To watch the conversation click here.
In the second of a series of conversations with well known Albertans, Bob Ascah speaks to Professor Lori Williams of Mount Royal University. This conversation was recorded on Thursday 18, before the leadership debate. The discussion delved into the 2023 election which, at just past the mid-point remained too close to call.
Ms. Williams identified health care and affordability as the key policy issues in this election. Other topics covered included how safe are the 41 “rural seats” for the UCP? Williams noted that during the 2019 election, Jason Kenney’s controversial history as a student at a San Francisco Jesuit seminary this was generally ignored in the campaign.
So why did Smith’s leadership opponents not dig out these controversial issues surrounding Danielle Smith during the leadership campaign? It’s unclear how Smith’s controversial policy pronouncements over the past decade will play out in the election. A key element in keeping unity was concern of an open split within the party. Williams emphasized the organization and growing power of Take-Back Alberta (TBA).
Key to Smith’s leadership win was the determined leadership of David Parker, the leader of who had turned against Premier Jason Kenney. TBA is a registered third party advertiser for this election.
A question debated hotly inside the UCP is whether Danielle Smith, if she wins, will be able to serve out her term. Indeed there were stories circulating that Calgary cabinet ministers and MLAs who are telling voters to vote for the UCP because they will get rid of Smith. Williams is doubtful that opposing centrist forces will be able to defeat Smith’s forces. How do you recreate something like the big tent like that kept the Tories in power for 44 years. How do you keep these forces rowing together.
Professor Williams questioned the logic of the UCP leaking a private Janet Brown poll which showed the UCP with a comfortable lead. “Why would the UCP leak this poll if these numbers were consistent with their internal polling?”
Another question is how impenetrable is the UCP’s rural fortress? Over a dozen seats include the cities of Red Deer, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray. These are highly contestable especially given rural municipalities upset by orphan wells, unpaid municipal taxes and the handling of coal mining in the eastern Rockies. Health care is also a critical issue in these centres.
The NDP have done a good job in attracting credible candidates who are respected professionals and roots in their communities.
A challenge facing the UCP are sharp criticisms by leading conservative voices such as Ken Boessenkool, Jeremy Farkas and Thomas Lukaszuk. She has also heard from persons who historically have voted for the conservatives but will vote NDP or not vote at all. 
Thomas Lukaszuk
On the economy Williams suggested that the effects of higher oil prices has not filtered down broadly to the broader public.
Trust and predictability in political leadership is an area where Rachel Notley enjoys an advantage over Danielle Smith but at this stage midway through the campaign Williams didn’t know if this will be a defining issue.
On environmental liabilities, Williams felt that while this is is probably long-term, the criticism of environmentalists is overdone. She spoke of Notley’s capacity to work with both industry and the federal government to get acceptance of the TMX pipeline. Finding a balance between the economy and environment will be a challenge. She pointed out that the only difference between Kenney’s and Notley’s environmental program was the revocation of the carbon tax (where Ottawa’s legislation brought a federal tax in place of Notley’s legislated carbon tax).