Budget Archives - Page 7 of 9

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

31Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Government Finances

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

After the National Energy Program was announced, Alberta was about to enter a period of recession that would shape fiscal policy for over the next four decades. As this excerpt from a January 1981 memorandum from Deputy Provincial Treasurer A.F. (Chip) Collins reveals, the province's budget-makers faced a climate of great uncertainty. Over the coming months, Abpolecon.ca will be reporting the internal discussions, at the highest levels of the Alberta government, respecting economic activity and proposed budgetary measures. This tumultuous period offers interesting parallels to what Treasury Board and Finance budget-makers are dealing with. As this excerpt from Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman's files illustrates, 1981 was turning into annus horribilis. As the Treasury department prepar...

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

13Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...

30Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Intergovernmental

Government Borrowing

Updated 2 April 2020 A number of historic events have taken place this past week, with long-term ramifications for the Canadian and Alberta economies. Bank of Canada actions to purchase money market paper of provincial governmentsBank of Canada starts quantitative easing and will purchase commercial paperManitoba Premier calling on the federal government to establish a Pandemic Emergency Credit FacilityProvince of Alberta issues a century bond Alberta is witnessing the deepest economic storm since the mid-1980s and likely will see conditions similar to the Great Depression over the next few months. Unlike the Great Depression, our social safety net and government willingness to “do whatever it takes” will moderate the financial and economic distress. Unlike the Great Depression, ...

Alberta ‘Growth’ Mandate- Analysis and Opinion

22Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta ‘Growth’ Mandate- Analysis and Opinion

While now is not necessarily the best time to be taking stock of one's investment portfolio, government and provincial agency officials, who face a March 31 fiscal year end deadline, are concerned about the impact of accounting rules that require "fair market accounting" for their investments. The performance of both bond and equity markets over the next ten days will determine whether forecasts for investment income in the provincial budget ($1.96 billion for the Heritage Fund) will actually pan out. Investment income for investment portfolios are typically composed of two types of income: (1) dividends and interest payments or cash distributions from private equity, and (2) increases or decreases of the "fair value" of the investment at year -end compared to the initial cost of buy...

22Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Opinion/Research

Budget 2020-Credit Perspective

[Updated 23 August 2020. Note: This report was in development before the DBRS Morningstar report of Thursday 19 March. The report is only available to purchasers of the service. Normally, the Province of Alberta posts on its Investor Relations page the reports. To date, this has not taken place. Nor has there been an official reaction to the downgrade to AA- from AA and the outlook to negative.] One of the key audiences of any government budget, but especially a budget under increasing duress and scrutiny, are credit rating agencies such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and DBRS Morningstar. Credit evaluation is as much an art as a science, requiring an understanding of financial principles, economics and political science. Agencies provide opinions on probabilities of default of b...

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Politics

Sales Tax for Alberta?

Recently there has been a renewed interest in a sales tax for Alberta. Grant Bishop of the C.D. Howe Institute writing a "Shadow Budget" for Alberta, has suggested the introduction of a sales tax after the budget is balanced through spending cuts. In a recent report from the Parkland Institute, Cutting Through the Blue Ribbon, authors Bob Ascah, Trevor Harrison, and Richard Mueller conclude that a provincial sales tax, harmonized with the federal Goods and Services Tax, is an appropriate fiscal measure to achieve fiscal sustainability. SUch a revenue measure would directly address Alberta's chronic vulnerability to fluctuating commodity prices. Then in an October 25th piece in The Globe and Mail, Max Fawcett argues that Jason Kenney, like Richard Nixon going to China, is uniquely placed ...

Critical Review of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances (MacKinnon Report)

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances

Critical Review of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances (MacKinnon Report)

This analysis of the Blue-Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances: Report and Recommendations (McKinnon report) includes a description of the construction of the panel- its membership, its mandate, process, and its members’ experience and predispositions. In the second part of the paper, I describe how the construction of the panel predetermined its recommendations. And finally, using textual analysis, I examine the basic assumptions used by the Report’s authors to construct their interpretation of how to improve the provincial government’s fiscal standing. Composition of Panel On 7 May, three weeks after the election of the UCP, Premier Kenney and Travis Toews, Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance announced the formation of the Blue-Ribbon panel. As most commentators quickly reali...

Journey to obsession: a sales tax for Alberta (Part 1)

29Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Politics

Journey to obsession: a sales tax for Alberta (Part 1)

The following is a draft of the preface for the unnamed as yet book title about a sales tax for Alberta- hopefully forthcoming in the summer of 2019. The following is a personal set of experiences related to the sales tax discussion that is not included in the book. It's the story of my interest, then obsession, about the rationale for Alberta adopting a sales tax.. One of my initiatives at the Institute for Public Economics (UofA) when I became Director was to initiate a policy analysis publication. The first endeavour, (of three), was a paper by Dr. Ergete Ferede of MacEwan University. The paper, entitled “The Response of Tax Bases to the Business Cycle: The Case for Alberta,” looked at the volatility of certain tax sources, including a PST. I vividly remember the following fro...

25Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Politics

Alberta’s Fiscal Dilemma

Excerpt from forthcoming book of essays about an Alberta sales tax. Legislature Building Alberta’s fiscal dilemma, which has vexed provincial politicians since 1905, is the public’s expectation that governments will provide a high level of services and maintain low taxes. Services in the early years were basic education, roads, railways, telephones, relief, public buildings, and irrigation canals. Today government services include health care and a variety of programs for corporations such as small business, farmers, oil and gas investment incentives, and special-needs Albertans. Other functions critical to the modern state involve regulation of marketplace behaviour, electricity markets, food, the environment, financial services, labour relations, and building public infrastructur...