Government Finances Archives - Page 5 of 12

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

11Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

After a decade of seeing its credit rating fall steadily from the coveted triple AAA rating to AA3, surging oil revenues have again lifted Alberta’s credit rating. Nature of credit ratings Credit ratings do matter to all governments which borrow on international and domestic capital markets. There is so much debt in the world that for large bond buying desks their analysts cannot focus on every credit in detail. These institutional investors count on rating agencies to undertake thorough, in some cases almost forensic work, to assure large institutional investors- think Vanguard, Swiss RE, J.P Morgan and the CPPIB- that the risks they are managing, including default risk, are fully understood and the debt/credit portfolios have risk limits understood by the bond buyers.. Credit ratings a...

22Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Lougheed letter publicizes the Alberta Oil and Gas Activity Plan- Summer 1982

This remarkable letter demonstrates how falling oil prices rang alarm bells in the Alberta government and was very much the result the effect of very high interest rates in North America driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve board and not the National Energy Program.. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS The above graph shows what governments and corporations were watching with alarm as the Fed would move rates up and down with rates nearing 20 per cent followed by a harsh recession which crippled America's auto business, At that time the auto business, like it still is today, is really a financing business based on lending on the security of these American cars. Crippling interest rates discouraged buyers and therefore oil prices. In addition, discerning American drivers were turn...

15Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Uncategorized

Hyndman Papers- Speech to Alberta Municipalities- 1982

Excerpt from Speech to Alberta Municipal Districts & Counties (pp. 12-16) (Undated- likely late November 1982 after 2 November 1982 provincial election) The following speech given by Peter Lougheed in November 1982 set the stage for the Alberta government's post election Alberta Economic Resurgence Program. (The PDF of the excerpt of the speech in below) The speech is notable as signaling the government's intention to restrain government spending and holding public sector wage costs to below the private speech. His language was unusually blunt to this gathering of Alberta's municipal councilors, reeves, and mayors. Crucial to the financing of the resurgence program was a return to direct borrowing of the province- a rare event in the post-war period- and tapping all investment incom...

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

9Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Issues to follow in 2023- Analysis and Opinion- Part 2

Corrected 9 January 2023 Sovereignty Act applications- before the election? The application of the Sovereignty Act before the May provincial general election has a lot of moving parts. The Act came into force on 15 December, the date of royal assent. At present Premier Smith is constructing the case along with her finance minister Travis Toews and jobs and economic development minister Brian Jean of a competent government managing finances prudently and attracting investment. In a “Special Economic Report” sent out to UCP supporters on 7 January the Premier highlights that under her leadership 41,500 full time jobs were added in December, most from the private sector. The communication reminds Albertans that they enjoy the highest wages in Canada and the lowest taxes. On the fi...

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

5Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

Between the first quarter update at the end of August and the mid-year update of November 25th? a new premier took charge. In the tbf-2022-23-first-quarter (as its PDF is known) the province expected to collect $75.9 billion in revenue. In tbf-2022-23-mid-year total revenue is $76.9 billion. The Mid-term Update was called “Strong economy, strong Alberta” equating Alberta to economy. The press conference video is here. Spending Spending has increased from $62.1-billion in the 2022 Budget, including COVID-19 recovery spending, to $64.7-billion in the fiscal update or by $2.6-billion. Increased spending comes from $300-million in electricity rebates, “affordability initiatives” of $1.2-billion, $308 million for higher costs of selling oil, $340 million for Health including $174 million for th...

Despite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage

4Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Investment

Despite soaring profits, oil companies are not paying enough for their environmental damage

Published: December 1, 2022 1.55pm EST from the Conversation with permission. Re-published in newspaper edition of The Globe and Mail, Alberta section, on 17 December 2022 and online at Winnipeg Free Press on 2 December 2022. Re-published in The Tyee on 11 January 2023 At the end of the third quarter reporting season in October, the Big Four oilsands producers continued to report record profit levels. Collectively, Cenovus, CNRL, Imperial Oil and Suncor earned $5.8 billion in the third quarter and $23.1 billion in the first nine months of 2022. The average return on capital during the period was almost 25 per cent. The only minor hiccup was Suncor’s reported loss — primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge of $3.4 billion against its Fort Hills assets. Despite the write-down, Suncor s...

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta PST- ESNA presentation

On Friday 21 October 2022, I made a presentation, along with two collaborators Ian Glassford and Elizabeth Smythe to the Economics Society of Northern Alberta on A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published in June by Athabasca University Press. Here is the link to the Youtube channel of ESNA. Below are my slides for the presentation. Much of the question and answer session had much to do with the question of whether personal income tax is essentially a tax on consumption and why would you need to add another sales tax which is not progressive, unlike the personal income tax. Of course the progressivity of personal income tax is debatable given the vast number of specific credit and treatments on savings instruments which disproportionately benefit the well-off. The...

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

PST- the Political Suicide Tax

Updated 12 October 2022 Above- Interview with Bob Ascah- Mornings 630 CHED- Provincial Sales Tax- 11 October 2022. The following article is reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) which was published Tuesday, 4 October 2022. In this article I make the now familiar plea to Alberta politicians to stop the roller coaster of provincial finances by bringing in a provincial sales tax. As the article explains Albertans have become used to paying low taxes while enjoying good or in some cases superior public goods and services than other provinces' citizens. However the "Alberta Tax Advantage" has a darker side. It has produced a hard core of politicians, business groups. and citizens who hate taxes, especially a sales tax. This type of magical thinking has produced...

29Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Government Finances, Health, Intergovernmental, Investment, Opinion/Research

The UCP Front-runners- Policy Analysis

In this analysis I compare both the slogans and key phrases of the candidates. Slogans and phrases which are meant to attract members to vote for their preferred candidate and some of the detail of their top policy priorities. I also drill down to examine three policy areas in more detail. At the time of publication Danielle Smith is the presumed frontrunner with Travis Toews second and Brian Jean third. High level slogans compared According to Danielle Smith’s “Alberta First” campaign she will: Free Alberta from Ottawa’s control; Protect the rights and freedoms of Albertans; Unleash our economic potential and restore the Alberta Advantage, and Defeat Rachel Notley and the NDP in the next election Travis Toews promises responsible, stable leadership and promises to unite ...

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How Book Launch

24Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How Book Launch

This past Thursday a book launch took place at the University Club to celebrate the publication of A Sales Tax for Alberta. Below are my speaking notes and pictures from this celebration. Speaking Notes- Book Launch Book launch A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How University Club, Edmonton 22 September 2022 My friends, the journey has not ended, it is just beginning! An inflated ego drove this project in the vain hope that we might convince one courageous politician to choose to take on this controversial project - a sales tax for Alberta. There are so many who helped this book across the goal line providing support and thoughtful feedback. First to my wife Linda who has been both a catalyst and huge support through what became a longer journey than expected. The initial germinatio...