Government Finances Archives - Page 7 of 11

4Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Fiscal Outlook brightens

Fiscal Outlook Brightens The first quarter fiscal and economic update was released on 31 August. Alberta's projected deficit for fiscal 2021-22 has brightened considerably due to bitumen revenue (+$5.6 billion) and stronger investment revenue (+$1.1 billion). The government's message was "Alberta's Recovery Plan is working." The main drivers for the improved performance were revenue although spending is now expected to increase by $567-million driven by health care (+$400-million), drought relief (+$400 million) and agriculture support (+$340-million) some offset by the confusing practice of using contingency and unallocated numbers. Lower debt servicing costs were assisted by low interest rates and the significant decrease in projected borrowing as a result of the improved deficit numbe...

11Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Nurses- Poised to Strike?

Soon after Finance Minister Travis Toews announced a $17-billion deficit, on 6 July he fired a warning shot at the United Nurses of Alberta. While acknowledging nurses’ contributions to responding to the COVID-19 health crisis (“working diligently throughout”), the News release stressed “the important work of getting the province’s finances back on track.” The terse release reiterated the gist of the MacKinnon Report’s recommendations that for Alberta to rebalance its finances it must cut both the size of the public service as well as bring salaries and benefits in line with other provinces. According to Toews, nurses in Alberta get paid 5.6 per cent more than other comparator provinces (presumably B.C., Quebec and Ontario). This differential costs the Alberta taxpayers an extra $141-mill...

10Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Government Finances

Budget Deficit “falls” to $17 billion

Highlights Deficit up significantly from Budget 2020 due to COVID-19 and oil price drop but lower that first quarter forecast due to rising oil prices in final fiscal quarter (January-March 2021). Government takes a $1.3-billion write-down of its investment in TC Energy’s Keystone XL pipeline. Education spending significantly lower than budget (4 %) and from last year (4.9 %). Total revenues were $6.8-billion lower than budget while federal transfers $1.5-billion higher than last year. Dark spots- government investments- Keystone XL, oil-by-rail contracts, and the Sturgeon refinery. Finance Minister Toews released the Province’s annual financial report on Wednesday 30 June. In his press release he emphasized the “notable fiscal gains made in (the) final months of 2020-21.” It was an upb...

27Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Banks, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Hyndman Papers- ATB and the chartered banks

In the following correspondence between the Provincial Treasurer and TD-Bank's vice-president of the Alberta South Division, a longstanding complaint by the chartered banks about unfair competition from Alberta Treasury Branches (ATB) is revealed. Backdrop In the late 1970s, the North American economy faced surging inflation rates in the low teens and Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Paul Volcker was determined to drive the economy into recession by imposing high interest rates. The Bank of Canada, led by Gerald Bouey followed suit and Canada's bank rate approached 20 per cent. Inevitably, heavily indebted famers, home buyers, and businesses appealed to various orders of government to shield them from the effects of high interest rates. As the correspondence reveals, Alberta's Treasurer ha...

13Jun

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Agencies, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Exploring the Regulatory Maze (3): The Auditor General Reports…

The bizarre story of the Mine Financial Security program (MFSP) continues to unfold. In May, the Minister of the Environment and Parks, Jason Nixon announced a review of the program noting depressed profits in 2020 motivated the government to reset the rules in calculating security requirements. This meant that increased security requirements under the existing requirement would be reduced. Then on 10 June, Auditor General Doug Wylie released a report which focused on processes to provide information about government's environmental liabilities. The report unfortunately raises serious questions about the competencies of provincial officials at all levels as well as the failure of senior officials and ministers to accept responsibility for environmental cleanups. Wylie’s report addres...

30May

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Energy, Environment, Government Finances

International Energy Agency- Bombshell Report

Until about five years ago the International Energy Agency was beholden to Big Oil. It is no more. Its blockbuster report dropped on an unsuspecting world on 18 May raises deep questions about Big Oil’s survival much past the next decade. The report of 223 pages entitled Net Zero by 2050- A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, contains four main chapters, four appendices, and six pages of references. With ESG investing in ascendance, Alberta’s regulatory system of setting security requirements broken, now there is considerable doubt that long-term bitumen reserves have the value they once had.. The IEA volume is organized in four parts: implications of country’s net-zero pledges; global pathway to net-zero CO2 emissions in in 2050; sectoral pathways to net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050; and...

20May

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Credit Ratings, Government Finances

S&P downgrades Alberta to A (Stable) Moody’s maintains Aa3 rating

Citing COVID-19 and budgetary balances which have not "yet recovered from the slump in oil prices that began in 2014, to a greater degree than we had expected," S&P Global Ratings downgraded Alberta's long-term credit rating to A from A+. Today Moody's issued a release noting the completion of a periodic review of Alberta's ratings. No change to the rating was initiated. S&P Global Ratings There really wasn’t anything newsworthy in yesterday's downgrade announcement. The agency noted that Alberta’s after-capital deficits, that is Revenue less operating and capital expenses is the “largest of any local and regional government in the country this fiscal year and last” resulting in the one-notch downgrade. Of concern was a deterioration of liquidity: “free cash and investment balance...

11Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Budget 1982-83: A Message not sent

During the fall of 1981, Peter Lougheed's government was facing stagnant government revenue and, at the same time, pressing demands for additional spending during a time of historically high interest rates and rising unemployment. This memorandum, which was not sent, reflects the Treasurer's and Alberta Treasury's worries that spending was spiraling beyond the limits set by the Priorities Committee. This was an era when the notion that spending reductions really entailed reductions from what was being requested or needed or expected in light of inflation and population growth. This was an era where the capacity to raise revenue and the capacity to spend was bifurcated. At the federal level the position of Treasury Board President and Finance Minister was coincident with rising deficits, ...

28Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

The Perils of Economic Forecasting in a Commodity-based Economy

In the wake of the "energy settlement" of August 1981 when Trudeau and Lougheed toasted champagne, economists at Alberta Treasury's Budget Planning and Economics group were refreshing their economic forecasts. In the Economic Outlook reproduced below, attention focused on the anticipated mega-projects expected to drive Alberta's economy in the medium term. The Outlook reinforces the notion of Alberta as a single-commodity based economy relying on the construction and engineering sectors to drive economic growth and employment. As the Chart shows, things did not turn out quite what the analysts have thought they would based on econometric models based upon assumptions about the trajectory of various mega-projects. Very shortly after the projection, an inflection point was reached in 1982 ...

28Feb

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances

Alberta Budget 2021-Analysis

Highlights Economic assumptions on balance appear realistic with some upside Spending kept flat mainly through cuts to ministries except Health, K-12 Education, and Social Services Capital spending to remain elevated although next two years see a significant reduction. No new taxes or tax increases- nothing on revenue structure review Debt levels will rise to close to government’s fiscal anchor Economic Assumptions The Government seems to be following the playbook from Ralph Klein's early years in leading the province out of what had been chronic deficits. Conservative resource revenue forecasts based on past history rather than hoped-for future prices helped return the provincial government to balance quickly. These conservative revenue forecasts restrained the public and v...