Wednesday, April 2

Energy

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?
Energy, Energy, Opinion/Research

Is Oil sands consolidation a threat to Alberta Democracy?

Updated 14 September 2022 The question of the influence of the oil industry on Alberta's political economy and democracy has been a longstanding question for Alberta political analysts. Kevin Taft's 2017 book Oil Deep State and Ian Urquhart's 2018 Costly Fix are classic reference texts. In the following article, reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) I use public finance data, corporate reports, and production data to estimate the impact of rising oil prices on the province's finances. As oilsands production has eclipsed conventional oil production and as ownership of the oilsands have increasingly become concentrated in four large companies, the implications for Alberta's tenuous democracy are obvious. This influence will be one of the great challenges...
Energy, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut: Theory and Reality

    In 2023, a book on the Kenney government edited by Ricardo Acuna and Trevor Harrison will be released. I contribute one chapter on Alberta’s Job Creation Tax Cut examining critically whether this one-third cut to corporate income tax has had any positive impact on Alberta’s economy in terms of investment, jobs and wages. In this post (which is not part of the book chapter), I explore the theory behind the corporate income tax cuts.  The critical element in my view is in assessing the nature of capital and labour in Alberta and in particular the energy sector, most notably the oilsands. Background In the UCP’s 2019 election platform, a key policy plank was to cut the corporate income tax from 12 per cent to 8 per cent over four years. Two economists- Jack M...
Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Investment

Hyndman Papers: public vs. private investment and rising interest rates

Private sector investment has been the main driver of the Alberta economy over the past half century.  Private investment in Alberta is highly correlated to secular movements in oil prices. Interest rates too play a major factor in driving economies.  Low interest rates make investing in capital assets such as energy projects and housing more viable than when interest rates rise dramatically as they did in the early 1980s.  The global economy is facing rising interest rates and a current boom in commodity prices including oil, natural gas, potash and grain prices.  The two documents below illustrate the nature of Alberta's capital investment stock relative to other provinces.  Alberta in 1981 had double the per capita private sector investment of the next province Saskatchewan.  As a conse...
Balancing Pool Act- Public interest or political posturing
Agencies, Energy, Environment, Politics

Balancing Pool Act- Public interest or political posturing

On 21 April, apparently in response to opposition demands that the UCP government stop withdrawals of utility services and get cheques or rebates into the hands of Albertans quickly, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity Dale Nally issued a news release. During a 17-minute news conference Nally took the former NDP government to task when releasing a March 2021 report from Deloitte LLP on the financial position of Alberta's Balancing Pool (ABP). The report concluded that the cost of the policy changes totaled $1.34-billion.  It is ironic that this is about the same number that the UCP government lost from its bet on TC Energy's Keystone XL pipeline. Dale Nally, Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity Nally was in true fighting form demonstrating lessons he h...
Sequoia Resources- Abuse of Process brought to a halt in “common sense” Court of Appeal decision
Energy, Environment, Financial Institutions

Sequoia Resources- Abuse of Process brought to a halt in “common sense” Court of Appeal decision

Background  The continuing saga of the bankruptcy of Sequoia Resources is finally back at the trial stage. On March the twenty-fifth the Alberta Court of Appeal (ACA) directed the Trustee in bankruptcy’s challenge of Perpetual Energy’s sale of its “Goodyear” assets must precede to trial.  The unanimous decision by ACA justices Patricia Rowbotham, Ritu Khullar and Jolaine Antonio took particular exception to the manner in which Perpetual Energy Inc. and associated entities -Perpetual Operating Trust (POT), Perpetual Operating Corp.(PEOC), and Susan Riddell Rose had relitigated their defense with two applications to the Masters of Chamber judge opposing the claim by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ LIT (PWC) acting as the Trustee over the estate of bankrupt Sequoia Resources. The long saga commences...
ESNA presents- Session on nuclear power
Energy, Environment

ESNA presents- Session on nuclear power

The link for this Zoom event will be sent on the morning of the event to the email address provided while registering in Eventbrite. If you do not see the link in your inbox, please check your junk mail folder.  This event is exclusive to ESNA Members. You can join by clicking into one of the REGISTER button here.   Not yet a Member?  Go to ESNA.ca    Virtual Luncheon - June 21(registration closes at 5:00pm on June 20, 2022) Date: Tuesday, June 21  Time: Noon - 1:00 pm Speaker: Steve Coupland Topic: Steve Coupland, Director of Regulatory and Environmental Affairs of the Canadian Nuclear Association, will discuss what we might expect to see in the future of nuclear development and deployments. Are recent government announcements signals of b...
Energy, Energy, Politics

Gordon Laxer on Big Foreign Oil

Balancing perspectives: Why was foreign influence exercised in Alberta’s Oilpatch not investigated by the Allan Inquiry? Gordon Laxer is one of Canada’s foremost political economists. He was the founding director of The Parkland Institute at the University of Alberta and is the author of many books, articles, and opinion pieces on Canada’s oil and gas sector. Abpolecon.ca is pleased to share with our readership Dr. Laxer’s recent work on foreign influence and control in Canada’s oil and gas sector. In a report, co-published by the Council of Canadians and CPPA Saskatchewan and B.C., entitled “Posing as Canadian- How Big Foreign Oil captures Canadian energy and climate policy,” he counters the widely derided Allan Inquiry report into foreign funding. Laxer finds it hypocritical of UCP polic...
Energy, Environment, Government Finances

International Energy Agency- Bombshell Report

Until about five years ago the International Energy Agency was beholden to Big Oil. It is no more. Its blockbuster report dropped on an unsuspecting world on 18 May raises deep questions about Big Oil’s survival much past the next decade. The report of 223 pages entitled Net Zero by 2050- A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, contains four main chapters, four appendices, and six pages of references. With ESG investing in ascendance, Alberta’s regulatory system of setting security requirements broken, now there is considerable doubt that long-term bitumen reserves have the value they once had.. The IEA volume is organized in four parts: implications of country’s net-zero pledges; global pathway to net-zero CO2 emissions in in 2050; sectoral pathways to net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050; and...
Budget, Economic Data, Employment, Energy, Fiscal History

Hyndman papers- preparations for 1981-82 budget

There are a number of interesting things in the following memo to the Priorities Committee of Cabinet taken from the Hyndman papers.  It is March 1981 and there is enormous uncertainty which  the Lougheed government has not been accustomed to. A global recession going on and the National Energy Program has thrown the Lougheed government curves never faced before including higher levels of unemployment. This was a government that had enjoyed the spoils of office for nearly a decade and those spoils are under assault from outside forces over which it has no control. The response of the federal government ("Ottawa government" or "Trudeau government") has chosen to protect the interests of the consuming provinces- the most populous provinces of Ontario (over 100 seats) and Quebec (75 seats).  ...
1981- Economic Downturn and Accelerated Projects
Capital Spending, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

1981- Economic Downturn and Accelerated Projects

The fall and winter of 1980-81 was a very unsettling time for provincial politicians. The Alberta public, politicians, and senior public servants were furious at the indifference of federal politicians' plans to redirect oil revenues from producers and the provincial government. Unemployment insurance claims rose from about 10,000 in September 1980 to over 17,000 in January 1981. Alberta's unemployment rate increased from 3.4 per cent in September to 4.5 per cent in January, further causing concern in a province which had recorded rapid economic growth since the early 1970s. In this climate of uncertainty, Treasurer Lou Hyndman had requested his cabinet colleagues to provide suggestions on how to get idle human and physical capital to work again. In these two memoranda from the Hyndman pap...