Thursday, May 8

Intergovernmental

Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Pointless Vote- Opinion

Party National -Popular-Vote National- Seats Alberta- Popular Vote Alberta- Seats (2019) Liberals 32.4% 159 15.3% 2 (0) Conservatives 33.8 % 119 55.4% 30 (33) Bloc Quebecois 7.8 % 33 Not registered 0 Green Party 2.3% 2 0.9% 0 People's Party 5.1% 0 7.5 % 0 New Democrats 17.7% 25 19.0% 2 (1) Maverick Party 0.2%   0 1.3% 0 After 36 days of political blustering, Canadians learned "the morning after" there will be another minority government led by Justin Trudeau's Liberals. At 12 noon on 26 September MT Elections Canada shows the Liberals leading in 159 seats, the Conservatives at 119, Bloc at 33 seats, NDP at 25 and the Green Party with two candidates leading/elected.  National Vote In the popular vote, the Tories lead at 33.7 per cent followed by the Liberals at 32.6...
Agencies, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

GOA’s investment in Keystone XL looks shaky

Updated 25 January 2021 to reflect Kenney-Trudeau letter It was perhaps a foregone conclusion that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would sign an executive order soon after his inauguration rescinding the permit allowing TC Energy to build the Keystone XL pipeline.  But hope springs eternal in some locales in Alberta. And yet, the heavily signalled order  sat on the newly -minted President's desk. Executive Order on "Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis," a lengthy discourse of executive actions, revoked the March 2019 Permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline. According to the Order  The Keystone XL pipeline disserves the U.S. national interest. The United States and the world face a climate crisis. That crisis must be met with action on a scale an...
Agencies, ATB, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Politics

2020- Best of, Worst of Times Year in Review

In this look-back at 2020, we summarize our thoughts and opinions on some of the key stories in 2020- news,  analysis and opinion by Abpolecon.ca. COVID-19 and a drastic drop in oil prices landed like a hammer on Alberta's economy and political landscape. News 28 February  Provincial Budget was full of optimism- little did we know. I raised the flag of what's Plan B? 31 March  On the final day of the 2019-20 fiscal year, the Alberta cabinet passed Order in Council 104/2020 which authorized the “President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance to make advances to or purchase securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.” Alberta taxpayers had bought a  stake in the Keystone XL  The Minister of Finance was authorized to borrow up to $2 billion "for th...
Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Fiscal and Economic Update- Analysis & Opinion

Slight improvement in deficit forecast for 2020-21 Recalibration of 3-year budget plan Balanced budget pushed further into future Fiscal anchors Ottawa's growing indebtedness and other grievances  Job Creation Tax Cut and cutting red tape expected to spur investment and employment Government stays with present course to resize spending Small hint about need to examine revenue structure On Tuesday 24 November, Finance Minister Travis Toews released the 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement. (Watch the Press Conference here.) There was a slight improvement in the deficit numbers in the First Quarter Fiscal Forecast - then the deficit was estimated to be $24.8 billion- now the Government expects a $21.3 billion deficit. Improvements came mainly on the revenue side with $1.4 b...
Peter Lougheed- Address to Calgary Chamber of Commerce- 13 March 1981
Energy, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Peter Lougheed- Address to Calgary Chamber of Commerce- 13 March 1981

Background From Lou Hyndman's papers, this speech is given to a friendly business audience at the height of the energy fight between Ottawa and ALberta. The parallels between 1980-81 and today are many, but there are considerable differences. In 1980-81, inflation was rampant over 10 per cent and interest rates had soared. Oil was trading at historic highs due to the 1979 Iranian revolution. The Alberta economy had enjoyed six straight years of boom conditions.  Unemployment was very low and cranes dotted Edmonton and Calgary's skylines. Joe Clark's administration had been dethroned and Pierre Trudeau was back in office.  Jimmy Carter had lost the presidency to Ronald Reagan and the rest of the world outside Alberta was spiralling into recession. The National Energy Program was an attack o...
Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report
Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s “Fair Deal” Report

Preston ManningSource: Government of Alberta   Whether you like Premier Jason Kenney or not, one must agree he has been a busy Premier.  A Premier who sets out a playbook and is following this platform. Whether you like his policy platform or not, he is a man on a mission to transform Alberta seemingly from the ground up. Reading daily news releases from the Government of Alberta, this government likes to claim “Promise Kept!” The Fair Deal page is a trove of information about the Government’s responses to the report (finalized before the Pandemic took hold) including recommendations underway, recommendations agreed to in principle, recommendations with support for further analysis, and recommendations that require modification. If anything, Premier Kenney is well organized and marchin...
Demographics, Employment, Intergovernmental

Heightened Political Anxiety Dec. 1980

During the fall of 1980, I had resumed my second year of doctoral studies in political science at the University of Alberta. It was my second autumn in Alberta. As earlier excerpts indicated, there was a considerable amount of anxiety in the political realm. Joe Clark's government had been defeated at the polls in February 1980. Pierre Elliott Trudeau returned with a renewed majority. Of course, the setting was post-National Energy Program, and Lougheed's cabinet had gone across the province soliciting feedback on their performance. This intelligence was put to good use as the Alberta government was feeling financially flush with oil royalties and general tax revenue. But Canadian and Alberta consumers were squeezed financially with sky-high short-term interest rates over 20 per ce...
Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980
Employment, Energy, Intergovernmental

Calm before the Storm- Provincial Archives 1980

Updated 25 June 2020 One of the most curious recommendations in the Fair Deal Report is section III which encourages “telling Alberta’s story.” This call to action urges the sharing of "common messages". The authors suggest that “transparent” civic society groups like municipalities, unions, companies, advocacy groups, non-profits and  "indeed, every citizen” have a "critical and essential voice" to tell Alberta’s story. However, this section includes the invocation to tell a story about Alberta’s “leading practices in the energy, agriculture, and forestry sectors and the full cost that Alberta’s failure would have on benefits currently shared by the country as a whole.” Critics would charge that the panel was pandering to enduring grievances accentuated by the volatile roller- coaster ...
Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie
Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...
Hyndman Papers
Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental

Hyndman Papers

Alberta's Contribution to Confederation circa 1980   In August 1980, Alberta intergovernmental relations were heating up as the earlier Mellon memo attested to. The National Energy Program was about two months away from release, a release that would fuel the flames of western separatism. Concerns were festering in Alberta about the cost-benefits of remaining in Confederation. In the Briefing Note below, authored by Treasury officials in the Fiscal Policy and Economic Analysis Division documented the inflows and outflows to and from the federal Treasury over a 16-year period. The Table below summarizes two tables from the paper- the cumulative totals for provinces and a combined B.C., Yukon, and North West Territories and the discounted cumulative totals. The information was derived...