Credit Ratings Archives

Is Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 4- ‘My fellow Albertans’

25May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Investment, Politics

Is Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 4- ‘My fellow Albertans’

“Separation, if necessary, but not necessarily separation” Introduction Premier Danielle Smith’s 5 May 2025 address followed by one week the Liberals’ near-majority re-election. Smith chose to deliver Her update on the ongoing war with “Ottawa.” “Ottawa” is code for the federal Liberal Party elite and is frequently used word to disparage the federal government. Smith used Ottawa 15 times in this address. Smith, ever the articulate, telegenic leader is a consummate communicator who has learned on the radio talk circuit as well during Her political career, didn't disappoint. She comes across as a voice of reason and the mainstream listener may not fully understand the underlying coded messages. In this analysis, I examine the text of Her address as well as watching/listening to...

Is Danielle Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 3- Survey results

17May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

Is Danielle Smith really a separatist/annexationist? Part 3- Survey results

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. In this part I examine recent and some historical polling data on Alberta separatism. In subsequent parts I will review Premier Smith’s “address” to Albertans and her salvo of fury over Mark Carney’s cabinet choices. Smith has clearly gone on the offensive since revelations in early February about suspicious procurement practices at Alberta Health Services surfaced. As a former colleague of mine at ATB used to characterize changing the narrative, Smith and her communications staff have embarked on a massive “head fake.” Recent polling by the Angus Reid Institute show that 48 per cent or roughly half of a randomized sample of...

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

4May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist/Annexationist? Part 2

Updated 3 May 2025 Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Explanatory comment I have been working on this question for the better part of three weeks spurred on my the concatenation of Her fiery speech to the Legislative Assembly on 26 March, Her attacks on Carney and the trip to PungurU and Ben Shapiro, revealed She was exploring the idea of independence ("from Ottawa) or statehood ("Texas of the North). As this blogs shows it is charitable to say Smith is "flirting" with separatism. It's doubtful there was that much open animosity between Ottawa and Quebec during 2 referenda. Smith's fiery speech might be compared to pre-Civil War missives from the south to Washingto...

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

30Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Is Danielle Smith really a Separatist or Annexationist? Part 1

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. Background In a June 2023 article in The Conversation I raised the question “Will Danielle Smith veer back to the right and towards Alberta separatism?” At the time, a month after Smith’s United Conservative Party won the general election, I argued that Alberta had an economic and financial “ace in the hole”- Alberta’s vast export surplus driven by conventional and unconventional oil. Alberta separation would mean that Canadians' standard of living would drop significantly as would the Canadian dollar. I also noted that, unlike Quebec Inc., the ownership of Alberta’s fossil fuel-based economy is largely controlled by American financia...

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...

30May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s Public Accounts Committee- Thoughts on Accountability and Public Service Neutrality

The purpose of this post is to the delve into the accountability aspects of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in Alberta through the lens of one meeting which took place on 7 May 2024. The transcript of the meeting can be found here and the video proceedings here. Readers may wish to skip over the detail about the meeting to read the conclusions at the foot of this essay. I attended this meeting because a colleague and I provided briefing material for Marlin Schmidt, NDP MLA for Edmonton Goldbar about the Auditor General’s report on Key Audit Matters. This post serves as a companion piece to my interview with Professor Jared Wesley on the state of democracy in Alberta. As discussed below, the Public Accounts Committee serves as one of the principal structures of holding governm...

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Presentation to the Probus Club of Central Edmonton

14Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Presentation to the Probus Club of Central Edmonton

My presentation to Probus members on 20 February 2024 reiterated the main themes in A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published by Athabasca University Press in 2022. The presentation is found below. Much of the discussion acknowledged the why for a retail sales tax but most of the questions and comments focused on the how, The major difficulty is political culture which is very hostile to taxes than in the rest of the country. Several members who had worked within the Alberta public sector argued that waste in governments should discourage taxpayers from further "feeding the beast." It is a Catch 22- to make the political culture less fearful of paying taxes, government needs to become more efficient. To become more efficient typically means to hire private sector managemen...

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Credit Ratings, Education, Government Finances, Politics

Budget 2024- 13th Post-mortem- Panelists’ presentations

On Monday, 11 March I moderated a panel of experts who provided different perspectives on Alberta's 2024 budget tabled by the Honourable Nate Horner on Thursday, 29 February 2024. Our panelists included: Shauna Feth, the CEO of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce gave her Association's views on the Budget. See PDF of slides below. The ACA's perspective (slides 10-15) is generally approving of the budget which supports business competitiveness, growing trade, building healthy communities, and improving government accountability. Two areas of concern regarding competitiveness were Land Titles Office fees increasing which will effect commercial real estate, and the insurance premium tax. The Chamber was pleased with increased investment in the First Nations Development Fund and Alberta...

26Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Kaplan-Ten major reasons why Alberta’s new fiscal framework won’t bring a long-term sustainability focus to fiscal planning.

In this critical and timely essay- a few days before the province's 2024 Budget is tabled, fiscal planning expert Lennie Kaplan provides an in-depth analysis of problems embedded in the Smith government's Sustainable Fiscal Planning and Reporting Act (SFPRA). Kaplan argues the SFPRA must be fully re-opened to meet Premier Smith’s commitment to long-term fiscal planning. This analysis reveals there is a great deal of flexibility in the government's framework in spite of the impression that the government has little fiscal flexibility to spend. In her televised address on February 21, 2024, Premier Smith promised to bring a long-term fiscal sustainability focus to Alberta fiscal planning, including building up the assets of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) and paying d...

Auditor General ‘qualifies’ his unqualified opinion

5Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Auditor General ‘qualifies’ his unqualified opinion

In December 2023 Alberta’s Auditor General, Doug Wylie produced a report on his opinion on the Government of Alberta’s Consolidated Financial Statements, The report identifies in the matters which, in the professional judgment of the Auditor General and his staff (OAG), were the most significant matters raised during their audit work. These matters were the Accounting for environmental liabilities Implementation of the new public sector accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations, financial instruments, and foreign currency. (OAG, December 2023, p. 15). This post focusses on environmental liabilities. Background Alberta’s financial statements are released by the end of June each year by the Finance Minister and the OAG’s audit objective is “to provi...