Credit Ratings Archives - Page 3 of 4

28Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Fiscal and Economic Update- Analysis & Opinion

Slight improvement in deficit forecast for 2020-21 Recalibration of 3-year budget plan Balanced budget pushed further into future Fiscal anchors Ottawa's growing indebtedness and other grievances Job Creation Tax Cut and cutting red tape expected to spur investment and employment Government stays with present course to resize spending Small hint about need to examine revenue structure On Tuesday 24 November, Finance Minister Travis Toews released the 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement. (Watch the Press Conference here.) There was a slight improvement in the deficit numbers in the First Quarter Fiscal Forecast - then the deficit was estimated to be $24.8 billion- now the Government expects a $21.3 billion deficit. Improvements came mainly on the revenue side with $1.4 b...

Another Downgrade from Moody’s: Aa2 to Aa3

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB, Credit Ratings

Another Downgrade from Moody’s: Aa2 to Aa3

Analysis and Opinion On 2 October 2020, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the Province's debt to Aa3 from Aa2 while revising the outlook to Stable from Rating under Review. The short report and review was initiated on 31 August 2020 shortly after the provincial government's skeletal First Quarter Fiscal Update. The downgrade leaves Alberta one notch above the single A rating category. Downgrades in theory mean the borrower will have to pay higher rates of interest on its debt. The downgrade was expected and gave a balanced view on the fiscal picture acknowledging the province's strong liquidity position and the province's fiscal capacity to "enact additional tax measures to support revenue growth, which nevertheless the provincial governments have been reluctant to fully use in recent y...

31Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

“Triple Black Swan Event”

Themes from the press conference "No credible date for rebalance" "Doing everything we can to encourage economic growth and development" "Stay tuned for Budget 21-22" "We can no longer afford to be an outlier" "This is not a time to be talking about raising taxes." A focus on delivering public services more efficiently and growing the economy. "Important for Albertans to have a discussion about revenue structure" Albertans will continue to be "self responsible" "We will be very reluctant to shut down the economy" Finance Minister and Treasury Board President Travis Toews presented the UCP government's much anticipated Fiscal Update on Thursday, 27 August. The thin 20-page document was much less substantive than I expected. At his press conference, the Minister presented both the govern...

26Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Politics

Fiscal Update- August 2020

It appears our UCP friends have left it to the last moment to drop the fiscal update and financial accounts on the Opposition NDP who will debate the documents tomorrow.. It could be cynicism or it could be the UCP Cabinet and Caucus still have not agreed among themselves how to position the past year's financial accounts- blaming the NDP- or how do we preach fiscal austerity in a sea of red ink, and how do you budget credibly to a balanced budget in 22-23 or 23-24? How can you make the numbers add up, even with glowing expectations of energy and other investment pouring into the province? The latter point may not be seen as credible by the rating agencies. In reality for the next two years, Alberta, will be a net taker from Confederation, not leading the country in economic growth and dr...

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...

1Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Credit Ratings, Government Finances

The next downgrade

On 30 June FitchRatings downgraded the provincial rating from AA to AA- and revised its ratings outlook on long-term debt to negative from stable. Although there was nothing surprising about the downgrade, in view of the Province's deteriorating fiscal position, several statements are noteworthy. First, the report came one day after the Alberta Economic Recovery Plan was announced, Fitch remarked there was a lack of updated financial information. Fitch's initial timing of the report may have been dictated by the expectation that audited financial statements for the last fiscal year would be available. This turned out not to be the case as the Government amended the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act to give the Government until the end of August to complete the financial statements....

Reset for federal-provincial-municipal fiscal arrangements? Opinion

17Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Reset for federal-provincial-municipal fiscal arrangements? Opinion

It is cliché to say we are living in extraordinary times. Comparisons with the Global Financial Crisis doesn’t work, although monetary madness is again afoot. For Alberta, there are comparisons with the 1980s when homes were sold for a dollar, allowing mortgagors to walk away. And of course, there is the Great Depression, which devastated all of Canada and left lasting resonance on how people related to others, to governments, and to money. So now, we are in a time of both crisis and reflection. Should governments (national and sub-national) be co-operating or competing? We know the beggar thy neighbour policies of the Great Depression did not work, but our next-door neighbour seems intent to draw up the bridges on the castle. In Canada, we are in in a period of inter-governmental co-oper...

Keystone-XL, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Borrowers

9Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Energy, Energy, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Keystone-XL, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Borrowers

At the end of March, the Alberta cabinet passed Order in Council 104/2020 which authorized the “President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance to make advances to or purchase securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.” In addition, the Minister was given the authority to raise: “up to $2 000 000 000, by the issue and sale from time to time of notes, bonds, debentures or interest-bearing or non-interest-bearing treasury bills issued by the Crown in right of Alberta or any other securities under which the Crown in right of Alberta is the debtor (collectively referred to hereafter as “Government securities”) for the purpose of making advances to or purchasing securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in respect of the development of a...

30Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Intergovernmental

Government Borrowing

Updated 2 April 2020 A number of historic events have taken place this past week, with long-term ramifications for the Canadian and Alberta economies. Bank of Canada actions to purchase money market paper of provincial governmentsBank of Canada starts quantitative easing and will purchase commercial paperManitoba Premier calling on the federal government to establish a Pandemic Emergency Credit FacilityProvince of Alberta issues a century bond Alberta is witnessing the deepest economic storm since the mid-1980s and likely will see conditions similar to the Great Depression over the next few months. Unlike the Great Depression, our social safety net and government willingness to “do whatever it takes” will moderate the financial and economic distress. Unlike the Great Depression, ...

22Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Opinion/Research

Budget 2020-Credit Perspective

[Updated 23 August 2020. Note: This report was in development before the DBRS Morningstar report of Thursday 19 March. The report is only available to purchasers of the service. Normally, the Province of Alberta posts on its Investor Relations page the reports. To date, this has not taken place. Nor has there been an official reaction to the downgrade to AA- from AA and the outlook to negative.] One of the key audiences of any government budget, but especially a budget under increasing duress and scrutiny, are credit rating agencies such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and DBRS Morningstar. Credit evaluation is as much an art as a science, requiring an understanding of financial principles, economics and political science. Agencies provide opinions on probabilities of default of b...