Initial Reactions -Alberta 2023 election- Opinion and Analysis

38 NDP,

UCP 48, 

“Independent” Jennifer Johnson polled ahead with 5,789 votes to the NDP’s Dave Dale’s  2,477 votes in the Lacombe-Ponoka riding,

 

These numbers  may change with recounts. https://results.elections.ab.ca/8400 

Official tally will be Thursday late next week 

Will know the actuals to March 31 2023 at the end of June when consolidated financial statements are published.  For 2023-24 the first quarter results will be published by the end of August.  Budget 23-24 used $79 U.S. per barrel. To the end of May from April 1 WTI has averaged $75 U.S. Each dollar difference for a full year is worth $630-million so this is $2.52-billion which eliminates the expected surplus and doesn’t account for all the promises and tax decreases in the election.

 

 

Gone if this price averages$75 U.S. per barrel over the rest of year.

 

Although most election pundits talked about three Albertas- Calgary, Edmonton, and rest of Alberta, it is more accurate to consider 5 Alberta’s.   Metro Calgary 26 seats, Metro Edmonton- 20 seats, smaller centres outside Edmonton 6 (e.g. St. Albert, Beaumont Leduc- rurban), small cities- 11, smaller cities outside Calgary – Okotoks,  Airdrie, Cochrane, and Chestermere-4, and rural Alberta- 21. In the later category only one turned NDP- Banff-Kananaskis. Nathan Neudorf in Lethbridge East, the deputy premier, survived a close race and will remain in cabinet.

 

Of the 48 UCP seats, 12 seats are Calgary, In mid sized cities the UCP did well- 9 from Medicine Hat, Red Deer, Grande Prairie, Red Deer, Lloydminster and Fort McMurray. The only split came in Lethbridge with Shannon Phillips winning her seat. Adriana LaGrange won in Red Deer North and will retain a senior cabinet role. From Grande Prairie -Todd Loewen will have a senior seat in Smith’s cabinet.

 

In the Edmonton donut, key to an NDP’s path to victory, the party only gained one seat in  Sherwood Park. In Strathcona -Sherwood Park- Nathan Glubish retained his seat and he will be in cabinet,   In Morinville- St Albert- Dale Nally retained his seat and will also be back in cabinet, possibly in a senior role.

I know you love spreadsheets so I am sending you Excel sheets with party standings and voting result by constituency from Elections Alberta on 31 May at 3:30 p.m.  The UCP and NDP accounted for 96.61 % of the votes with the remaining 3.39 per cent split between the Alberta Party (4.282) and an independent (12,178) and the Independence Party of Alberta with nearly 5,200 votes. Another party the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta took 825 votes. Also see the Wiki entry 

Anything that is a significant and stable is better than nothing- A 5% sales tax would bring in $5-billion. It’s easy to implement if harmonized with the GST (HST) and is simple and less costly to administer. The Alberta Harmonized sales tax would be enough to manage most ups and downs in bitumen/oil prices but not more extreme events (COVID, Ukraine War).

 

The superior solution is to limit resources revenues to, say, 10 per cent which would be $7.6 billion of Budget 2023 (February) of total revenue of $76-billion- the General Revenue Fund, leaving nearly $20-billion will gush in into savings or debt repayment.  To get out of that conundrum the provincial government seriously needs to consider- privately- how sustainable our finances would be if the government required a referendum to raise taxes? 

 

This scenario is now possible with proposed additions to the Taxpayers Protection Act which only applied to a retail sales tax. What that means in practice is that the government would have to convince the population that taxes will never go up.  This is a fairy tale in the real world.  But there are many who believe in this garden of low taxes and continued privatization and eviscerated public services as the best world to live in.  An American viewpoint of some Albertans but I doubt this fairy tale appeals to a majority of Americans chronically underinsured, late on their credit card bills, regularly in fear of the call’s of a bill collector, and employment opportunities without benefits and salary to move out of home. 

 

Of note is now the fact that many voters are going to vote before election day. 52.9 per cent of voters voted on election day compared with 42.9 per cent of the toral voting population voting before election day.  A trend worth watching. I had a sense that strong turnout in the advanced polls meant danger for governing party. This was  incorrect.

Smith, to her credit,  silenced dissent within the party by reaching out to her opponents and locking in their silence until after the election.   The offer of cabinet spots still motivates some politicians- perhaps they think they can influence policy which increasingly is centralized and determined in the Premier’s office. This election victory will reinforce her ascendancy within the party as well as the Premier’s office.

 

I think it will be a watch and wait for at least a year with Smith. If she gets through the Speech from the Throne, her First Budget, and her first legislative session endorsed by a majority of voters.   

 

Should Smith act soberly with her charm and positional power (to decide who is in or out of cabinet), both directly and through senior staff, she will build more credibility within party circles.

The composition of the UCP’s board of directors is divided into three parts- 1) 2 Members of Legislative Assembly presumably elected by secret ballot 2) eight officer positions including Leader, President, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary, and Vice-Presidents for communications, fund-raising, membership, and policy and governance. 

 

Presumably all the officers are Smith appointments which would give Smith automatic support her position. She is the first of equals- primes inter pares and through Take back Alberta have deep roots of supporters in constituency associations.

 

How she operates independently of Take Back Alberta is another matter. David Parker brought Jason Kenney down through an organization supporting grassroots principles in the party.  To the extent Parker, and not Smith, control constituency associations means Carter’s influence over policy is to be watched. 

Other “non-partisan” organizations like the Free Alberta Strategy, the Alberta Institute and Project Confederation all quasi-separatist organizations have the capacity to mobilize unrest particularly if Smith does not stand up to Ottawa.

 

We can expect that battles with Ottawa over emissions reductions will dominate the Smith agenda over her first year in office. Already there are hints that Ottawa’s delayed emissions reduction strategy will be met with provisions of Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act

 

The main problem faced by Smith in building a cabinet is the absence of representation from Alberta’s capital city. Notions of a council of defeated city UCP candidates is absurd and an affront to the 20 NDP Edmonton MLAs whose job is to represent the interest of all their constituents. This deficiency will be partly addressed with two or perhaps three Edmonton donut representatives.  But this will not diminish the fact that the majority in a Smith will be dominated by  rural and small city MLAs. 

 

With so many divisive social and economic issues where half of the population disagree vehemently with each other it will be a dramatic legislative session. many of these tensions are mostly petty- in the big scheme of things. Some issues arise out of fairy tales, urban myths, legends which we believe in to our peril. I hope more and more of us agree with the desire to connect rather than disconnect.