Updated 3 May 2025
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Explanatory comment
I have been working on this question for the better part of three weeks spurred on my the concatenation of Her fiery speech to the Legislative Assembly on 26 March, Her attacks on Carney and the trip to PungurU and Ben Shapiro, revealed She was exploring the idea of independence (“from Ottawa) or statehood (“Texas of the North). As this blogs shows it is charitable to say Smith is “flirting” with separatism. It’s doubtful there was that much open animosity between Ottawa and Quebec during 2 referenda. Smith’s fiery speech might be compared to pre-Civil War missives from the south to Washington.
Rebel News
Four days later Smith continued Her promotion of Alberta fossil fuel interests with a friendly interview with Ezra Levant’s Rebel News. Levant began by promoting the idea of monetizing the150 billion barrel bitumen reserves. Smith parried that noting Alberta can ”easily double production.” She emphasized again and again that Alberta “owns the resources,” and She was interested in both European sales and a deal with the U.S. Defence department (395,000 barrels per day). Other big purchasers include China National Petroleum Corporation and Exxon Mobil.
To Levant’s query- “what is your value proposition”, the Premier responded that Alberta ships $100-billion of oil and the American turn it into $300-billion of higher value products some of which is bought by Canada. What’s not to like about that economic relationship? WHo would not want to ship out $100 of raw product and pay out $300 to rebuy the products.
Levant added, possibly with tongue in cheek, “there are no Houthis to worry about.”
Alberta News
Continuing Her frenetic media relations campaign, the next day, 19 March, Smith issued another release entitled “Protecting Alberta from unconstitutional federal overreach.” In this extraordinary challenge to federal jurisdiction, Smith declared there would be a ”single source of truth” and new provisions would stop the federal government from going directly to fossil fuel companies for information. Smith proudly declared that “it’s our data,” adding that ”companies would be happy” about this move. I bet.
During the news conference, flanked by Mickey Amery the Justice minister and Mike Ellis the Public Safety minister, Smith gave the example of federal officers having had the temerity to ask a Saskatchewan farmer to test the water on the farmer’s land! Ellis agreed with the premier saying that the “federal government should not have the right to enter private property in Alberta.” Smith reiterated several times that since Alberta owns the resources and licenses companies, this meant that Alberta had the constitutional right to be that single source of truth, because in Smith’s own words “we own the data.”
But think about this. Should there be another eruption at an oil sands tailings ponds, and the AER’s customary disinterest, should not a Carney government not have the legitimacy to start directly questioning who is in charge?
Contra Carney
Following this media event, Smith “agreed” to meet with the new prime minister. Shortly after the meeting Smith published her list of nine demands previewed a week before (see Part 1). She stated
“I also made it clear that Alberta, as owner of the resource, will not accept an export tax or restriction of Alberta’s oil and gas to the United States, and that our province is no longer agreeable to subsidizing other large provinces who are fully capable of funding themselves.
I encourage all Albertans to get involved in what is likely one of the most pivotal and important elections in our nation’s history, and to support the party and candidates that have consistently advocated for freeing Alberta from federal overreach and the repeated economic attacks our province has faced from Ottawa over the past 10 years.”
Following this, in another release she demanded Carney clearly state his position on the federal emissions cap. “I made it clear Alberta will no longer tolerate an emissions cap on oil and gas”(emphasis added), She said followed by the familiar refrain of mistreatment of Alberta by the federal Liberal government over the past decade.
I made it clear Alberta will no longer tolerate an emissions cap on oil and gas – which absolutely works like a production cap that scares away billions in investment and thousands of jobs, makes us more dependent on the United States, and has been found by Ottawa’s own Parliamentary Budget Office to be greatly destructive to the Canadian economy.
This has been the same story for the last 10 years. Liberals come to Alberta – smile for the cameras – tell everyone how much they are going to work with Alberta and support the energy sector. Then they leave, go home, and proceed to do everything in their power to roadblock and scare away investment from the energy sector (emphasis added).
On the 26th of March She fired off a release to address the criticisms of her trip to Florida again to speak to PragerU and also to dialogue with Ben Shapiro. Smith appeared incensed about this criticism reiterating Her diplomatic efforts to build ties with influential America media outlets. She noted that PragerU’s “The Daily Wire” had a monthly network of 220 millions including 25 million followers of Shapiro’s own social media platforms.
