Budget Archives - Page 3 of 9

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

11Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Energy, Government Finances

Moody’s upgrades Alberta’s credit rating

After a decade of seeing its credit rating fall steadily from the coveted triple AAA rating to AA3, surging oil revenues have again lifted Alberta’s credit rating. Nature of credit ratings Credit ratings do matter to all governments which borrow on international and domestic capital markets. There is so much debt in the world that for large bond buying desks their analysts cannot focus on every credit in detail. These institutional investors count on rating agencies to undertake thorough, in some cases almost forensic work, to assure large institutional investors- think Vanguard, Swiss RE, J.P Morgan and the CPPIB- that the risks they are managing, including default risk, are fully understood and the debt/credit portfolios have risk limits understood by the bond buyers.. Credit ratings a...

22Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Energy, Fiscal History, Government Finances

Lougheed letter publicizes the Alberta Oil and Gas Activity Plan- Summer 1982

This remarkable letter demonstrates how falling oil prices rang alarm bells in the Alberta government and was very much the result the effect of very high interest rates in North America driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve board and not the National Energy Program.. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS The above graph shows what governments and corporations were watching with alarm as the Fed would move rates up and down with rates nearing 20 per cent followed by a harsh recession which crippled America's auto business, At that time the auto business, like it still is today, is really a financing business based on lending on the security of these American cars. Crippling interest rates discouraged buyers and therefore oil prices. In addition, discerning American drivers were turn...

15Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Uncategorized

Hyndman Papers- Speech to Alberta Municipalities- 1982

Excerpt from Speech to Alberta Municipal Districts & Counties (pp. 12-16) (Undated- likely late November 1982 after 2 November 1982 provincial election) The following speech given by Peter Lougheed in November 1982 set the stage for the Alberta government's post election Alberta Economic Resurgence Program. (The PDF of the excerpt of the speech in below) The speech is notable as signaling the government's intention to restrain government spending and holding public sector wage costs to below the private speech. His language was unusually blunt to this gathering of Alberta's municipal councilors, reeves, and mayors. Crucial to the financing of the resurgence program was a return to direct borrowing of the province- a rare event in the post-war period- and tapping all investment incom...

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

5Dec

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

Mid-year Financial Update- more spending, less revenue

Between the first quarter update at the end of August and the mid-year update of November 25th? a new premier took charge. In the tbf-2022-23-first-quarter (as its PDF is known) the province expected to collect $75.9 billion in revenue. In tbf-2022-23-mid-year total revenue is $76.9 billion. The Mid-term Update was called “Strong economy, strong Alberta” equating Alberta to economy. The press conference video is here. Spending Spending has increased from $62.1-billion in the 2022 Budget, including COVID-19 recovery spending, to $64.7-billion in the fiscal update or by $2.6-billion. Increased spending comes from $300-million in electricity rebates, “affordability initiatives” of $1.2-billion, $308 million for higher costs of selling oil, $340 million for Health including $174 million for th...

12Nov

By Bob Ascah2 Comments

Budget, Energy, Health, Opinion/Research

What does Danielle Smith think?

Updated and corrected 3 December 2022 See also a related BlogPost for the Parkland Institute What Was She Thinking? A Glimpse Into Danielle Smith’s Mind published 2 December 2022 Perhaps the best glimpse into Premier Smith’s thinking on a whole range of critical public policy issues is contained in a 20-page paper entitled “Alberta’s Key Challenges and Opportunities.” This paper was part of the School of Public Policy’s pre-publication series called the Alberta Futures Project. This paper was published in June 2021 before oil and gas prices rose substantially changing the province’s fiscal picture. What is surprising is the absence of a discussion of a sovereignty act and confronting federal overreach central to her winning the UCP leadership. In this article, I examine fundamental v...

30Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

Alberta PST- ESNA presentation

On Friday 21 October 2022, I made a presentation, along with two collaborators Ian Glassford and Elizabeth Smythe to the Economics Society of Northern Alberta on A Sales Tax for Alberta- Why and How published in June by Athabasca University Press. Here is the link to the Youtube channel of ESNA. Below are my slides for the presentation. Much of the question and answer session had much to do with the question of whether personal income tax is essentially a tax on consumption and why would you need to add another sales tax which is not progressive, unlike the personal income tax. Of course the progressivity of personal income tax is debatable given the vast number of specific credit and treatments on savings instruments which disproportionately benefit the well-off. The...

4Oct

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Credit Ratings, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research

PST- the Political Suicide Tax

Updated 12 October 2022 Above- Interview with Bob Ascah- Mornings 630 CHED- Provincial Sales Tax- 11 October 2022. The following article is reprinted with permission of The Conversation (link to article here) which was published Tuesday, 4 October 2022. In this article I make the now familiar plea to Alberta politicians to stop the roller coaster of provincial finances by bringing in a provincial sales tax. As the article explains Albertans have become used to paying low taxes while enjoying good or in some cases superior public goods and services than other provinces' citizens. However the "Alberta Tax Advantage" has a darker side. It has produced a hard core of politicians, business groups. and citizens who hate taxes, especially a sales tax. This type of magical thinking has produced...

10Sep

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Uncategorized

First Quarter Update- Sunny update reveals some cracks

Jason Nixon, Treasury President and Minister of Finance Source: CTV News Edmonton However, there were several dark clouds covering the sun in the first quarter numbers that merit a mention. AIMCo has had another trying quarter like other investment managers Investment income is down $2.9-billion “due entirely to negative Heritage Fund and endowment fund income as financial markets deteriorated. These market losses could be reversed although with interest rates rising bond prices will continue to fall.” Hedging debt service costs hasn’t worked out very well Even though debt is declining significantly, debt servicing costs are rising because of debt swap costs. This is unusual because with rates at historic lows one would want to protect against rising rates by entering interest rate swap...

30Jul

By Bob Ascah1 Comment

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

A Sales Tax for Alberta and the UCP leadership race

Updated 16 August 2022 Well it didn't take too long for a conscientious staffer in Travis Toews' campaign to ferret out the 4 September opinion piece in the Edmonton Journal. In the article Smith setting forward what I think are credible views about Alberta's topsy-Turvey finances stated- Instead, he (Klein) bought off progressives by spending an excessive and unsustainable amount on public services and he bought off conservatives by lowering taxes below the cost of delivering programs. Now the public service screams holy hell at the mention of austerity and taxpayers say they aren’t prepared to pay a dime more. I’m here to tell you: Everyone — on both sides of the political spectrum — needs to suck it up. Alberta needs a three-step financial reset. Step 1: Liquidate the Heritage Fund...

15Jun

By Bob Ascah3 Comments

Budget, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Politics

IT’S FINALLY ARRIVED: A Sales Tax for Alberta: Why and How

Updated 8 July 2022 Interview with Shaye Ganam 630 CHED/ 770 CHQR https://omny.fm/shows/ched-mid-morning/a-sales-tax-for-alberta-why-and-how Read Ascah's opinion piece in the Edmonton Journal 8 July 2022. No this isn't official..yet... and this isn't a prediction or April Fool's Day joke. It's a book that promises to be a summer blockbuster! Sure, I'm the editor and contributor but there are six other academics, financiers, and journalists who weigh in on this controversial subject. Graham Thomson Mel McMillan Ergete Ferede Elizabeth Smythe Ian Glassford Ken McKenzie BUT THERE'S MORE: a foreword from Kevin Taft and Afterword of Trevor Harrison. The volume is the cumulation of a project begun in the fall of 2018, prior to the last provincial elect...