Thursday, January 23

Opinion/Research

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024  (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...
Agencies, Investment, Opinion/Research

On the Road to AIMCo’s Politicization

Reprinted from The Parkland Institute with permission. On the Road to AIMCo’s Politicization - Parkland Institute Jan 12, 2025   Bob Ascah   The Alberta government’s abrupt dismissal of AIMCo’s board and CEO has raised alarms about political interference and the erosion of the corporation’s independence. The subsequent appointment of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper as AIMCo’s chair underscores concerns that the organization is being reshaped to serve partisan interests rather than focusing on its responsibilities to Albertans. Against this backdrop, understanding AIMCo’s evolution, governance challenges, and its politicization becomes more critical than ever. The Establishment of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) Prior to the establishment of AIMCo, the...
Agencies, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

Canada’s Chief Actuary reports on CPP withdrawal

On Friday 20 December, Canada’s Chief Actuary Assia Billig released a report on the withdrawal formula under section 113(2) the Canada Pension Plan Act. Billig emphasized that “throughout this process my office has acted with independence and impartiality. These two factors are foundational elements to my role as the Chief Actuary.” Background The report was requested by a committee of officials representing ministers of finance as a result of the 23 September announcement of the Smith government they would begin an engagement process based on the Lifeworks (consulting actuary)  report’s interpretation of section 113(2) (see below). As part of the $7-million pension roll-out, Premier Smith has claimed that Albertans won’t be asked to decide a referendum question without a number. ...
Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?
Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

Updated 11 November 2024 On Thursday 7 November, the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner finally said “enough is enough” for the status quo at the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Minister cited “significant increases in operating costs, management fees and staffing without a corresponding increase to return on investment” including rising staff salary and benefit costs. Horner properly asked the question” why are we paying remarkably high salaries when the organization was not delivering higher returns?”  Also identified were rising staffing costs alongside rising external fees.  The whole concept of AIMCo was to bring in house expertise and thereby drive down external fees. Horner also removed the 10-member board (this URL was s...
Why AIMCo needs more scrutiny and transparency- Part 1
Agencies, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Why AIMCo needs more scrutiny and transparency- Part 1

Note to readers: Updated 21 October 2024 On 6 November the Standing Committee on the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) will be holding its annual public meeting at 6:30 p.m. in the Rocky Mountain Room, 2nd Floor of the Queen Elizabeth II Building in Edmonton. The annual public meeting is open to members of the public either in person or via social media including Facebook.  I attended the last two meetings in person and have been able to raise important questions of policy.  In the 2022 meeting (transcript here), I was the only member of the public present in person.  In 2023, I was pleased that there were nine members of the public raising uncomfortable questions which generally were deflected by officials of Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (TBF) and senior Alberta Invest...
Economic Data, Investment, Opinion/Research

Book Review- John Rapley’s Twilight of the Money Gods

Twilight of the Money Gods, the title perhaps a nod to Frederick Nietzsche’s Twilight of the idols, is an explosive critique of the discipline of economics as a religion. John Rapley, according to his Globe and Mail biography is political economist specializing in global development, the world economy and economic history. Rapley born in Canada, completed doctoral studies in Canada and pursued post-doctoral work at Oxford University. This book is the best book I have read on the history of economic thought. Particularly interesting is his description of the evolution of political economy of Smith and Ricardo into the neoclassical canon of  Alfred Marshall. He situates the great debate on free trade within the context of a rising and dominant and the Britannica English corn laws. He ...
The Pronouncements of Rebecca Schulz
Energy, Environment, Opinion/Research, Politics

The Pronouncements of Rebecca Schulz

In this 4,000 word essay I recount and analyze the dozen or so news releases put out by Environment and Protected Areas Minister Rebecca Schulz since last June. On 9 June 2023, after the 29 May election Rebecca Schulz was appointed the minister of Environment and Parks. Under the order of precedence for cabinet, Schulz was in the middle of the pecking order at ninth after the Premier. However since her appointment Schulz has overshadowed Smith energy and minerals minister, Brian Jean and has become indispensable in supporting Premier Smith assault against the federal government and, in particular, Environment and Climate Change minister Stephen Guilbeault. In an particularly unsavoury remark in a friendly conversation with Tucker Carlson, Ms. Smith urged Carlson to put Stephen Guilbe...
NDP Leadership campaign- policies compared
Education, Energy, Environment, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

NDP Leadership campaign- policies compared

Introduction Every voter in Alberta’s NDP leadership race has their own set of public policy interests. Some of these voters have few if any interest in politics and have few policy issues except those involving their pocketbooks.  Pocketbook issues include being able to eat, own a cell phone, have a place to call home, access a family doctor and affordable transportation.  Whether this is the typical NDP voter is another question, but at the end of the day if the successor to Rachel Notley is to defeat Danielle Smith’s UCP they will need to understand these pocketbook issues. NDP leadership policies can be found at these websites: ·         https://voteforjodi.ca/jodis-leadership/# ·         https://teamganley.ca/policies ·         https://www.sarahhoffman.ca/priorities ...
Democracy in Alberta – Continued- Opinion
Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Democracy in Alberta – Continued- Opinion

I commend to readers the  article by Elizabeth Smythe, my former intergovernmental colleague in Wednesday’s Edmonton Journal.   Opeds by Dr. Smythe and Jared Wesley in The Tyee are honest attempts by political scientists to do what they are trained for- to provide objectively-based warnings about how fragile our democratic institutions have become.  Recent moves by the Smith government to smother dissent in municipal councils is another worrying sign (Bills 18 and 20). As Wesley states in the Tyee "There’s no hard-and-fast line between democracy and authoritarianism. Just ask people from autocracies: you don’t simply wake up one day under arbitrary rule."  A 30-minute interview between Jared and I can be found at this link The State of Democracy in Alberta- A conversa...
Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s Public Accounts Committee- Thoughts on Accountability and Public Service Neutrality

The purpose of this post is to the delve into the accountability aspects of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in Alberta through the lens of one meeting which took place on 7 May 2024.  The transcript of the meeting can be found here and the video proceedings here. Readers may wish to skip over the detail about the meeting to read the conclusions at the foot of this essay. I attended this meeting because a colleague and I provided briefing material for Marlin Schmidt, NDP MLA for Edmonton Goldbar about the Auditor General’s report on Key Audit Matters. This post serves as a companion piece to my interview with Professor Jared Wesley on the state of democracy in Alberta. As discussed below, the Public Accounts Committee serves as one of the principal structures of holding governm...