Government Finances Archives - Page 7 of 12

20Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Budget 2022- Alberta’s Fiscal Dilemma

Updated 24 February Opinion Alberta’s budget context is favorable right now with oil prices at just over $90 U.S. a barrel. A budget surplus, based on resource revenue, is widely expected for fiscal 2022-23. Alberta employment is back to the pre-pandemic levels. (I may have given the GOA the benefit of the doubt here. The December 2021 Statistics Canada Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies revealed Alberta payroll employment "had not yet reached pre-COVID levels in December 2021 (-34,400; -1.7%)," This survey can be a better gauge than the Labour Force Survey which is notoriously volatile. Kenney’s balanced budget approach to hold spending constant or reduce spending has been "rewarded" with the inevitable rebound of Alberta's oil and gas-dependent economy. I...

9Jan

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta’s Revenue Options: Presentation to Association of Retired University Professors, U of A

Presentation On Thursday, 6 January I was invited to make a presentation on what the province's revenue options were going into the next budget. Provincial budgets by law must be presented before the end of each February. The presentation generated a great deal of discussion which will be touched on below. The PDF of presentation can be found at the foot of this article. The purpose of the discussion was to stimulate an exchange of ideas concerning what future Alberta governments might do to raise more revenue. I began by defining what I saw as the problem. The first problem is the Alberta government's over-reliance on resource royalties to fund its spending. The second issue is that Alberta has not achieved a budgetary surplus without resource revenue since at least 1965. The first ch...

31Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics, Rural

2021 Top Stories

Politics During 2021 Alberta’s political oxygen was consumed almost entirely with COVID-19- a topic Abpolecon.ca kept in the background. The third, fourth (Delta) and fifth (Omicron) waves rolled over the province and Kenney’s government was consistently found wanting. Not only was 2021 defined by the premier’s mishandling of COVID - the “best summer ever” but the NDP consistently out fund-raised the UCP. On top of these failures was a sexual harassment suit, an ill-timed UCP Christmas reception, and 22 constituency associations demanding the leadership review be bumped up to March (the effort was denied by the party Executive). By September Kenney was regarded as a “dead man walking.” In December, former Wildrose leader and UCP leadership contestant Brian Jean resurfaced as UCP candidat...

17Dec

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

Can AIMCo be Fixed? (2)- Kenney redefines the pension bargain

Updated 23 December 2021 Hear interview between Bob Ascah and Shaye Ganam here. Read the 21 December 2021 Edmonton Journal opinion piece by Bob Ascah. Premier Kenney made some new policy pronouncements about the Alberta government's liability with respect to public sector pensions at yesterday's Omicron press conference. His response to a Globe and Mail reporter's question (minute 47) must be a shock to Finance Minister Toews' and belies over 20-years of government policy to disengage Alberta taxpayers' liability from the unfunded liabilities for public sector pensions. If not walked back, it may have some influence over the province's credit rating. James Keller The Globe and Mail. This is going way, way off topic. The Parkland Institute put out a report today on AIMCo with a lo...

16Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment

Can AIMCo be Fixed?

On Wednesday, the Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta released my study Can AIMCo be Fixed? Key findings and recommendations of the study were: AIMCo is one of the most significant provincial agencies in Alberta- its importance is central to the financial security of nearly 500,000 people Since a pension is intended to provide financial security in retirement- any behavior by government, the asset manager or pension boards which undermines security or creates uncertainty erodes trust which is foundational to the pension bargain. AIMCo’s investment performance has, since its inception, been mediocre and recent poor returns contributes to the erosion of the trust. The ownership structure of AIMCo must be changed- AIMCo’s sole owner today is the Government of Alberta even thoug...

15Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Employment, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan appears to be taking off

The past ten-days has seen a flurry of announcements from Premier Kenney, his Jobs, Economy and Innovation minister Doug Schweitzer, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity- Dale Nally, and Finance Minister Travis Toews. Kenney, in all these announcements, was centre stage and answering inquiries from the media. Hydrogen Roadmap The first announcement on 6 November was the unveiling of a hydrogen strategy. Hydrogen, especially “blue hydrogen,” is now seen as having the potential of an oilsands-like boom. According to Kenney: “With a global market estimated to be worth $2.5 trillion a year by 2050, hydrogen could be Alberta’s next great energy opportunity. Alberta has been a global leader in responsible energy production for decades, and now we’re ready to apply that leadership t...

29Sep

By Bob Ascah4 Comments

Demographics, Government Finances, Intergovernmental

What would Withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan Mean to Albertans?

By Ellen Nygaard and Virendra Gupta, Edmonton, AB, October 2021 The United Conservative Party (UCP) government, shortly after taking office in 2019, created a panel to consider whether Albertans are getting a “fair deal” as part of Canada. One of its assignments was whether Alberta should withdraw from Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and create its own pension plan, taking our portion of assets and liabilities from the Canada Pension Plan and running a pension plan for Alberta workers. The Panel recommended that the Government: “Develop a comprehensive plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan and withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan. Subsequently, provide Albertans the opportunity, via a referendum, to vote for or against withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan and creating the Alberta Pens...

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Fiscal Outlook brightens

Fiscal Outlook Brightens The first quarter fiscal and economic update was released on 31 August. Alberta's projected deficit for fiscal 2021-22 has brightened considerably due to bitumen revenue (+$5.6 billion) and stronger investment revenue (+$1.1 billion). The government's message was "Alberta's Recovery Plan is working." The main drivers for the improved performance were revenue although spending is now expected to increase by $567-million driven by health care (+$400-million), drought relief (+$400 million) and agriculture support (+$340-million) some offset by the confusing practice of using contingency and unallocated numbers. Lower debt servicing costs were assisted by low interest rates and the significant decrease in projected borrowing as a result of the improved deficit numbe...

11Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Nurses- Poised to Strike?

Soon after Finance Minister Travis Toews announced a $17-billion deficit, on 6 July he fired a warning shot at the United Nurses of Alberta. While acknowledging nurses’ contributions to responding to the COVID-19 health crisis (“working diligently throughout”), the News release stressed “the important work of getting the province’s finances back on track.” The terse release reiterated the gist of the MacKinnon Report’s recommendations that for Alberta to rebalance its finances it must cut both the size of the public service as well as bring salaries and benefits in line with other provinces. According to Toews, nurses in Alberta get paid 5.6 per cent more than other comparator provinces (presumably B.C., Quebec and Ontario). This differential costs the Alberta taxpayers an extra $141-mill...

10Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Government Finances

Budget Deficit “falls” to $17 billion

Highlights Deficit up significantly from Budget 2020 due to COVID-19 and oil price drop but lower that first quarter forecast due to rising oil prices in final fiscal quarter (January-March 2021). Government takes a $1.3-billion write-down of its investment in TC Energy’s Keystone XL pipeline. Education spending significantly lower than budget (4 %) and from last year (4.9 %). Total revenues were $6.8-billion lower than budget while federal transfers $1.5-billion higher than last year. Dark spots- government investments- Keystone XL, oil-by-rail contracts, and the Sturgeon refinery. Finance Minister Toews released the Province’s annual financial report on Wednesday 30 June. In his press release he emphasized the “notable fiscal gains made in (the) final months of 2020-21.” It was an upb...