Countering criticisms she was being a traitor to Canada
This was then soon followed by an address to the Legislative Assembly ostensibly on tariffs but directed at Nenshi and the NDP who had been highly critical of Smith’s taxpayer-funded trips to Florida to speak to right-wing media and her failure to come on board to the Team Canada approach. She began
Now, all of a sudden, it is treason to talk to American media personalities that we disagree with. . It is disloyal to try and persuade high-profile Republicans holding influence with the President to abandon his tariff policies on Canada. Indeed, it is a high crime to try and convince U.S. officials to refrain from imposing tariffs until after our country has an elected leader with a strong mandate (emphasis added).
Critics’ use of words like treason and disloyal had obviously gotten through to the Premier. This salvo was then followed by Her standard accusation of the “utter incompetence of Liberal and NDP policies inflicted upon this country over the last 10 years.” This includes the usual litany of complaints about Ottawa stopping energy development, adding
Canada has indeed been sold out – big time – and it’s been sold out by the utter incompetent, self-righteous and extreme policies of Liberal and NDP leadership across this country (emphasis added).
Furthermore
And what does Team Carney want me to do? They want me to abandon my post, remain in Alberta and do absolutely nothing to defend our province. They want me to cower in the face of eastern media pundits and politicians who favour political grandstanding to effective diplomacy. I’m fiercely criticized for going into the lion’s den to change the hearts and minds of the very Americans we need on Canada’s side to avoid a trade war with the most powerful economy on Earth. We will not be pushed around and called traitors for merely having the courage to actually do something about our nation’s and province’s predicament other than merely indulging in self-righteous tantrums (emphasis added).
Without doubt this is the most hyperbolic, emotive, hyper-partisan attack in a very long time by a provincial premier and that is saying quite a bit given Smith’s penchant for attacking the federal government since assuming office. Nowhere was there an acknowledgement that the carbon tax was being axed. This reaction, contrary to Her usual manner of reasonable, soft spoken dialogue with friendly media folks, suggests She is facing pressure from separatists within her party pushing to go to the polls in a referendum on Alberta independence. The use of the bazooka was a few days before the election call when polls were increasingly favourable for the Liberals. However, for Smith to suggest She was going into a “lion’s den” stretches the imagination given the friendly audiences she was talking to.
Smith is now facing a critical choice, not unlike her fateful decision in the fall of 2014 to cross the floor to join the Progressive Conservatives. She is undoubtedly pulled between a desire to “make Canada work for Alberta” and being totally fed up with the federal government frustrating her plans to expand the oil industry.
PragerU
On 2 April Ms. Smith sat down with PragerU’s Merissa Streit for an hour long chat about Smith’s diplomatic efforts to address tariffs and her various anti-woke policies. She spoke about getting through the “rough patch” with America and her desire to reach “influencers” who can change the U.S. administration’s posture on tariffs.
She spoke of reversing 10 years of cancel culture, the dangers of government empire-building, and taking obvious pride in referring to her province as “Texas of the North.” She also made the false claim that $278-billion of projects had been cancelled by the federal government. To a question about her legislation about trans children she dismissed criticisms as “emotional reaction from the activists.” The interview concluded on a high note with Smith holding that “reasonable ideas will always win.”
“Personal Victory”
That day was also pivotal as Trump blinked temporarily on tariffs and Smith praised the deferment as a great personal victory– “This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.” However, while Alberta energy was exempted as a USMCA trade compliant export, there didn’t seem to be much sympathy for workers in the steel and aluminum sectors. She forecast that the “worst of the dispute is behind us; reiterated her call to make Canada less vulnerable to U.S. markets, and called for “fast-tracking energy corridors and for federal politicians to get out of the way of provincial resource development “ (emphasis added).
At a 7 April news conference introducing Acute Care Alberta with Adriana LaGrange, several direct questions were posed to the Premier about what Alberta would do should the Liberals form the next federal government. According to veteran political reporter Graham Thomson, reporting about that news conference, Smith is claiming to be a Canadian while ”flirting with separation.” As standard fare, She reworked in “ten years of economic devastation,” agreeing that mounting frustration was a factor in Preston Manning’s Globe and Mail opinion piece entitled “Mark Carney poses a threat to national unity.”
Smith damns new Liberal government, praises Poilievre for Alberta agenda
Smith’s comments on the results of the federal election are insulting to Canadians and Albertans. There was a terse congratulations followd by two paragraphs of praise for Pierre Poilievre, including the startling statement “While Liberals and New Democrats demeaned and demonized Albertans, our values and our industries for political gain, Mr. Poilievre made empowering Albertans and our energy sector a cornerstone of his campaign” (emphasis added).
