The character of political leaders is critical to success of the society governed by the leaders. Frequently cited characteristics of political leadership include trustworthiness and honesty. Good interpersonal and organizational skills and judgement are other desirable qualities.
Danielle Smith
Smith’s character has been mainly evaluated on her judgement in giving up the Wild Rose leadership and joining the Progressive Conservative caucus under the late premier Jim Prentice. This move drew outrage from her supporters leaving the party in a lurch just months before the election writ was dropped. This action caused a split in the conservative vote producing an unexpectedly large win by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. The Wild Rose under Brian Jean did much better than anticipated winning 21 seats to the PCs nine seats. To her critics, her action meant she would betray the heart of the Wildrose Party for a potential cabinet chair. (An informed source suggests the offer to Smith and Rob Anderson was withdrawn in face of a caucus rebellion.) The implication from this decision is she would betray party principles for power. IIs Danielle Smith trustworthy?
Another concern is that Smith is a divisive figure. Her sovereignty act has been characterized in many quarters as reckless unnecessarily stirring up images of the 1980s Western Canada Concept party. Other controversies include her handling of the “Lake of Fire pronouncements” at the end of the 2012 campaign and the naturopathy imbroglio do not suggest a “steady hand” type of government. Her stance on climate change in the past has equivocal suggesting an anti-science bias. Currently she supports the “net-zero” approach to environmental policy. To her credit, she at least has a position.
That said, she is telegenic, smart and a consummate political communicator. She is as smart on policy matters as the other candidates despite not having been in government. She is strategic in the sense that she and collaborator Rob Anderson have carefully choreographed her political resurrection. Her campaign has consistently defined issues to be debated. Her talk show hosting was a relative success and editorials kept her name top of mind. Various appearances moderating conservative think tank conferences have allowed her to develop a strong network helping money flow in.
One particular issue which speaks to character is her flipflop on the sales tax. In a September 2020 column she proposed a five per cent sales tax. In July this longstanding column was exposed providing ammunition for Toews and Jean. Smith quickly responded by accusing her leading opponents of a “smear campaign” and dismissing her column as “past musings” all the while suggesting Toews advocated for a sales tax as finance minister. This controversy quickly died down because Albertan politicians refuse to talk about the merits or disadvantages of a PST. Her reaction reveals that her policy positions are malleable. As situations unfold, principles may be abandoned for short-term political advantage. 
A Danielle Smith premiership will be controversial and her main operational challenge will be the management of at least a dozen of MLAs who will question the wisdom or the party electing Smith as leader.
Travis Toews
Travis Toews uses testimonials to burnish his character credentials. These testimonials and endorsements emphasize values like faith, family, integrity, humility, hard-work, stability, predictability, genuineness, intelligence, trustworthiness, strategic, capable and a “true leader.”
Following Toews as Finance Minister shows he is a man of commitment although holding the line on expenditures is not everyone’s cup of tea. He has been loyal to Kenny but perhaps to loyal to a fault.
On specific files such as public pensions and AIMCo he did not consult with the ATA or the ATRF and other affected groups when he introduced Bill 22. His actions created great uncertainty and unnecessary anxiety for teachers and other pension plan members. In giving back to AIMCo its previous monopoly in managing public pension plans (despite no UCP platform pledge), suggests he accepts ideas uncritically. Imposing of the investment management agreements without consultation raises questions about how consultative his government would be. The appointment of the important MacKinnon commission with a mandate excluding public consultation also raises doubts about his openness to contrary thinking. Finally, allowing the AIMCo board to deal with the Volatility Trading Strategy showed he was conveniently hands off an independent provincial agency. His judgment in appointing Mark Wiseman as AIMCo chair remains to be assessed
Toews does not exude a charismatic personality like Smith. He sticks to his speaking notes. The desire to consult on moving the CPP to AIMCo and setting up an Alberta police force are praiseworthy but his track record of consultations is poor. Perhaps the greatest strike again Toews’s character is his participation with Kenny and his patio cabinet drinking at the Federal Building. This suggests he is willing to “go along with the boys” in behaviours which he knew, or should have known, were wrong.
If Toews wins the premiership he will have his hands full reconciling his strong “provincialism” with the strong separatist feelings in the province. His appeal to unity to ensure Rachel Notley is not elected must be his sole focus after his election. That will mean reaching out to Smith and assuaging her separatist followers. Needless to say this will not be easy!
