This past Wednesday I was invited to speak to the directors and executive management at the Real Estate Council of Alberta, or RECA. RECA is the regulatory body for Alberta’s real estate market. Alberta is unique as regulation of the real estate market is mainly in the hands of industry. For example the licensing and disciplining of real estate agents is conducted by RECA’s board of directors and councils. This is termed “industry self-regulation.” There is government oversight in the sense that the government appoints three of RECA’s seven-person board. RECA’s annual report a wealth of information for the various segments of the real estate market (real estate brokerage, mortgage brokerage, property management, and condominium management licensees). The website also hosts a great deal of information on the regulatory expectations of industry players and governing legislation.
My presentation including notes is viewable below. My talk on issues and prospects in the industry proceeded with a very high level analysis of the great dangers facing the globe including the “settling of old scores,” financial fragility, and the climate emergency. I cover themes which are found on Apolecon.ca including a reference to the Alberta government’s over-reliance on the goodwill of the Big Four’s CEOs whose 4 organizations contribute 25-30 per cent of Alberta’s own-source revenue.
The specific headwinds facing Alberta’s real estate market that will impact on its regulatory function include rising mortgage rates, a looming recession, prospects for international and interprovincial migration and a potential change in government.
I presented RECA with some basic information about the political parties’ preparedness for the May 2023 election. Also included were resolutions at the NDP convention respecting housing. I pointed out that under an NDP government there will be more focus on social housing, affordable housing, housing as a human right, and greater use of the Alberta Social Housing Corporation. Other themes include local sourcing, durability of building materials, and use of building codes for environmental goals.
Higher immigration to Canada as promised by the federal government will depend on both war and climate refugees and professionals looking for perceived opportunities and freedoms Canada is known for. However, the huge backlog (2.6-million according to CIC News) in approving applications is a great impediment and is frustrating for employers and relatives. Still the greatest uncertainty for Alberta is the timing and nature of the energy transition. The oilsands (Pathways Alliance) and conventional industry have great plans including blue hydrogen, modular nuclear reactors, and carbon capture and underground storage. I argued, given the oilsands industry decision to buyback shares, increase dividends, and repay, little investment in the oilsands other than operational maintenance, is occurring. It will be taxpayers’ financial assistance at the federal and/or provincial levels which will determine how the the energy transition develops in Alberta.
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Alberta-Real-Estate