Credit Ratings Archives

30May

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta’s Public Accounts Committee- Thoughts on Accountability and Public Service Neutrality

The purpose of this post is to the delve into the accountability aspects of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in Alberta through the lens of one meeting which took place on 7 May 2024. The transcript of the meeting can be found here and the video proceedings here. Readers may wish to skip over the detail about the meeting to read the conclusions at the foot of this essay. I attended this meeting because a colleague and I provided briefing material for Marlin Schmidt, NDP MLA for Edmonton Goldbar about the Auditor General’s report on Key Audit Matters. This post serves as a companion piece to my interview with Professor Jared Wesley on the state of democracy in Alberta. As discussed below, the Public Accounts Committee serves as one of the principal structures of holding governm...

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Presentation to the Probus Club of Central Edmonton

14Apr

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta- Presentation to the Probus Club of Central Edmonton

My presentation to Probus members on 20 February 2024 reiterated the main themes in A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published by Athabasca University Press in 2022. The presentation is found below. Much of the discussion acknowledged the why for a retail sales tax but most of the questions and comments focused on the how, The major difficulty is political culture which is very hostile to taxes than in the rest of the country. Several members who had worked within the Alberta public sector argued that waste in governments should discourage taxpayers from further "feeding the beast." It is a Catch 22- to make the political culture less fearful of paying taxes, government needs to become more efficient. To become more efficient typically means to hire private sector managemen...

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Credit Ratings, Education, Government Finances, Politics

Budget 2024- 13th Post-mortem- Panelists’ presentations

On Monday, 11 March I moderated a panel of experts who provided different perspectives on Alberta's 2024 budget tabled by the Honourable Nate Horner on Thursday, 29 February 2024. Our panelists included: Shauna Feth, the CEO of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce gave her Association's views on the Budget. See PDF of slides below. The ACA's perspective (slides 10-15) is generally approving of the budget which supports business competitiveness, growing trade, building healthy communities, and improving government accountability. Two areas of concern regarding competitiveness were Land Titles Office fees increasing which will effect commercial real estate, and the insurance premium tax. The Chamber was pleased with increased investment in the First Nations Development Fund and Alberta...

26Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Kaplan-Ten major reasons why Alberta’s new fiscal framework won’t bring a long-term sustainability focus to fiscal planning.

In this critical and timely essay- a few days before the province's 2024 Budget is tabled, fiscal planning expert Lennie Kaplan provides an in-depth analysis of problems embedded in the Smith government's Sustainable Fiscal Planning and Reporting Act (SFPRA). Kaplan argues the SFPRA must be fully re-opened to meet Premier Smith’s commitment to long-term fiscal planning. This analysis reveals there is a great deal of flexibility in the government's framework in spite of the impression that the government has little fiscal flexibility to spend. In her televised address on February 21, 2024, Premier Smith promised to bring a long-term fiscal sustainability focus to Alberta fiscal planning, including building up the assets of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF) and paying d...

Auditor General ‘qualifies’ his unqualified opinion

5Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Auditor General ‘qualifies’ his unqualified opinion

In December 2023 Alberta’s Auditor General, Doug Wylie produced a report on his opinion on the Government of Alberta’s Consolidated Financial Statements, The report identifies in the matters which, in the professional judgment of the Auditor General and his staff (OAG), were the most significant matters raised during their audit work. These matters were the Accounting for environmental liabilities Implementation of the new public sector accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations, financial instruments, and foreign currency. (OAG, December 2023, p. 15). This post focusses on environmental liabilities. Background Alberta’s financial statements are released by the end of June each year by the Finance Minister and the OAG’s audit objective is “to provi...

3Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Investment, Politics

AIMCo’s Portfolio and Performance (Part 2)

This series has been informed by the public meeting of the Standing Committee of Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund. An overview of the meeting can be found on Abpolecon.ca here. Part 1 investigated information the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) supplies to the Securities and Exchange Commission on their quarterly Form 13F filing. Some unusual findings were cited about AIMCo's U.S. holdings, that to my knowledge have not been publicized before. The 13F filing is the most current disclosure of AIMCo's assets to 30 September 2023. In Part 2, I examine AIMCo's total portfolio and performance metrics which are disclosed in its 2022 annual report, the latest available. At the Heritage Fund public meeting on 30 November 2023 (Hansard record), one of the problems ide...

Now is the time to establish a Legislative Assembly Budget Office in Alberta says Lennie Kaplan

28Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Now is the time to establish a Legislative Assembly Budget Office in Alberta says Lennie Kaplan

In a second of a series of essays recommending more fiscal accountability, Lennie Kaplan proposes a new legislative office. The office would assist legislators outside in provincial cabinet in holding government accountable for their fiscal plan. The new office would provide analysis of the cost of government programs. Alberta needs a legislative budget office Provincial governments across Canada, including Alberta, have seen their credibility decline over the past two decades due to inaccurate budget forecasts and a lack of comprehensive assessment of the costs of policy measures and programs, particularly policy measures and programs with significant medium- to long-term fiscal implications. Weakness in legislative oversight over spending and the lack of legislative scrutiny ov...

Northwest Upgrader- more surprises ahead for Alberta taxpayers?

18Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances, Politics

Northwest Upgrader- more surprises ahead for Alberta taxpayers?

Soon after the Legislative Assembly was recessed on 6 December, Alberta’ Executive Council (provincial cabinet) passed Order in Council 219/2023 to authorize the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) to borrow money to finance the operations of the North West Redwater (Sturgeon) refinery. The maximum amount to be borrowed "shall not exceed $2.9-billion"- hardly a relief for Alberta taxpayers. The O.C. also authorizes the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance to “make advances to or purchase securities of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission” not to exceed the same $2.9-billion limit. It will be the Crown in Right of Alberta who will be raising this money by issuing securities and the Crown will become the debtor. Under section 7, the terms and conditions ...

18Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Credit Ratings, Investment, Politics

2023-24 First Quarter Fiscal Update

The First Quarter Fiscal Update released on 31 August 2023 by Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Nate Horner showed marginal change in the budgetary surplus estimated last February. This analysis looks through these numbers to underlying trends. With oil prices now over $90, there is some cause for optimism. So far this year WTI oil prices have averaged about $76.50 U.S./barrel which is about $2.50 U.S. lower than the budget estimate. Much will depend on whether western economies achieve a “soft landing” avoiding a deep recession with falling oil demand. On 14 September DBRS Morningstar raised Alberta’s credit rating a notch to AA (see discussion below). Is spending out of control? No On page 4 in the Fiscal Plan Summary table, total expenditure was $64.5 billion in 2022-23...

2Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Environment, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Loan Losses, Politics

The Big Two mandates….

Over the past three weeks, Premier Smith has been busy issuing “mandate letters” to her cabinet colleagues. These mandate letters are ministers’ marching orders and are an excellent guide of future legislative and regulatory initiatives by the newly minted Smith government. Given the importance of five ministries which represent the most important conduits of public spending (Health and Education) and strategic public policy and intergovernmental relations (Energy and Minerals, Environment and Protected Areas, and Treasury Board and Finance), this post, and a succeeding post, looks at the central elements of Smith’s agenda. This post looks examines what I call the Big Two Mandates- Energy and Treasury Board and Finance. Energy and Minerals Smith’s letter to Jean, begins, excluding the b...