[Ms. Smith must however take some satisfaction at the dominance of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) in Alberta which contributed 34 of 37 available seats to the CPC column and where the CPC took 63.5 per cent of the popular vote.]
In the release she extended an “invitation” to the Prime Minister to:
to immediately commence working with our government to reset the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta with meaningful action rather than hollow rhetoric. A large majority of Albertans are deeply frustrated that the same government that overtly attacked our provincial economy almost unabated for the past 10 years has been returned to government” (emphasis added).
The tone is changing. She is now warning publicly of Her government’s commitment to change the status quo, saying “we will no longer tolerate having our industries threatened and our resources landlocked by Ottawa” (emphasis added). As the old saying goes “Them’s is fighting words.” The release concluded by announcing she will meet with her caucus on Friday to “discuss this matter further.” Friday incidentally is the day that the NDP provincial convention in Edmonton opens.
But there was more to come. The day after the federal election, Smith and her colleague Mickey Amery brought forward amendments to seven pieces of legislation to “strengthen democracy.” These measures, heavily influenced by American measures, will give wealthy Albertans and business an edge with the ban on corporate and union donations eliminated.
According to Professor Jared Wesley of the University of Alberta, while individual reforms might seem reasonable, taken collectively these reforms “are the latest is a long list of democratic transgressions” in Alberta. Particularly frightening are changes to the requirements to initiate a referendum. Bill 54, the Elections Statutes Amendment Act, 2025 will now permit citizens initiatives on constitutional issues requiring only 10 per cent of the total number of votes cast in the previous general election and extends the time to collect signatures. The latter will also apply to MLA recall. When pressed several times on her thoughts about a separatism referendum at her press conference. Smith said She “believes in a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” whatever that means.
Finally, on May Day she issued a constitutional challenge against the federal government’s “unconstitutional net-zero legislation.” Flanked by Mickey Amery, the Justice minister and Her Environment minister Rebecca Schulz, the cannons were blazing. Reprising an earlier fight against Ottawa purportedly causing widespread electricity failure, the rhetoric reached epic proportions. Placing great store on the analysis of the Alberta Electric Systems Operator, the Premier noted “The results (of the federal regulations) are ineffective, unachievable and irresponsible, and place Albertans’ livelihoods – and more importantly, lives – at significant risk.” This despite the fact that “Ottawa,” when finalizing the rules, gave the country’s fossil fuel a 15-year reprieve under the Clean Electricity Regulations under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999.
Is Smith a separatist or annexationist?
As I noted earlier, Smith is coming to a crossroads on whether she formally throws herself into the separatist or annexationist camp or continues to “flirt” with separatism. She is actively fanning the flames of grievance, discontent, and anger- core ingredients to separatist feelings. The existence of 11 of Her MLAs who back a referendum will pose a challenge, but is perhaps to the premier’s liking. There may be several or many more MLAs who may dream of an independent Alberta sitting in a state capitol building.
Back in 2014, Smith faced a choice- carry on with the Wildrose Party with uncertain electoral prospects, or join the natural governing party- the Progressive Conservatives. Smith and her partner Rob Anderson did not fully assess the consequences of their floor crossing. Still, she is premier and Anderson is her deputy and both may think the earlier gambit worked out in the end.
As I wrote in January, (Danielle Smith’s Pretext) the political winds favoured Smith with a win by Trump and with tariffs threatening Canada’s very existence. Given tariff uncertainty and her mission in promoting Alberta’s (and Canada’s?), Smith’s extensive networks of conservative politicians and media personalities may, in Her mind, justified taxpayers paying for her frequent visits to Washington and Florida. Under the guise of soft diplomacy, she has courted right wing media outlets and met “influencers” behind closed doors.
We do not know what she has been saying in conservative salons in the United States.
Back in January, I speculated that if Smith nurtures the idea of becoming the 51st state in these meetings, it would not be a stretch to think she may be readying her bureaucracy to undertake economic and financial studies of the impact of joining the United States as a “Texas of the North,” The pretext is largely fulfilled with a returning Liberal government who might for once take climate change seriously and permanently kibosh Smith fantasies of doubling oil production.
My guess now is that Smith will announce this Friday the establishment of a committee to investigate the pros and cons of separating from Canada, including the possibility of joining the United States as a 51 state. This would include economic studies and mechanics of how a referendum would work.
At the NDP provincial convention this Friday a warm rendition of O Canada could be heard. The next day separatists and annexationists were protesting at the Legislature for the second time in less than one week. The first drew maybe a dozen people while the second rally was estimated in the hundreds. Many attendees waved Alberta flags, and some even displayed U.S. flags.
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