Financial Institutions Archives

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...

28Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

Canada’s Chief Actuary reports on CPP withdrawal

On Friday 20 December, Canada’s Chief Actuary Assia Billig released a report on the withdrawal formula under section 113(2) the Canada Pension Plan Act. Billig emphasized that “throughout this process my office has acted with independence and impartiality. These two factors are foundational elements to my role as the Chief Actuary.” Background The report was requested by a committee of officials representing ministers of finance as a result of the 23 September announcement of the Smith government they would begin an engagement process based on the Lifeworks (consulting actuary) report’s interpretation of section 113(2) (see below). As part of the $7-million pension roll-out, Premier Smith has claimed that Albertans won’t be asked to decide a referendum question without a number. ...

18Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

Why AIMCo needs more scrutiny and transparency- Part 3

Introduction In Parts 1 and 2 of this series I examined the weaknesses in AIMCo’s reporting on its investments. With the recent news about the firing of AIMCo’s board, CEO, the CEO’s chief of staff, the Chief Legal Officer, and the head of human resources, it is incumbent for the government to clearly demonstrate that it has no intention of bringing AIMCo more closely under the direction of politicians. One measure the government could adopt is to appoint representatives of the major pension plans to the AIMCo board. That representation would mean those sitting on the board would have some “skin in the game;” that is their clients’ interests would be better aligned with AIMCo’s interest. The recent appointment of Alberta’s deputy finance minister gives some say in AIMCo’s operations as...

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

11Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Government finally decides to shake up AIMCo- is more politicization on the agenda?

Updated 11 November 2024 On Thursday 7 November, the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner finally said “enough is enough” for the status quo at the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Minister cited “significant increases in operating costs, management fees and staffing without a corresponding increase to return on investment” including rising staff salary and benefit costs. Horner properly asked the question” why are we paying remarkably high salaries when the organization was not delivering higher returns?” Also identified were rising staffing costs alongside rising external fees. The whole concept of AIMCo was to bring in house expertise and thereby drive down external fees. Horner also removed the 10-member board (this URL was s...

21Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith and the Free Alberta Strategy- An assessment

Overview and Context Premier Danielle Smith has been in office for 19 months and provides an opportunity to evaluate how Smith is proceeding in implementing the Free Alberta Strategy (FAS). I found that many boxes have been checked by the premier but her biggest test is ahead- how to prevent the federal from weakening Alberta's largest industry in its bid to lower CO2 and other emissions. Smith is closely associated with one of the FAS authors, Rob Anderson. Rob Anderson is now the Executive Director of the Office of the Premier which places him at the apex of policy-making in Alberta. His acquaintance with Smith goes back to at least 2010 when, as a former Progressive Conservative (Airdrie -Chestermere), he crossed over to join the Wildrose Alliance party becoming deputy leader. In...

Alberta Pension Plan- conversation with retired professors at UofA

6Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Economic Data, Employment, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Pension Plan- conversation with retired professors at UofA

I was excited to present to retired professors from the University of Alberta last Thursday my views on the marketing campaign by the Alberta government to "engage" the public on the supposed benefits of an Alberta pension plan. My focus was on the political messaging. The Youtube video can be viewed here. The political messaging created by the Government of Alberta is an expensive communications effort (close to $10-million of Albertans’ tax dollars). The friendly website "Alberta Pension Plan" begins with “What’s in it for you.” The web page design is classically an appeal to Albertans’ sense of place and community with pictures of the Rockies and foothills and wistful pictures of a handsome seniors’ couple. The pitch focuses mainly on the benefits that would be supposed...

An Alberta Pension Plan- Thoughts, Ideas, Experiments -Episode 6 with Trevor Tombe, Virendra Gupta and Ellen Nygaard

26Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Demographics, Economic Data, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

An Alberta Pension Plan- Thoughts, Ideas, Experiments -Episode 6 with Trevor Tombe, Virendra Gupta and Ellen Nygaard

Background On September 21st Premier Danielle Smith, Finance Minister Nate Horner and former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning gave a press conference about an Alberta Pension Plan. There were two features of the conference- first the public release of a long-anticipated report from actuarial and consulting firm Lifeworks. The second aspect of the release was the announcement of what is being called an engagement panel led by former Treasurer Jim Dinning. Dinning served under Ralph Klein and then contested unsuccessfully the PC leadership in 2006. Jim Dinning was Alberta Treasurer when CPP reforms were undertaken Source: Calgary Herald At the news conference Dinning said this about the idea of an Alberta Pension Plan (APP)- ”it could be a game changer for the financial ...

An Alberta Pension Plan (APP): Your Plan, Their Choice

24Sep

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Agencies, Demographics, Financial Institutions, Opinion/Research, Politics

An Alberta Pension Plan (APP): Your Plan, Their Choice

Updated 25 September 2023 Updated 30 September 2023 “This report shows a made-in-Alberta pension plan could put more money in the pockets of hard-working families and business owners and improve retirement security for seniors. We want to hear from you because it’s your pension, your choice. I’m so excited to hear what Albertans think about a provincial pension plan that could benefit Albertans now as well as our future generations.” Danielle Smith, Premier In this post I critically examine the upcoming battle between the UCP state, business organizations, and Alberta sovereigntists versus a labour -NDP coalition led opposition of concerned seniors and worried CPP contributors. First, I begin referencing the debate over the past two days and then investigate the central politi...

Watching and Weathering the Withering Rise in Interest Rates

24Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Economic Data, Financial Institutions, Government Finances

Watching and Weathering the Withering Rise in Interest Rates

Last Thursday I was invited to present some thoughts about the impact of rising of interest rates to the weekly KEI Webinar. The recording can be found here. There was an engaging conversation afterwards which touched on the recent banking crisis, crypto-currencies, government deficits, prospects for a global recession, performance of central banks particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the future of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Some humour was intended to be inserted with a showing of the famous Two Johns- Bird and Fortune on the Subprme Crisis The following text are speaking notes which were loosely followed. All date is from the Federal Reserve Board website. "Well thank you Perry for inviting me to provide some commentary around the impact...

21Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Banks, Credit Ratings, Financial Institutions

A Run on the Banking System?

Over the weekend, I turned my attention to rapidly evolving financial fissures, fissures which may portend another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The earthquake's tremors began over a week ago when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) tried to raise 2 billion dollars US in new equity. Quickly, investors asked why this was necessary and large depositors ran for the exits. SVB's broad tentacles through California's tech sector brought more pressure as tech companies and wealthy individuals sought the exits. It was the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. On Monday 13 March it was announced that the Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would lead a a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, SVB's problems stemmed from a bad decision last year to invest...