Updated 15 October 2020 with correction to Chart 24 in Slide presentation
On Thursday 1 October, I gave the following Power Point presentation entitled “Alberta’s Halting Economic Recovery- Implications for Alberta’s Public Finances” to a local group of Rotarians. It was a rather sobering and depressing presentation.
Alberta’s Halting Economic Recovery-Rotary CLubThe presentation also gave me an opportunity to plug the edited collection A Sales Tax for Alberta: Why and How to published next year by Athabasca University Press.
In my view the present government is doing what a succession of provincial governments have done for decades: accept the myth that Alberta is defined solely by its economy and the economy IS the exploration, mining, development and production of fossil fuels. This mindset has clouded the decision-making of the provincial cabinet who continue to believe that the vast export surpluses in energy will continue forever and that the accumulation of massive environmental liabilities is a figment of radical environmentalists’ imaginations.
Alas, as recent announcements from the Royal Bank and a recent commentary by Eric Reguly suggest, the world is definitely tilting away from fossil fuels. Green investment may be well the latest fad according to Reguly and Premier Kenney, but the fad is not going away. Mr. Kenney will not turn his ship in that direction. Unfortunately, he has about 20 months left to turn the Alberta economic ship around or he may be looking for a new gig.
A good presentation Bob, loaded with data. I wonder how the audience felt.
I’m particularly struck by the table on slide 16. If I read it correctly, which is not guaranteed, the export value of oil and gas (and other minerals) is more than 100 times the export value of agriculture, forestry, and fishing combined. Is that the correct reading? I find that very sobering and a powerful indicator of Alberta’s over-dependence on oil and gas exports.
Kevin- these are export numbers but I confess that agriculture and forestry are very low. Statistics Canada Trade in goods by exporter characteristics, by industry of establishment (x 1,000) Table: 12-10-0098-01 (formerly CANSIM 228-0077) see the link at
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1210009801
It could well be that much of the forestry and agriculture is classified under manufacturing – paper, wood products, food manufacturing. The Statistics Canada website refers to Business Register so the tabulation of exports in linked back to individual corporate exporters as I understand it.
Bob, The slides are most interesting and comprehensive, and, as you said, depressing.
Question:
In Slide 22 (fig 3.2) on “annual deficit/surplus vs. adjusted deficit/surplus”, what is the nature of the adjustment?
David A
On slide 22 we subtract non-renewable resource revenue from the surplus or the deficit of that fiscal year. I have used data from Ron Kneebone and Margarita Williams.