Brian Jean
Brian Jean self-describes as a “grandfather and a husband. “He is a proud Albertan and a huge defender of our energy industry and his home town of Fort McMurray.”
“He is the youngest of eleven. Brian grew up doing the sorts of things that boys do in rural Alberta and he became an accomplished outdoorsman, hunter, and athlete.” He decided to “improve himself” by obtaining a law degree and MBA from Australia’s Bond University in Queensland, Australia’s Gold Coast. This followed a stint as a salesman at Xerox in the 1980s. Since 2004 he has been a politician representing Fort McMurray as a federal M.P., a Wildrose MLA and opposition leader and now a UCP Member of the Legislative Assembly. His political successes include bringing the Wildrose Party its best ever electoral results in 2015. “In 2017 he and Jason Kenney signed the deal that created the United Conservative Party. And you likely know the rest.”
Jean strikes me as a bit of a lone wolf. A nice fellow but someone who keeps his own counsel and takes full ownership over all his campaign messages. He has been an effective political operative, strategic in his planning and execution. Some may regard him as a courageous outsider who kept the heat on Kenney and to force Kenney out, attempting to preserve the vision of the UCP party. By accomplishing his goal of removing Kenny as leader he has a demonstrated ability to focus on a goal and to successfully prioritize the means to achieve the goal.
In the unlikely event of a Premier Jean he may be in the best situation of the three to unite the party he helped create. Having been in Alberta politics for 18 years, he has a formidable reputation and has earned the respect of many in the UCP allowing the party merger to proceed practically guaranteeing the UCP’s election victory. He is clearly a “results-oriented guy.” Even though outfoxed by the infamous kamikaze charade Jean has returned to orchestrate the leadership vote that punted Kenney. He is a political survivor. Should Smith or Toews win the leadership, Jean is someone they must court.
Prospects in the 2023 election
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll offers some insight into the current thinking and voting preferences of a sample of Alberta’s electorate. On the question of how respondents viewed the UCP candidates, Smith led with 26 per cent, Jean at 24 per cent and Toews at 16 per cent. Of those who voted UCP in 2019 44 per cent support Smith, 36 per cent support Jean and 23 per cent like Toews. This suggests that Jean has more public support than Toews who had a relatively low profile until recently. Clearly fund-raising and the support of Shaping Alberta’s Future appear to have bumped Toews into second place.
On the question of whether it would be a good thing if these individuals became premier, 42 per cent said it would be “bad” or “terrible” if Smith became premier, 16 per cent said that for Toews, and 21 per cent thought a Jean ministry would be terrible for Alberta. However among UCP voters in 2019, 37 per cent felt Smith would be bad as opposed to 24 per cent for Toews and 32 per cent for Jean. For NDP supporters, Smith was regarded as the bad or terrible choice. A Smith victory would or should mobilize NDP support going into an expected May 2023 election.
Respondents were also asked to assess a Notley premiership. Among Albertans, 45 per cent thought this would be terrible. Fifty-two per cent of males surveyed agreed with that assessment while only 38 per cent of females supported this view. Fifty-eight per cent of Albertans older than 58 think Notley would be terrible but this drops to 46 per cent for those younger than 55.
On a regional basis, Notley is less disliked in Edmonton (36 %) while in Calgary (43%) and the rest of Alberta (55%) her numbers are worse. Calgary will be focal point of the 2023 election. Under any of the front-runners, their profile is not strong in Calgary. Smith worries the oil interests because of her sovereignty act and neither Toews or Jean are local boys.
If people were to vote, respondents favoured the UCP over the NDP by six percentage (See Table below). Since Kenney’s resignation of in May, the UCP has regained the lead in voter intentions. The publicity halo effect of the leadership campaign likely explains the rise in the UCP’s electoral fortunes.
Next year’s election will be one of the most fiercely competitive in Alberta political history with both parties flush with cash and members. The election will be a referendum on two very different competing visions of the province and it’s future. The battleground will be Calgary and some of the five smaller urban areas of the province. A key focus of the NDP may be the fifty-four constituencies they captured in 2015.
| he Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey Sept. 19 – 22, 2022 among a representative randomized sample of 598 Albertan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. |
Source: https://angusreid.org/ucp-leadership-review-sovereignty-act-danielle-smith-toews-jean/
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