“Separation, if necessary, but not necessarily separation”
Introduction
Premier Danielle Smith’s 5 May 2025 address followed by one week the Liberals’ near-majority re-election. Smith chose to deliver Her update on the ongoing war with “Ottawa.” “Ottawa” is code for the federal Liberal Party elite and is frequently used word to disparage the federal government. Smith used Ottawa 15 times in this address.
Smith, ever the articulate, telegenic leader is a consummate communicator who has learned on the radio talk circuit as well during Her political career, didn’t disappoint. She comes across as a voice of reason and the mainstream listener may not fully understand the underlying coded messages.
Danielle Smith's address to province 5-5-25In this analysis, I examine the text of Her address as well as watching/listening to the address several times. Below are a list of words that are used frequently in this speech. Each of these terms have both meaning and significance as Smith tries to lead public opinion on separatism- “the elephant in the room.” I will also review some of Her factual claims She makes, for example the claim that the federal Liberals and their “socialist” allies chased away $500-billion in investment in Alberta.
Emotive speech
Populist politicians employ language which is emotive, highly charged, thereby creating a visceral response in the listener and viewer. Speeches along these lines force the viewer to draw sides- either in support or opposed. Her words chosen were definitive leaving no ambiguity about what the speech is about. In this case it is the “attacks” launched by Ottawa which must be resisted and is being resisted by Her resolute government.
| Words | Frequency |
| “attack(s)” or “attacked” | -8 |
| “demonize” | -1 |
| “destroying” | -1 |
| “fight” | -2 |
| ‘free” | -13 |
| “frustrated” | -6 |
| “interfere” or “interference” | -4 |
| “chaos” | -1 |
| “loyal” | -4 |
| “onslaught” | -1 |
| “Ottawa” | -15 |
| “strong” and “stronger” | -9 |
| “traitor” | -1 |
| “vilify” | -1 |
Other words which underline the narrative of “us” versus Ottawa is the employment of words such as loyal and traitor. The rallying cry or defence is “strength,” a euphemism for all types of state thuggery such as paramilitary forces, Proud Boys, Aryans, Fascistas, and, closer to home, convoy truckers. Strength is admired as is associated with “freedom” and “free” mentioned 18 times in Her address.
Parenthetically, Her address to the Legislative Assembly back on March 26th (“Standing Up for Alberta”) was Her first effort in testing a plausible defence against claims of treason. Her diatribe was even stronger than the recent address. It would seem she has tempered her attacks by shifting to the more positive term “loyal.”
Central to the effort to mobilize her adherents is the use of the new slogan defining the real Albertan- “strong and free.” Strong and free was the title of the 2019 UCP election platform and employed by former politician Ted Morton in his political memoire.
“Strong and free” signifies the Alberta of yesteryear where government was small, no attention was paid to the environment, and Ottawa was a place to visit. Strong and free is aligned with that stereotypical Albertan who is defined as white, male, and a farmer or oil man. However, this re framing comes at a time when the population is becoming more multiracial and the economy graduating from a pure resources play to a services economy meaning much fewer Albertans are directly or indirectly employed by the agriculture and oil and gas sector.
Scattered throughout Her remarks are other emotive terms such as “demonize,” “destroying,” “fight,” “frustrated,” “onslaught,” “chaos,” and “interference.” These words are emotive when compared to more neutral versions such as oppose, worsen, debate, negotiation, or disorder. Smith is conjuring a fight and that conforms nicely to the strong and free moniker. As several observers have noted, she is “fanning the flames” of separatism or “flirting” with separatists.
Fact-checking
There are several unsubstantiated claims in her speech. Smith reports that Canada stands “dead last in economic growth amonindustrialized nations.” According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent World Economic Outlook, Canada is not “dead last” in GDP growth (see Table below). It is true that Canada does lag many industrialized nations and that should be a concern. It is a major concern for the UCP government since the UCP’s primary measure of a polity’s “health” is economic growth, irrespective of distributional or environmental effects.
| COUNTRY | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Netherlands | 0.073 | 0.98 | 1.413 |
| Australia | 2.056 | 1.038 | 1.634 |
| Canada | 1.529 | 1.528 | 1.376 |
| France | 1.116 | 1.067 | 0.641 |
| Germany | -0.264 | -0.232 | -0.05 |
| Italy | 0.715 | 0.726 | 0.44 |
| Mexico | 3.295 | 1.454 | -0.26 |
| New Zealand | 1.811 | -0.483 | 1.372 |
| Norway | 0.072 | 2.1 | 2.137 |
| Spain | 2.673 | 3.151 | 2.501 |
| Switzerland | 0.743 | 1.269 | 0.876 |
| United Kingdom | 0.397 | 1.101 | 1.077 |
| United States | 2.887 | 2.796 | 1.826 |
| Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2025, data sets | |||
A second claim is that the policies of the Liberal-Socialist alliance “scared away global investment to the tune of over a half a trillion dollars.” This claim was also made in an interview with Breitbart News. However, She nor the Government of Alberta have not made public the list of projects shelved because of the so-called Liberal-NDP alliance’s policies. One major investment project in Alberta that was cancelled in February 2020 was the$20-billion Teck Frontier oilsands development and Teck did state regulatory uncertainty was an issue.
However, global capital markets are changing rapidly and investors and customers are increasingly looking for jurisdictions to have a framework in place that reconciles resource development and climate change, in order to produce the cleanest possible products. This does not yet exist here today and, unfortunately, the growing debate around this issue has placed Frontier and our company squarely at the nexus of much broader issues that need to be resolved. Teck CEO Don Lindsay to Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, February 2020
Most recently the primary cause of investments being shelved, including the much ballyhooed and heavily government-subsidized Dow Fort Saskatchewan “Net-Zero” petrochemical expansion, are due to Trump’s chaotic tariff policies.
Finally, Her claims about Ottawa “destroying” the oil industry simply does not accord with the facts. Rather this is an example of Smith manufacturing a reality that doesn’t exist. In spite of known federal environmental commitments made at Paris in 2015, the oil and gas industry has continued to expand since the invasion of Ukraine, enjoyed healthy profits.
As Ian Urquhart has noted the federal government agreed to subsidize oilsands development and the oilsands industry have been given generous a generous emissions cap. Moreover, from 2014 Alberta’s oil and gas production has grown from 2.53-milllion barrels of production a day to 3.7-million barrels. Despite the efforts tof Stephen Guilbeault, Smith and Schulz’s favourite whipping boy , oil and gas emissions of CO2 have risen by 72 per cent since 1990. While CO2 emissions have fallen in the sector since peaking in 2014, growth continues with the oilsands (see figure below).
Premier Smith’s constant attacks against the federal government both in the Legislative Assembly, public addresses and interviews with friendly media outlets are now going to be channeled through the “Alberta Next” panel she will chair “composed of some of our best and brightest judicial, academic and economic minds.” In addition, She is to appoint a special negotiating team “to represent our province in negotiations with the federal government on the following reforms requested by our province.” These actions underline how serious Smith is taking the question of a fundamental restructuring of Alberta’s constitutional status. Presumably if the federal government refuses to play ball, this too will be held up as a factor in support of some type of independence. The circus will be in town for a few more months.
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