Monday, December 23

Energy

22Nov By Bob AscahNo Comments
Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Politics

Where is Brian Jean? Alberta Energy and Mines Minister Missing in Action

Updated 2 December 2023 I receive about two to three dozen emails from the Government of Alberta news service (Alberta.ca/News) each week. These emails keep me up to speed with what is going on with the Government of Alberta. Perhaps half of these releases are not  significant recognizing special holidays or special days or weeks that government ministers or departments wish to acknowledge.  Some are for junkets of MLAs travelling to various conferences.  Perhaps 10 per cent are substantive and feature the premier and the relevant minister issuing statements which are picked up by the media.  Many coincide with major news conferences such as the recent one on health care reforms. Most unusual these past six months has been the virtual non-presence of the Minister of Energy and Mi...
Read More
16Nov By Bob AscahNo Comments
Economic Data, Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta 5, Ottawa 2- Re. Impact Assessment Act (Part 2)

Before turning to the dissenting opinion, it may be instructive to note some of the key points made by the Alberta Court of Appeal (ABCA) in their 10 May 2022 reference decision. The reference opinion may be found at CanLit. ABCA Majority In the majority ABCA opinion, considerable space was devoted to the history, purpose and scope, of the section 92A resource amendment (paras 74-83).  The majority contended Provincial governments should not be faulted for focussing their attention on matters important to their citizens. That includes not only the environment but also the economy. It is a false dichotomy to suggest that the two are mutually exclusive. Without a strong economy, a province’s ability to respond to the needs of its citizens, including meeting the challenges of climate chang...
Read More
Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 5- Ruben Nelson
21Aug By Bob AscahNo Comments
Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Politics, Society

Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments- Alberta 2023 Conversation with thought leaders Episode 5- Ruben Nelson

In the fifth of the Ideas, Thoughts, Experiments Alberta 2023 series, I talked with Alberta futurist Ruben Nelson the day after the 29 May provincial election results. In this wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Nelson speaks eloquently about the problems faced by our modern industrial-technological society and the notion of societies being “future takers.” And being a future taker means that you need to seriously understand the situation you're in and with a good deal of humility come to terms with the forces that are shaping your future whether you like it or not. And it seems to me that Alberta, in those term, Alberta is not a humble place (emphasis added). Role of Culture According to Nelson, Alberta is culturally very different than other provinces because Europeans did not arrive in any l...
Read More
28Mar By Bob AscahNo Comments
Budget, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Solutions-based policy development and Some Modest Recommendations

There are major issues confronting Alberta- a massive understatement if there ever was!   As a student, practitioner, and teacher of public policy for over 40 years, the following ideas are in a germination phase and readers are encouraged to comment and add their suggestions on the central germ of this idea. A solutions-based approach to government policy-making offers a means of identifying a small number of “problems” which require immediate attention and on which there is a consensus on the need for action. This approach starts with Problem identification. The government’s prerogative, but our current government arguably sees things much differently than a majority of Albertans- (e.g. the visceral hate of the federal government as represented by Mr. Trudeau.) In this blogpost, I set o...
Read More
Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?
2Sep By Bob Ascah1 Comment
Energy, Energy, Opinion/Research

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?

Updated 14 September 2022 The question of the influence of the oil industry on Alberta's political economy and democracy has been a longstanding question for Alberta political analysts. Kevin Taft's 2017 book Oil Deep State and Ian Urquhart's 2018 Costly Fix are classic reference texts. In the following article, reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) I use public finance data, corporate reports, and production data to estimate the impact of rising oil prices on the province's finances. As oilsands production has eclipsed conventional oil production and as ownership of the oilsands have increasingly become concentrated in four large companies, the implications for Alberta's tenuous democracy are obvious. This influence will be one of the great challenges...
Read More
22May By Bob AscahNo Comments
Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Alberta 4- Canada 1: Alberta Court of Appeal on the Impact Assessment Act

On 10 May Alberta's Court of Appeal provided an opinion on reference questions from the Alberta government concerning the validity of the federal Impact Assessment Act or, as Premier Kenney prefers to call it, the "no pipelines law." Background .  On 9 September 2019 Alberta's cabinet authorized the Alberta Court of Appeal to consider two questions.  These were: Is Part 1 of An Act to enact the Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act, to amend the Navigation Protection Act and to make consequential amendments to other Acts, S.C. 2019, c. 28, unconstitutional in whole or in part, as being beyond the legislative authority of the Parliament of Canada under the Constitution of Canada?  Is the Physical Activities Regulations, SOR/2019-285, unconstitutional in whole or in pa...
Read More
8Mar By Bob Ascah2 Comments
Energy, Government Finances

Energy company shareholders getting paid back after years of famine

In this post, I examine the dividend streams of the four major oilsands producers as well as other major producers of oil and natural gas. The PDF figures which follow indicate the dividends paid or declared by 18 of Canada's largest oil and gas producers over the last 10 or so years. Overall there was a notable drop in dividends paid beginning in 2016, about one year after the significant plunge in oil prices.  Beginning in late 2020, with a recovery in oil prices, there has been a significant increase in dividends going to shareholders. Up until 2021 oil and gas shareholders suffered capital losses on the prices of their shares.  Those investors that sold their shares at significant losses are regretting the rebound in oil and gas company shares.  Logos of the Big Four ...
Read More
1Mar By Bob AscahNo Comments
Budget, Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Budget 2022- Analysis and Opinion

The Alberta government’s recent budget reveals- once again- the provincial treasury’s over-dependence on non renewable resource revenue. This budget continues a six-decade tradition of resource revenue making up for a deficient, unstable revenue base to produce budget balance. However, as the chart below illustrates Alberta has never had a budgetary surplus, when excluding resource revenues since 1965-66.  The surplus targets for fiscal years 2022-25 also produce the same results.  This year, Albertans are expected to only contribute 78 cents on the dollar to Alberta’s expected revenues. If oil persists at an average of $90 U.S. per barrel over the whole fiscal year beginning  April 1, then an extra $10-billion will be received meaning taxpayers will only foot 59 per cent of the bills. C...
Read More
27Feb By Bob AscahNo Comments
Budget, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2022: the 2023 election begins

Analysis and Opinion On Thursday afternoon, 24 February Travis Toews tabled his fourth budget. From the standpoint of the United Conservative Party, the budget was an unadulterated triumph. Sure, higher oil prices had something to do with the anticipated surplus in 2022-23 ("a traffic cone could balance Alberta's budget," NDP opposition leader Rachel Notley proclaimed before the speech). admitted Toews to interviewers, but other revenue sources were healthier.   By sticking to the fiscal plan as outlined in September 2019 by the MacKinnon panel, the government had done the hard lifting of keeping expenses from growing and attracting investment and Albertans were now reaping the fiscal and economic rewards. In this post, I examine the budget address of Toews, its key messages and its impli...
Read More