment of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper as AIMCo’s chair underscores concerns that the organization is being reshaped to serve partisan interests rather than focusing on its responsibilities to Albertans. Against this backdrop, understanding AIMCo’s evolution, governance challenges, and its politicization becomes more critical than ever. The Establishment of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) Prior to the establishment of AIMCo, the...

28Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

Canada’s Chief Actuary reports on CPP withdrawal

On Friday 20 December, Canada’s Chief Actuary Assia Billig released a report on the withdrawal formula under section 113(2) the Canada Pension Plan Act. Billig emphasized that “throughout this process my office has acted with independence and impartiality. These two factors are foundational elements to my role as the Chief Actuary.” Background The report was requested by a committee of officials representing ministers of finance as a result of the 23 September announcement of the Smith government they would begin an engagement process based on the Lifeworks (consulting actuary) report’s interpretation of section 113(2) (see below). As part of the $7-million pension roll-out, Premier Smith has claimed that Albertans won’t be asked to decide a referendum question without a number. ...

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

11Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

Updated 11 November 2024 On Thursday 7 November, the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner finally said “enough is enough” for the status quo at the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Minister cited “significant increases in operating costs, management fees and staffing without a corresponding increase to return on investment” including rising staff salary and benefit costs. Horner properly asked the question” why are we paying remarkably high salaries when the organization was not delivering higher returns?” Also identified were rising staffing costs alongside rising external fees. The whole concept of AIMCo was to bring in house expertise and thereby drive down external fees. Horner also removed the 10-member board (this URL was s...

20Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Why AIMCo needs more scrutiny and transparency- Part 1

Note to readers: Updated 21 October 2024 On 6 November the Standing Committee on the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) will be holding its annual public meeting at 6:30 p.m. in the Rocky Mountain Room, 2nd Floor of the Queen Elizabeth II Building in Edmonton. The annual public meeting is open to members of the public either in person or via social media including Facebook. I attended the last two meetings in person and have been able to raise important questions of policy. In the 2022 meeting (transcript here), I was the only member of the public present in person. In 2023, I was pleased that there were nine members of the public raising uncomfortable questions which generally were deflected by officials of Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (TBF) and senior Alberta Invest...