Budget Archives - Page 6 of 9

10Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Fiscal History

Hyndman Papers: Excerpts from Old Budget Speeches (Part 2)

Updated 16 December 2020 In this remarkable and lengthy undated memorandum from Jim Dinning, a future Treasurer and candidate for the premiership of Alberta, to Lou Hyndman, Dinning highlights some historical issues which still confound Alberta finances to this day. (The italics are Dinning classification of issues for Treasurer Hyndman.) Central to preparing a budget in the 1980s was the reliability of non-renewable resource revenue. Back in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s natural resource revenue was also front of mind. The growing dependence on resource revenue was underlined in Ernest Manning's 1950 budget. A dilemma for provincial treasurers then, in 1980, and today is the balancing of pressures for spending, the proper stewardship of resource revenue, and the need to contain "insatiabl...

9Dec

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Fiscal History, Politics

A presentation to the Board of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce – A Sales Tax for Alberta-Why and How

This morning I made a presentation to the Board of Directors of the Edmonton Chamber and senior management of the Edmonton Chamber. Below is the PowerPoint/PDF. Although the business community is still generally negative to a provincial sales tax, possibly harmonized with the federal GST, there appears to be a growing realization that non-renewable resource revenue will not be sufficient alone to balance Alberta's structural deficits. In late October, the Chamber released Forging our Future which includes the following: While government spending and support programs are critical right now,we must not lose sight of the fiscal challenges on the horizon.We recommend a review of the Canadian tax system and a review ofAlberta’s revenue sources, including consideration for a consumption t...

28Nov

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Fiscal and Economic Update- Analysis & Opinion

Slight improvement in deficit forecast for 2020-21 Recalibration of 3-year budget plan Balanced budget pushed further into future Fiscal anchors Ottawa's growing indebtedness and other grievances Job Creation Tax Cut and cutting red tape expected to spur investment and employment Government stays with present course to resize spending Small hint about need to examine revenue structure On Tuesday 24 November, Finance Minister Travis Toews released the 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement. (Watch the Press Conference here.) There was a slight improvement in the deficit numbers in the First Quarter Fiscal Forecast - then the deficit was estimated to be $24.8 billion- now the Government expects a $21.3 billion deficit. Improvements came mainly on the revenue side with $1.4 b...

8Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Energy, Government Finances, Politics, Uncategorized

After waiting an extra 2 months 2019-20- some major surprises missed in February forecast

Updated 10 November 2020 In an earlier report on the crucial role played by the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) in government finances, we highlighted the Commission's role in overseeing the North West Redwater Upgrader investment, commenced in the latter years of the Stelmach regime. We raised some doubts, given APMC's record with the North West Redwater Partnership (NWRP), about its competence in negotiating with TC Energy on the Keystone XL project. APMC is also the agency tasked with negotiating the Energy East commitment and the controversial oil-by rail contracts. With the two-month delay in the publication of the Government of Alberta's Annual Report and audited consolidated financial statements, the public finally has been apprised that Alberta's budget shortfal...

31Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances

“Triple Black Swan Event”

Themes from the press conference "No credible date for rebalance" "Doing everything we can to encourage economic growth and development" "Stay tuned for Budget 21-22" "We can no longer afford to be an outlier" "This is not a time to be talking about raising taxes." A focus on delivering public services more efficiently and growing the economy. "Important for Albertans to have a discussion about revenue structure" Albertans will continue to be "self responsible" "We will be very reluctant to shut down the economy" Finance Minister and Treasury Board President Travis Toews presented the UCP government's much anticipated Fiscal Update on Thursday, 27 August. The thin 20-page document was much less substantive than I expected. At his press conference, the Minister presented both the govern...

26Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Government Finances, Politics

Fiscal Update- August 2020

It appears our UCP friends have left it to the last moment to drop the fiscal update and financial accounts on the Opposition NDP who will debate the documents tomorrow.. It could be cynicism or it could be the UCP Cabinet and Caucus still have not agreed among themselves how to position the past year's financial accounts- blaming the NDP- or how do we preach fiscal austerity in a sea of red ink, and how do you budget credibly to a balanced budget in 22-23 or 23-24? How can you make the numbers add up, even with glowing expectations of energy and other investment pouring into the province? The latter point may not be seen as credible by the rating agencies. In reality for the next two years, Alberta, will be a net taker from Confederation, not leading the country in economic growth and dr...

Budget 1981-82: Communications objectives

9Aug

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending

Budget 1981-82: Communications objectives

The April 1981 was a pivotal budget for the Province of Alberta. Every budget has key communications objectives, as Lou Hyndman's one-page memorandum to his Treasury Board and cabinet colleagues, reveals. This budget was Alberta's first after the National Energy Program was announced. As last week's Abopecon.ca reported, the previous month, the Treasury department was wary about providing any economic forecasts and the prevailing mood in the provincial government and the whole economy was grim. The situation back in 1981 is analogous to the circumstances facing the current government. For the Conservative government, re-elected for the third time in 1979 with 74 of 79 seats, it was clear that the government would use its considerable fiscal resources to maintain public services an...

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

31Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Government Finances

Hyndman Papers- Budget 1981 preparations

After the National Energy Program was announced, Alberta was about to enter a period of recession that would shape fiscal policy for over the next four decades. As this excerpt from a January 1981 memorandum from Deputy Provincial Treasurer A.F. (Chip) Collins reveals, the province's budget-makers faced a climate of great uncertainty. Over the coming months, Abpolecon.ca will be reporting the internal discussions, at the highest levels of the Alberta government, respecting economic activity and proposed budgetary measures. This tumultuous period offers interesting parallels to what Treasury Board and Finance budget-makers are dealing with. As this excerpt from Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman's files illustrates, 1981 was turning into annus horribilis. As the Treasury department prepar...

4Jul

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics, Uncategorized

Alberta’s Economic Recovery Plan

Analysis and Opinion Correction made 8 July 2020 re. $1.906 trillion, not billion Premier Jason Kenney has doubled down on his bet to rescue Alberta's beleaguered economy with more corporate tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Alberta' Economic Recovery Plan or ERP is a curious blend of spin, self-praise, capitalism at public expense, and a few interesting policy ideas. But overall the plan reads as an unimaginative, traditional blend of slogans, new organizations, and promises about jobs. According to the Premier, "jobs and the economy come first." Most importantly though, the Report confirms Alberta leaders are essentially hostage to international and domestic finance capital. The Premier even observed in his Press Conference that he had met that morning with Unit...

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

13Jun

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Economic Data, Fiscal History, Intergovernmental, Politics

Hyndman Papers- Wilson, Percy and Norrie

Oil prices, Interregional Adjustment and the Canadian Economic Union In the summer of 1980, federal-Alberta relations were going through a period of conflict and mutual suspicion. Around the same time as the Mellon memo and the Treasury review of Alberta's contribution to Confederation, three respected economists from the University of Alberta produced a paper for the Treasury on the oil, interregional adjustment, and the Canadian economic union. The 4-page Executive Summary (presented below) examines the question of how might an adjustment to the terms of trade within a federal state (i.e. higher oil prices) ideally be carried out. Key issues examined include: the structure of ownership of natural resources (public versus private); redistribution or recycling of oil wealth in a fed...