Intergovernmental Archives

Is Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 4- ‘My fellow Albertans’

25May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Investment, Politics

Is Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 4- ‘My fellow Albertans’

“Separation, if necessary, but not necessarily separation” Introduction Premier Danielle Smith’s 5 May 2025 address followed by one week the Liberals’ near-majority re-election. Smith chose to deliver Her update on the ongoing war with “Ottawa.” “Ottawa” is code for the federal Liberal Party elite and is frequently used word to disparage the federal government. Smith used Ottawa 15 times in this address. Smith, ever the articulate, telegenic leader is a consummate communicator who has learned on the radio talk circuit as well during Her political career, didn't disappoint. She comes across as a voice of reason and the mainstream listener may not fully understand the underlying coded messages. In this analysis, I examine the text of Her address as well as watching/listening to...

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

4May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

Updated 3 May 2025 Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Explanatory comment I have been working on this question for the better part of three weeks spurred on my the concatenation of Her fiery speech to the Legislative Assembly on 26 March, Her attacks on Carney and the trip to PungurU and Ben Shapiro, revealed She was exploring the idea of independence ("from Ottawa) or statehood ("Texas of the North). As this blogs shows it is charitable to say Smith is "flirting" with separatism. It's doubtful there was that much open animosity between Ottawa and Quebec during 2 referenda. Smith's fiery speech might be compared to pre-Civil War missives from the south to Washingto...

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

30Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Background In a June 2023 article in The Conversation I raised the question “Will Danielle Smith veer back to the right and towards Alberta separatism?” At the time, a month after Smith’s United Conservative Party won the general election, I argued that Alberta had an economic and financial “ace in the hole”- Alberta’s vast export surplus driven by conventional and unconventional oil. Alberta separation would mean that Canadians' standard of living would drop significantly as would the Canadian dollar. I also noted that, unlike Quebec Inc., the ownership of Alberta’s fossil fuel-based economy is largely controlled by American financia...

23Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Premier Smith threatens national unity crisis- it’s about distraction

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. It has been a busy week since Mark Carney was elected Liberal Party leader and formed a government. Danielle Smith has used Carney’s recent and rapid rise as Liberal leader to set out conditions (see below) for either the new Liberal PM or a future CPC leader, Pierre Poilievre to meet. All of these demands are rooted in the goals of the oil and gas industry or the Take-Back-Alberta activists now controlling the United Conservative Party. Last week I canvassed Smith’s fusillade at newly sworn in PM Carney of 14 March. This past week she has continued her campaign to force federal political leaders to come on board to in effect ...

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. Alberta governments have a history of painting the federal government as a malevolent force. An early and legitimate beef was the lack of control and ownership of natural resources which wasn't rectified until 1930. Readers are familiar with the rise of the Social Credit movement and its five year fight over banking with the Dominion government. The most recent fight since today's skirmishes was the battle over provincial government power over the setting of resource pricing, commonly known as the National Energy Program, It is a canon of Alberta political science that successful premiers fight Ottawa. For an excellent note on western alienation/separatism...

6Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Politics

C-387 and the Alberta Pension Plan- Response from Finance Canada

Background Last summer, I wrote the following letter to the then Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Edmonton, Alberta T6C 4R1 12 August 2024 The Honorable Chrystia Freeland, P.C., M.P. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Member for Parliament, Toronto University-Rosedale Ottawa, Ontario Canada K1A 0A6 Dear Ms. Freeland Re. Bill C-387 In the last sitting of the House of Commons, M.P. Heather McPherson, M.P. for Edmonton Strathcona tabled an important private member’s Bill C-387 which would limit the exclusive authority of the Minister responsible for administering the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Governor in Council from allowing a province to withdraw from the pension plan. This exclusive executive authority under sect...

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

11Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

Updated 11 November 2024 On Thursday 7 November, the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner finally said “enough is enough” for the status quo at the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Minister cited “significant increases in operating costs, management fees and staffing without a corresponding increase to return on investment” including rising staff salary and benefit costs. Horner properly asked the question” why are we paying remarkably high salaries when the organization was not delivering higher returns?” Also identified were rising staffing costs alongside rising external fees. The whole concept of AIMCo was to bring in house expertise and thereby drive down external fees. Horner also removed the 10-member board (this URL was s...

Democracy in Alberta – Continued- Opinion

31May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Democracy in Alberta – Continued- Opinion

I commend to readers the article by Elizabeth Smythe, my former intergovernmental colleague in Wednesday’s Edmonton Journal. Opeds by Dr. Smythe and Jared Wesley in The Tyee are honest attempts by political scientists to do what they are trained for- to provide objectively-based warnings about how fragile our democratic institutions have become. Recent moves by the Smith government to smother dissent in municipal councils is another worrying sign (Bills 18 and 20). As Wesley states in the Tyee "There’s no hard-and-fast line between democracy and authoritarianism. Just ask people from autocracies: you don’t simply wake up one day under arbitrary rule." A 30-minute interview between Jared and I can be found at this link The State of Democracy in Alberta- A conversa...

The State of Democracy in Alberta- A conversation with Jared Wesley

18May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Intergovernmental, Politics

The State of Democracy in Alberta- A conversation with Jared Wesley

On 6 May, Professor Jared Wesley wrote a piece in The Tyee about the dangers of creeping authoritarianism in Alberta. I reached out to Wesley last week to invite him to chat with me about this threat. We talked on Thursday 16 May. What I particularly liked about his online piece was both warning of the dangers of creeping authoritarianism and the need for citizens to raise their voices about questionable overreach by the provincial government in number of areas discussed in the interview. In “Why the UCP is a Threat to Democracy“ Professor Wesley lists four key traits or pillar values of democratic societies – 1. Rule of law; 2. Checks and Balances; 3. Electoral integrity; and 4. Distribution of power. He then proceeds to define key attributes of these pillars and where these values or...